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RotoBaller analysts have been giving you a sneak peak into our consensus Premium Tiered Rankings at each position with some in-depth analysis to help you prepare for your drafts. We already looked at catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, outfield, and today we tackle starting pitchers. The rest of our tiered rankings can be found in our 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit & Cheat Sheet.
Tiered rankings are critical for fantasy baseball drafts. Faced with the decision of drafting player X or Y at outfield, you need to have an idea of how those players stack up against each other. If they are in the same tier, you can wait on the more costly player, and draft the cheaper player instead. Knowing which tiers players are in will help avoid overpaying and also help spend your draft dollars or picks as wisely as possible.
Tiered Starting Pitcher Analysis
Quality starting pitching is absolutely essential for a fantasy team. I am a huge believer in drafting aggressively with pitchers and piecing together your lower-tier offensive players in the later rounds. It’s essential to have a staff that typically does not blow games or consistently puts up below-average stats, regardless of what format you play in. A five-inning, five run game can be devastating, so you want to make sure you’re picking solid, consistent, low-risk starters. Below I’ll provide a sneak peek into the fourth tier of RotoBaller’s Premium Tiered Rankings, which should help you make the right decision come draft day.
*Note: All round estimates are based on 10 or 12-team leagues.
Tier 4 - Second/Third Starters
These are the players you can wait on and still get great value from. You’ll be able to pick them up far later in most drafts than the top-tier players, so don’t be afraid to wait a little bit.
I was high on Alex Cobb coming into 2015, and despite the forearm tendinitis he’s currently dealing with I think he’s still got bona fide ace potential. He’ll miss at least a few starts at the beginning of the season, but fortunately this should lower his draft stock, allowing you to take advantage. I’m a sucker for a good split-change, and Cobb’s is nasty. He’s one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball when healthy, and I expect him to be outstanding again once he’s back. You’ll have no problem snagging him in the 6th-8th rounds, and you should jump on him when given the chance.
Carrasco’s value may be a bit overinflated following his incredible numbers in the second half of the 2014 season. While that’s a small sample size to base a higher draft pick on, I love the peripherals on this fireballing righty. He has surprisingly low walk rates for someone who relies on hard fastballs as often as he does, and with more than a strikeout per inning he should put up great fantasy numbers if he can keep it together for a full season. I’ve seen him go as early as the sixth round, but for a second or third starter like Carrasco I would wait until at least the ninth in either format.
There’s no other way to say it—Masahiro Tanaka has both the highest risk and highest reward of any player in this tier, and possibly of all starting pitchers. When healthy last year, Tanaka pitched like a top five ace. A devastating splitter and great control allowed him to take the league by storm. Over his first 16 starts, he had an ERA just over 2.00, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and more than a strikeout per inning. However, starting in July, he became very basic, and it was revealed that he was pitching through a partially torn UCL. It’s a borderline guarantee that a Tommy John surgery is in his future, and fantasy owners will hold their breath every time he takes the mound. I’d rather take a durable starter later on than waste an early-round pick on Tanaka, regardless of upside.
Julio Teheran has absolutely electric stuff, but in 2015 he’s going to come with a bit of risk. His fastball velocity has been trending downward since he entered the league, which can be cause for concern for several reasons. The Braves also lost a large chunk of their offense in the offseason, and I don’t see Teheran getting much in the way of run support. If he sticks around in the eighth round or later, go for it. I wouldn’t take him any earlier than that.
Jake Arrieta went from undrafted back-end guy to certified fantasy ace in 2014. His incredible stats were sustained for the season, and at the end of the day there is no reason to doubt his breakout performance. He’s going to be the number two in a much-improved Chicago Cubs team, and I expect him to be a number two in fantasy lineups as well. There’s nothing wrong with looking at him as early as the seventh round.
Anibal Sanchez looked like an ace in 2013, but regressed a bit in 2014, mostly due to a smattering of minor injuries. He should be fully healthy going into 2015, but his lackluster strikeout totals and modest ERA will keep him out of the top 20 starters. He’s still an above-average starting pitcher, so there’s no reason to shy away from him on draft day. I like his current ADP, and would begin looking his way around the 13th round or so.
The highly touted Gerrit Cole has been a better real-life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher thus far in his young career. He’s improved season-over-season, and I expect that trend to continue in 2015. If he can come close to 200 innings, he could approach 200 strikeouts thanks to his outstanding fastball and slider combination. If you can wait until the ninth round or so, you should have a tidy little profit come September.
Garrett Richards was well on his way to contending for the Cy Young in 2014 until he blew a patellar tendon in late August. He should miss no more than two weeks, which should lower his draft day value like Alex Cobb. Richards has improved every year as his pitching ability catches up with his throwing ability, and if he can stay healthy for a full season he could be a fantasy stud. This is one pitcher I feel safe drafting above his ADP, and I think grabbing him in the 11th round could be a great value pick.
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