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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 5/28/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, May 28th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, May 28th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-184)
O/U: 8.5
An interesting stat I came across in my research is that the Rays are 13-11 in their home ballpark, and have covered the run line in all 13 games. Clayton Richard is on the mound for the Blue Jays for his second start of the year, which means he should be on a lower pitch count which will make way for a below-average Blue Jays bullpen to finish the game. The Rays will be having a bullpen day today, but they come in with the third-best group in the Majors this season, boasting a 3.59 ERA.
The Blue Jays are 3-7 over their past 10 games and have been looking worse by the day. I expect the Rays to win again tonight, and I expect them to continue the trend of covering the run line.
My Pick: TB -1.5
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-153)
O/U: 8.5
The White Sox have scored nine runs over their past four games, and have seen their games go under in seven of ten games. The Royals have hit the over in five straight, but they have to go against Lucas Giolito today, who has allowed one or fewer runs in five of his past six starts. It's also important to note that they faced a much better offense in the Yankees over that five-game stretch, who didn't score less than six runs in any of the three-game series. I can't imagine a situation where there are many runs scored in this matchup.
My Pick: Under 8.5
Detroit Tigers (-116) @ Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9
I promised on the last article that I wouldn't pick the Orioles anymore this season, but here they are again in a good matchup. The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games which can't get much worst, except the Tigers, who are coming in with a 1-9 record. The Orioles are putting up good numbers against left-handed pitching, and Matthew Boyd has shown potential to be blown up by home runs, which is relevant at Camden Yards.
If Dylan Bundy didn't face the Twins and Yankees in five of his 10 starts this season, he would be having a decent year, as those two teams have burned him for 15 of his 27 earned runs. He faces a much-worse hitting team in the Tigers, who have a .278 team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He has two of his wins this season over his last four games, with both coming in scoreless outings.
My Pick: Orioles (-104)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-137)
O/U: 9.5
The Brewers and Twins have both only hit the over in five of their past ten games. The Twins are 10-16-1 in overs at their home ballpark this season, while the Brewers have only hit the over in 8 of their 26 games on the road.
We see Zach Davies coming off his first rough outing of the season, allowing six runs over three innings, but had been rock solid to that point, allowing 10 runs over his first nine starts. I will expect him to have a bounce back here. Devin Smeltzer will be making his first career start, with his sparkling 1.15 ERA in the minors this season.
My Pick: Under 9.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (-138)
O/U: 11.5
Going right back to the well here and picking on a Rockies pitcher who struggles in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Antonio Senzatela has a 7.27 ERA at home this season, with a 1-2 record. As you would expect with this ERA, he needed eight runs of support to pick up his only win. The Diamondbacks have been a better team on the road, coming in with a 17-13 record, while the Rockies are only 12-12 at home.
My Pick: Diamondbacks (+118)
