November 12, 2016

Joe Sorensen covers his top sits and starts for fantasy football Week 10, using his matchup-based analysis. This week he focuses on wide receivers.

We are coming to the final four weeks of most fantasy football leagues. Wow. This season is certainly going fast. Some of us cannot wait for the playoffs to start; while others cannot wait for next year’s draft.

At this point, we need to recognize the truly incredible stat lines that some of the NFL greats have posted so far this season.

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A Quick Recap

Let’s start with WRs:

Julio Jones (ATL): 51 catches, 970 yards (19 ypc), 5 TDs

Tyrell Williams (SD): 38 catches, 595 yards (15.7 ypc), 3 TDs

Sammie Coates (PIT): 20 catches, 425 yards (21.3 ypc), 2 TDs

This shows that the superstars, sleeper picks and deep threats can all make an impact on your fantasy team, regardless of your place in the standings. Everyone knew that, if he stayed healthy, Jones would put up monster numbers. Williams is succeeding because of the injury to Keenan Allen in Week 1. Coates is the product of Ben Roethlisberger’s big arm and, if you can handle some duds, he will put up some monster games (see stats for Week 5 v. NYJ).

Will we be able to find these types of players for you this week as your head for the playoffs or as you sprint to the offseason?

Remember: These columns do not include your every-week starters. For this week, players like Julio Jones, Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks are not considered. This article goes deeper than that.

Best Start Possible – Eli Rogers v. DAL

Honestly, this game is probably going to end up as a close shoot out or a one-sided blowout. There is not in between with these two teams. For all intended fantasy purpose, we hope that it is a shoot out. This means more fantasy points and opportunities for players on our teams. Rogers is coming off a career-high 103 yards last week against the Ravens.

This week, the team is without Darius Heyward-Bay and Markus Wheaton. This means, at worst, Rogers is the number-three WR on the field. This week’s opponent, the Cowboys, are right in the middle of the league in pass defense, allowing 246 ypg. While their game plan is likely to take Antonio Brown and Le’veon Bell out of the equation, this should give Rogers the opportunities and targets he needed to have a strong day for your fantasy team.  

Quality Start –  J.J. Nelson v. SF

Who would not want to start a player playing against the worst defense in the league? That is exactly who Nelson gets this week. Before the bye, Nelson put up 8-79-2 on the Carolina Panthers, the fourth-worst pass defense. Now, the Cardinals play the 49ers. At home. After a bye week.

Everything is in favor of Arizona playing with a lead and taking shots down the field early. In road games this season, the 49ers allow 274 ypg. The opportunities will be there for all of the Cardinal weapons, including David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. But, if Bruce Arians wants to push the ball down the field, Nelson should see a bunch of targets this weekend.   

Worst Start Possible – Pierre Garcon v. MIN

This is the exact opposite compared to Nelson’s reasons to start him. Garcon is going against the fourth-ranked pass defense (206 ypg allowed) and has not had much success against the Vikings in recent history. Some of you may argue that Garcon has been playing strong as of late, considering he has caught at least four passes in six of eight games this season.

But, he only has one TD, gone over 60 receiving yards just once and been targeted more than seven times only once. Not to mention, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Washington. Someone from the group of Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder and Garcon should have a decent fantasy game, but it is hard to believe it would be the oldest member of the group, Garcon.

Not a Good Start – Jeremy Kerley @ ARZ

If you got a line of 8-102-1 from your WR each week, you would probably be happy with that. Would you be happy if it they were all from garbage time? Just look at Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson’s numbers from last season and that is the product of garbage time. That stat line is what Kerley produced against the Cardinals when the two teams met a few weeks ago. San Francisco lost 33-21, playing from behind all game.

Unfortunately for Kerley, that game was with Blaine Gabbert at QB, who is surprisingly more accurate than starting QB Colin Kaepernick. On the season, Arizona only allows 194 passing ypg. This means that seeing Kerley produce 102 yards again seems highly unlikely. Expect him to have two or three catches, his stat line in five of the eight games this season.

Have a player or position question you would like me to talk about? Follow me on Twitter @JSorensen119 and let me know.