January 14, 2017

Nathan Powell's daily fantasy football (DFS) lineup sleepers and avoids for the Divisional Round of the NFL season. Target and avoid these DFS lineup picks.

Welcome back, RotoBallers. In this article, I will cover five of my favorite boom or bust DFS plays for Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. These players can make or break your daily fantasy football lineups in the NFL's Divisional Round weekend.

The Boom or Bust play is one of the most talked about aspects of fantasy football each week. Boom or Bust players can be used as lineup options in deeper leagues, when it appears you are a heavy underdog in your head-to-head matchup or even in Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments in DFS. Let's get rolling.

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Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers QB at KC

Ben Roethlisberger ended the season as QB7 in PPR points per game with only three of the quarterbacks ahead of him still alive in the playoffs. That should make him an attractive option in the divisional round. However, he is on the road against a Chiefs defense that allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

In addition to the tough road matchup, the weather will not be the friend of offensive play in this game as the game has been moved from 1 p.m. on Sunday to 8 p.m. to account for severe weather with 35 degree fahrenheit with a 90% chance of precipitation. Along with the weather, the game total of 44.5 is tied for lowest in the week and is likely to get lower with the weather updates. Getting your quarterback this weekend from one of the other games is the optimal move.

Verdict: Bust

Running Back

Thomas Rawls, Seahawks RB at ATL

Thomas Rawls had one of the most impressive performances in Wild Card Weekend with 27 carries for 161 rushing yards and 1 touchdown against the Detroit Lions. Rawls is still the only show in town in the backfield with CJ Prosise still sidelined, so Rawls should see similar volume in a projected shootout with a total of 51.5. The only real risk to the Rawls play is if the game turns into an offensive shootout with the Seahawks abandoning the running game. In the event that does happen, Rawls will likely be limited as he doesn’t excel in the passing game.

The Seahawks shouldn’t want to abandon the run as the Falcons have been vulnerable against running backs, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to running backs so far this season. Seahawks/Falcons is one of the two games this weekend that weather will not be a factor. And while it won’t exactly be a contrarian play, stacking players from this game could be a winning strategy in GPP tournaments.

Verdict: Boom

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs WR vs PIT

Due to limited playing time, even post-breakout, Tyreek Hill has been a boom/bust fantasy asset throughout his rookie season. While the big plays often came late in the season as he surpassed 10 PPR points in each of his last eight games, that doesn’t change the fact that he rarely played more than 50% of the Chiefs offensive snaps.

With the limited playing time, Hill is extremely big play dependent and he isn’t getting enough opportunities for that to be a safe proposition. Hill will be touted as a sneaky play with the weather and his snap count, but it isn’t worth the risk at this stage. You are better off using a wide receiver who is consistently in the game when his offense is on the field.

Verdict: Bust

Tight End

Martellus Bennett, Patriots TE vs HOU

Last week, everyone was on Jimmy Graham and everyone who faded him and his 6.7 PPR point performance were likely better off for it. This week, everyone is on Travis Kelce. If you are looking to fade the likely top owned tight end regardless of format, Martellus Bennett is an intriguing option. The Texans have been stingy against tight ends, allowing the third fewest points to the position per game, but that doesn’t change the fact this game is the one game this weekend that projects to not be close.

The Patriots are 16 point home favorites which should mean that the Patriots will be in the red zone early and often, creating scoring opportunities for Bennett who scored five receiving touchdowns on 10 red zone targets this season.  

Verdict: Boom

Hail Mary of the Week

In the Hail Mary of the Week, I will choose a Boom/Bust candidate who is available on the waiver wire or at the end of benches in most fantasy football leagues and could have a big week:

Cole Beasley , Cowboys WR vs GB

While many are paying up for Dez Bryant in DFS this weekend, the more sneaky/better play may be to go with the Cowboys No. 2 wide out. Beasley saw six or more targets in nine of 16 games this season and if he reaches that total once again, he will likely pay off his DFS price.

Beasley faces a Packers defense that has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Bryant will likely be double and triple teamed, opening up holes over the middle for Beasley to pick up consistent first downs. In the event that Beasley reaches the end zone with one of the projected 28.5 points(Over/Under of 53.5), he could be in the lineups of many top GPP teams.