RADIO
Is there an age when we should expect a decline from wide receivers in fantasy football? Michael F. Florio dives deep into the data and how to prepare for 2024.
We have all grown an emotional attachment to athletes over the years. It is especially easy to do so when that player goes off yearly and has led you to some great wins in fantasy football and some even better memories in real life. Maybe this player has even helped you win a title or two.
One of the hardest parts of fantasy football is being disciplined enough to leave that emotional connection on the side when that player begins to show some early signs of decline. You can still root for that player, but paying full price in fantasy is a foolish endeavor. The goal is to be a year early on getting out of an aging player, rather than a year late. Yes, we want to be the Bill Belichick of fantasy football as ruthless as that may sound.
This strategy will never work out 100% of the time and there will be occasions where you are out on a player and they still go on to have another strong year. But, the aging curve in football is swift and players can seemingly fall off out of nowhere. Think of former greats like Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Todd Gurley, and the long list of players who just seemed to lose their once-elite talent overnight. If you are disciplined in this regard, you will avoid being burned way more than you will miss out on a strong season. Trust me, this is a lesson I have had to learn the hard way over the years as it relates to fantasy football.
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Davante Adams, WR - Las Vegas Raiders
Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers in both the NFL and fantasy football for quite a while now. Last season, he posted 103 receptions, 1,144 yards, and eight touchdowns. For most wide receivers, that is a great season. For Adams, it was the fewest yards and touchdowns he has put up in a season since 2019 when he only played in 12 games. He finished as the WR10 in total points and as the WR15 at the position in fantasy PPG.
So, what caused the decline in production? You certainly cannot blame a lack of volume. Adams saw 175 targets, the second most of his career. He led the NFL in first-read target share (41 percent), and his 33 percent overall target share was the highest in the NFL since 2019. Adams also had 29 red-zone targets, which was the second most in the NFL in 2023. He also had the third-most air yards (1,896) but also had the third-most unrealized air yards (752). That leaves two big reasons that could explain such a big decrease in numbers: porous QB play and early signs of decline from Adams.
The latter will be a hard pill to swallow for the Davante stans out there. But Adams, in his age-31 season, did show the first signs of a falloff. First, he was creating less separation than ever before in the Next Gen Stats era, which started in 2016. On average, Adams created just 2.6 yards of separation, and his average before last season was 3.0. His 79.3 QB rating when targeted in 2023 was by far the worst of his career, with his average being 107.1. He also posted just a 9.2 rec EPA. His previous low, which came in 2022, was 39.3. To put that into perspective, he would sit in the 70s in rec EPA while in his prime. Adams also posted a low in yards over expectation. His -2.5 fantasy PPG over expected in 2023 was the third worst of all receivers.
I wanna take a quick look at some WRs approaching a potential age cliff:
Cooper Kupp (Year 8)
Amari Cooper (Y10)
Tyler Lockett (Y10)
Davante Adams (Y10)
Stefon Diggs (Y10)
Mike Evans (Y11)
Keenan Allen (Y12)
DeAndre Hopkins (Y12)Per the fantastic work of @RyanJ_Heath: pic.twitter.com/fY7J0l6FXr
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 12, 2024
It doesn’t just end there. Adams posted the fewest YAC in this span, despite playing with a QB that was more reliant on YAC than ever. Adams also put up his worst yards per route run since 2018 and the second-worst catch rate of his career. There have been way more tight-window throws Adams' way in the last two years as well, showing that he has not been the same separator as he once was. There were massive falloffs with Adams on the deep ball as well. He had just 102 yards on passes of 20-plus air yards last season. Now, you can blame some of that on the QB play -- but will it be much improved this year?
| QB | Rating | Comp % | xComp% | AY/A | EPA | Deep Pass Comp % | Deep Pass EPA |
| Aidan O'Connell | 83.9 | 62.1% | 64.4% | 7.4 | -32.7 | 30% | -0.9 |
| Gardner Minshew II |
84.6 | 62.2% | 63.8% | 7.5 | -37.6 | 39.6% | 22.4 |
Gardner Minshew brings a better deep ball than Aidan O’Connell. That certainly should help Adams, but it is not like this is a massive upgrade. I would expect the Raiders, regardless of which QB wins the battle, to operate similarly to how they did with Antonio Pierce last year.
They will throw when they have to but largely want to rely on the running game and defense. Adams' 17-game pace after Pierce took over was 183 targets, 106 catches, 1,143 yards, and nine touchdowns. That's almost identical to the numbers Adams finished with. His fantasy PPG was 16.3, compared to the actual 15.6 he finished with. That would have put him just outside the top-10 receivers.
So, he finished as the WR15 in fantasy PPG. With Pierce, he still would have been outside the top 10. Right now, his ADP has been fluctuating between WR11 and WR13 in best ball drafts. But in consensus rankings, he is firmly inside the top-10 receivers, which is what I expect come August when redraft leagues get going. Everyone knows Adams and how great he has been. He will likely be a mid-to-late second-round pick, potentially even higher. At that cost, you have to ask one important question: Can Adams outlive the production he gave us last year? Can he outproduce his pace with Pierce?
If you believe Adams can go back to putting up elite numbers, sure, take him. But given the QB play and the fact that the Raiders are likely not going to be one of the pass-happier teams in football, the most realistic expectation is that he puts up similar numbers to 2023.
If it is difficult for him to top those numbers, then you are drafting him at his ceiling and you are not getting any discount for the risk. I do not care how great Adams has been, when a receiver is heading into their age-32 season and has shown a decline in their metrics, the risk of a falloff is always there. Some can hold Father Time off than others, but he is undefeated for a reason. And falloffs in the NFL are never graceful and they tend to happen very quickly. That is the risk in taking Adams in fantasy this year.
In the last five years, only two WRs over age 31 have had 1,000+ receiving yards.
Some WRs who will be playing in their age-32+ seasons this year…
- Davante Adams
- Keenan Allen
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Adam Thielen
- Tyler Lockett— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) April 29, 2024
The most likely scenario is that he finishes somewhere around his ADP, but another slight falloff in his metrics would put even that in jeopardy. And with the upside likely not being what it used to be, the risk would need to be more factored into his ADP for me to feel comfortable drafting him. I will let someone else in my league pay the steep price to acquire him. As the old saying goes, I would rather be a year early than a year late.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR - Tennessee Titans
DeAndre Hopkins will be 32 years old heading into Week 1. Last season, he finished as the WR29 in fantasy PPG, but he would have been the WR17 with Will Levis. Hopkins had the most unrealized air yards in the NFL as well as the most deep passing targets. He was inconsistent week-to-week for fantasy purposes, but the long ball kept him afloat, which is what is concerning heading into 2024.
Last year, Levis led the NFL on deep-pass attempts (21 percent), hero throws (9 percent), and first-read throws (73 percent). With the Titans heavily investing in WR Calvin Ridley this offseason, as well as there being talk of him playing the Ja'Marr Chase role in Brian Callahan’s offense, Ridley is a huge threat to take over as the Titans' No. 1 WR and take many of those valuable targets away from Hopkins.
A decrease in volume, especially downfield, is not the only concern for Hopkins. He posted his worst rating when targeted, catch rate, and receiving EPA in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). D-Hop created the least separation since 2017 with a ton of tight-window throws going his way. Additionally, no wide receiver 32 or older has averaged 15-plus fantasy PPG since 2020. A lot is working against Nuk in 2024!
Top-15 fantasy campaigns by WRs age-32 or older (as of Week 1) over the last decade:
Julian Edelman 7th (2019)
Larry Fitzgerald 4th (2017)
Larry Fitzgerald 11th (2016)
Larry Fitzgerald 7th (2015)-
Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins are both entering their age-32 seasons.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 10, 2024
Hopkins is going at a reduced cost, so you do get the risk discount baked into his ADP. But he goes in a range where many upside receivers are going. Due to that, I often find myself taking shots at other players over Hopkins instead.
Tyler Lockett, WR - Seattle Seahawks
For years, Tyler Lockett has been one of the best and most underrated receivers in the NFL and fantasy football. Last season, he finished as the WR32 in overall points and WR38 in PPG at the position. He had been in the top 15 in each of the previous five seasons in total points among wide receivers. Plus, his 52.6 yards per game was his fewest since 2016. Lockett also caught just five touchdowns after finishing with at least eight in the five prior seasons. He has not reached 100 yards in 21 straight games.
Lockett's metrics also greatly declined in 2023. He posted a new low in rating, separation, and yards per target in the NGS era. He posted his lowest catch rate (64.8 percent) and yards per route (1.7) since he broke out in 2018. Lockett will turn 32 in September and that tends to be the age where receivers fall off. As stated above, no receiver that age has averaged 15 fantasy PPG in the last three seasons. Lockett also has to deal with a lot of target competition with DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a team with a defensive-minded head coach in Mike Macdonald and a first-time NFL offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb.
Tyler Lockett led the team in targets, but his efficiency is on the decline:
1.61 YPRR down from 1.89
2.8 YAC/R down from 3.1
11.3 YPC down from 11.9Lockett enters his age 32 season, while DK enter his age 26 season.
This is the prime age range for WRs in the NFL.
— Chris O'Brien (@17gamepace) June 5, 2024
He is cheaper than ever before, so if you want to bet on Lockett beating out Father Time for another year, you can. But the risk is that he bottoms out and is thrown back onto your league's waiver wire during the 2024 season.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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