RADIO
Robert's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves for Week 13 (11/28/2023). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.
We're officially getting down to the nitty-gritty. We are just two weeks away from most fantasy football playoffs getting underway and that likely leaves teams operating under different pretenses. Teams with playoff spots wrapped up can be a little more aggressive with their roster spots and who they continue to roster. Other teams who don't have a spot in the dance clinched yet may need to continue to operate on a week-to-week basis. With that said, it's important for fantasy managers to know what their weekly goals are.
Any player listed on the Cut List isn't a player that absolutely needs to be cut. They're just cuttable players, that's all. Each situation is different. Each league is different. If your league hordes quarterbacks, you may not have the luxury of dropping a struggling passer. It's important to understand and know your own leagues and know how your opponents value players. With that said, hopefully this article will give you some advice on which players you can safely send to the waiver wire.
Deciding who to cut can always be a difficult process, but it's important to take emotions out of the equation. Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-team leagues. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.
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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 13?
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – 69% Rostered
Smith has exactly two games with more than 16 points. He has two times more games where he's scored less than 10 points. The only two games where he scored more than 16 points came against Detroit and Washington. From Weeks 1-12, Washington has given up the most points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Detroit has given up the fifth-most. The production has been awful, but his remaining schedule might be worse. He'll play Dallas in Week 13, San Francisco in Week 14, and then he'll face the Eagles, Titans, and Steelers during the fantasy football playoffs. The Cowboys have allowed the 10th-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest. The Titans have allowed the 17th-fewest points and the Steelers have allowed the ninth-fewest. It's a brutal schedule. He has exactly one good matchup against the Eagles.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints – 44% Rostered
Michael Thomas is on IR. Rashid Shaheed is unlikely to play due to a quad injury. Chris Olave left last week's game with a concussion and will have to pass through concussion protocol before being eligible to play. Concussion recovery is different for everyone, but fantasy managers should consider Olave truly 50/50 at this time. That's his No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 receiver. He has a great matchup in Week 13 against Detroit, but without basically all of his best pass-catchers, there's no way anyone can start him with confidence, especially after his Week 12 dud against the Falcons who are allowing the eighth-most points to quarterbacks. Despite this, Carr still finished with less than 11 points. In Week 14, the Saints play the Panthers who have been stingy against quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-fewest points this season.
Running Backs to Cut in Week 13?
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans - 68% Rostered
From Weeks 1-8, Pierce averaged 7.4 half-PPR points per game. He averaged 47 rushing yards per game with 3.0 yards per carry. In those first seven games, he was held to under 40 yards in four of them. His highest rushing total was 81 yards. During that same stretch, Pierce earned just 12 targets. He caught nine of them for 84 yards. That amounts to just over one catch per game for 12 yards. He was essentially offering nothing in the passing game. Most, including myself, attributed his poor rushing efficiency to the endless injuries to the offensive line. Over the past two weeks, that’s become a very tough sell.
That’s because, in Weeks 10 and 11, Devin Singletary has rushed for 150 and 112 yards respectively on 30 and 22 carries. Singletary had a dud in Week 9 against a tough Tampa Bay defense where he finished with just 26 yards on 13 carries. However, even including that game, Singletary is averaging 96 yards per game and has a 4.4 yards per carry average. He’s averaged 15.0 half-PPR PPG in the last three weeks.
Pierce returned to action last week but played on just 18% of the snaps. Singletary, who played on 80% of the snaps, continued to play a workhouse role for the Texans. Neither player did anything on the ground, but Singletary chipped in six receptions for 54 yards. Pierce had six touches for 18 yards. The Texans have the Broncos, Jets, Titans, Browns, and Titans to close out the season. It’s a tough stretch. The Titans are allowing the 15th-fewest points to opposing running backs and the Browns are allowing the 13th-fewest. Denver’s defense has also flipped a switch since their contest against Miami.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans – 39% Rostered
Spears is nothing more than a handcuff to Derrick Henry. If you have Henry on your roster, it makes sense to continue rostering Spears. However, if you do not have Henry, Spears is safe to cut. He has just one game with more than eight half-PPR points. He offers little to no week-to-week value and is a pure handcuff. It's fair to question just how much upside Spears has even in the event that Henry goes down. Yes, he would likely handle the vast majority of the running back touches for Tennesee, but what kind of value comes with that? The Titans are 27th in points scored and 28th in yards gained. They are 27th in rushing attempts and 21st in rushing yards. Henry has just two games this season with double-digit half-PPR points where he doesn't score a touchdown and that's the great Derrick Henry.
Other Running Backs to Cut: Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers – 51% Rostered, Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots – 40% Rostered
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 13?
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals – 64% Rostered
Tee Higgins is expected back soon, possibly as early as this week. That'll push Boyd back down to No. 3 on Cincinnati's target hierarchy. Even with Joe Burrow, that was a spot that did not offer a whole lot of fantasy value. From Weeks 1-11, before Burrow's season-ending injury, Boyd had just three games with more than nine half-PPR points. He has six games with fewer than 7.5 half-PPR points. That was with Joe Burrow. Boyd will offer little to no value with Jake Browning at quarterback. Boyd is an easy cut.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks – 61% Rostered
I usually hate cutting first-round rookies, but Smith-Njigba has earned cut status. He has just two games with double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR scoring. He has six games with fewer than six points. He has not registered a single game with more than 65 receiving yards on the season. With Smith playing as poorly as he has, there's just not enough production to go around for Seattle's No. 3 receiver. Even D.K. Metcalf is struggling to produce consistent fantasy numbers and JSN is well behind Metcalf in terms of targets per game. If I'm locked in the playoffs, I'd like to continue holding him because they have a great playoff schedule, but JSN is no longer a hold and he probably hasn't been for a while, but first-round rookies get the benefit of the doubt.
Other Wide Receivers to Cut: Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns – 42% Rostered
Hold On
WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos - 67% Rostered
Jeudy has five or more targets in eight games. He has seven targets in three contests. He also has three or more receptions in eight games. He has five or more receptions in four of them. We’re not talking about a must-start receiver here, but we’re also not describing a dude who should be cut either. He has 50 or more yards in six of his 10 games this season. Again, he's not a weekly fantasy starter, but those numbers certainly deserve a spot on a fantasy football bench. His fantasy numbers would look a lot better with a few more touchdowns, but unfortunately, he has just one.
He’s scored eight or more half-PPR points in five of his nine games. It hasn’t been pretty, but he’s worth holding onto. The Broncos still get to play the Chargers twice this year and they’re allowing the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season. They will also play the Lions, who are allowing the sixth-most points to receivers, as well as the Patriots who are giving up the ninth-most points. It’s a strong, strong schedule the rest of the way. He's a full-time player who is getting decent volume and has a great schedule. I'm not starting him, but I am holding.
RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers – 94% Rostered
If you want to cut someone because of injuries, then I guess Aaron Jones deserves to be cut. In my opinion, that's silly. He's currently out with a sprained MCL but wasn't put on IR. We should expect Jones to return in Week 13 or Week 14, most likely Week 14. That'll give him one tune-up game before the fantasy playoffs. I am absolutely not cutting this dude. Not with the way he's played in the past. Not with the way Jordan Love and the Packers' offense are playing right now.
Between Weeks 9-12, #Packers QB Jordan Love is...
2nd in EPA/play
7th in success rate
6th in yards per attempt
5th in adj. completion %
7th in CPOE
3rd in TD passes
4th in passer rating
7th in air yards
5th in PFF passing grade
3rd in big time throws
3rd in completions 20+ pic.twitter.com/wCZy5k8MQw— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) November 27, 2023
Jones has played four games with a snap share higher than 45%. In those four games, he's scored 25.7, 6.6, 15.9, and 7.4 half-PPR points. That comes out to an average of 13.9. The Packers also have the Carolina Panthers in Week 16 who are giving up the third-most points to opposing running backs this season.
Other Players to Hold: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings – 92% Rostered, Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals – 90% Rostered, George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers – 85% Rostered, Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – 82% Rostered
