The Cut List (Week 10) - Time to Let Go?

September 19, 2020

Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 10 of the season.

Welcome back to the Cut List, already perhaps the final one of the year with the season ending on September 27. Either way, it's crunch time.

In recent weeks we switched up the format of this article a bit, to cover a larger pool of players and to discuss trends being seen by fantasy baseball managers across a large number of leagues, based on ESPN's 25 most dropped players in the past week.

Stats are thru September 17. Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. (As do AL/NL-only, where players rostered this widely are going to have homes.) You can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List and free app.

Jesse Winker (OF, CIN)

Both slumping and hurt for most of the last week, Winker is the most-dropped player in that time. He did not play from September 11-14 and in his two games since he is 0-for-6 with four strikeouts. Although he is still hitting .264/.385/.543 on the year, this is not the time for patience.

Verdict: Drop in 14 or shallower.

Randy Dobnak (SP, MIN)

Was just optioned.

Verdict: Drop.

Victor Reyes (OF, DET)

Playing 15 games in 14 days may be taking its toll on Reyes, who has hit .241/.281/.296 in that time. Five of his six steals came more than four weeks ago. He still has okay Statcast numbers, but his results are now below average taking the full season into account.

Verdict: Drop.

Dustin May (SP, LAD)

May is fortunate in that he will miss Los Angeles' four-game set at Coors and pitch next at home against Oakland. That may end up his last game of the season, or he could pitch the regular season finale against the Angels. Both teams have hit above average this year by wRC+ and May's ERA is more than a run lower than his xFIP (2.68 vs. 4.09). That points to drop, but if he follows instead of starts as he did against San Diego (where he still pitched 5+ innings), there's an argument to try and get W's from him.

Verdict: Stream vs. Oakland if you need W's and he is a follower again.

Austin Riley (3B/OF, ATL)

2020 has become a poor campaign for Riley who is now hitting .238/.292/.409. Statcast, however, thinks he has deserved closer to a .274 average and .491 SLG. He also remains an everyday player, albeit down in the lineup. There is definitely an argument to see what he can do in the last week-plus in deeper leagues, depending on your wire.

Verdict: Hold in 12 team/5 OF or deeper unless there's a clearly better wire option.

Randy Arozarena (OF, TB)

A quintessential hot hand, Arozarena hit .636/.667/1.727 (that last figure is still SLG, not OPS) in 12 PA from September 2-7, and just .118/.238/.176 since then. Too bad that the 2020 fun did not last very long for the Jose Martinez trade piece.

Verdict: Drop.

Aaron Civale (SP, CLE)

Civale allowed just two runs in six innings against the Cubs on September 16, but allowed 10 base runners and struck out just three. His peripherals agree with his 3.80 ERA, but he also gets the tough White Sox lineup next. He will conclude against the Pirates, where he can be a streamer, but in the week or so in the meantime, there should be a better use for the roster spot.

Verdict: Drop for Chicago before trying to stream against Pittsburgh.

Josh Fleming (P, TB)

Fleming, like May, was a follower in his last appearance. Fleming left in line for a W but with just a 1-0 lead it did not hold. The Mets would be next followed by the Phillies. The Phillies are strong but New York actually has the best wRC+ in the league at 125 so...

Verdict: ...so avoid Fleming unless you are desperate for W's. Tampa has a good combo of hitting, defense, and bullpen.

Pedro Severino (C, BAL)

Severino has been in this column before even as he has a .281/.355/.439 slash line on the year. Although that is still solid, it is a far cry from the .325/.403/.518 after September 8. Since August 28 he is hitting .207/.270/.259 on a .293 BABIP.

Verdict: Drop except in two-catcher leagues.

Brandon Belt (1B, SF)

San Francisco saw several postponements recently in their series against San Diego and Seattle. Belt is having a very strong season with even stronger Statcast numbers, including a 97th percentile xwOBA. He hasn't been terribly hot of late, but the inconsistent games haven't helped, and those should be over now.

Verdict: Hold or pick up if dropped in 10+.

Alex Dickerson (OF, SF)

Dickerson is close to the same deal as Belt. He's having too strong a season to stay on waivers now that the Giants are playing games again. Less established as an above-average hitter (still only 622 career PA), Dickerson's Statcast numbers also aren't nearly as strong (60th percentile xwOBA), so you may need a bit of a deeper league than with Belt.

Verdict: Hold or pick up if dropped in 12+.

Jake Cronenworth (IF, SD)

Hitting .205/.271/.318 in September and San Diego missing a couple games this past week explains Cronenworth's drops. But he played in all five games over four days from September 13-16 before Thursday's off day, showing life in the first three before 0-for-8 despite just one strikeout in the last two. That's some very atomized data, of course, but Cronenworth's season-long Statcast is still glowing red, including an absurd .359 expected batting average.

Verdict: Hold. Subject to change if slump extends.

Taijuan Walker (SP, TOR)

Walker looks to conclude against Philadelphia and Baltimore; not the worst pair but not the best either. However Walker is also coming off perhaps his worst start of the year, although six of its seven runs were unearned. The peripherals here are very suspect, too: 38-17 K-BB and a 5.10 xFIP despite a 3.05 ERA.

Verdict: Drop.

Hanser Alberto (IF, BAL)

A 12-for-61 since August 29 has brought Alberto's average down to .287 from .331. Statcast thinks even that is too high, given a .259 xBA off of an 82.5 mph exit velocity. There is nothing left to ride here.

Verdict: Drop.

Ian Happ (OF, CHC)

Happ had an amazing start to the season and was hitting .317/.423/.690 even as of the first game of a September 5 doubleheader. Since then, he's gone .156/.255/.200, although in the last three games he's rebounded a bit. Even small signs of life are good when the full season line remains .275/.380/.561 with excellent Statcast. He's also locked in as Chicago's leadoff hitter.

Verdict: Hold.

Robinson Cano (2B, NYM)

Cano's slump is over as he hit .350/.435/.500 the past week. His full-season line is also top-notch, both in results and contact.

Verdict: Hold.

Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR)

Grichuk hasn't homered since August 28 while slashing .197/.247/.239. His season-long Statcast: .264 xBA, .472 xSLG, .331 xwOBA are okay. He remains a mainstay in Toronto's lineup but you've probably been very patient with him if he's still rostered. It's okay to look elsewhere.

Verdict: Drop in shallow 12-teams or less, somewhat wire-dependent.

Evan Longoria (3B, SF)

Another San Francisco cut, although he was also on last week's list, Longoria has provided a .288 average this year with 48 R+RBI but not much in HR/SB. Coming off back-to-back two-hit games, there's enough life here to follow last week's suggestion, which was...

Verdict: Hold, even pick up in 12 teamers with CI.

Martin Maldonado (C, HOU)

Slashing .237/.362/.398 on the year and recovering from a slump with a .267/.389/.533 line the past seven days, Maldonado is a clear hold in OBP leagues but it becomes questionable elsewhere. Mediocre Statcast confirms the OBP and two-catcher nature of leagues where Maldonado should be rostered.

Verdict: Hold in most OBP and all two-catcher, drop elsewhere.

Other Drops To Consider

Throughout most of this season, individual pitchers have hit the most-dropped list far more often than hitters. That trend did not continue this week, with only a handful of pitchers discussed, so this week this section focuses on pitching. Of course, ROS opponents are very important here. By wRC+ the top offenses in MLB in 2020 have been the: Mets, Padres, Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Giants, Rays, Phillies, and Angels, after which there is a drop from 110 to 105.

Jesus Luzardo (SP, OAK)

It's not clear who Luzardo faces next, but it could be the Dodgers next, which would then line up for the final game of the year. He has a solid xFIP (3.77) despite the 4.28 ERA, but if it turns out he does get the Dodgers and you're in a league where you would sit him for that, it's arguable that he should be dropped instead and the roster spot used for someone else. If he ends up a simple case of getting San Francisco then Seattle, dropping becomes too harsh a suggestion. Just be on the lookout.

Seth Lugo (SP, NYM)

So here's some insight into real-time writing. The intent here of focusing on pitchers quickly failed to find strong data in favor of some guys. Fantasy managers seem to have done a good job of giving high rostership rates to pitchers who deserve it. Forty pitchers are better than 88.9% rostered on ESPN right now compared to the 80th-rostered pitcher at 37.5% (Nathan Eovaldi). It's actually hard to find great drop options at that breakdown.

Lugo comes close. He just got blown up by the Phillies and the Rays are next. Tampa Bay could be his last start unless he faces the Nationals in the season finale. But despite what happened in Philadelphia, he has a 2.54 xFIP, including 2.41 in his five starts. He's struck out a third of batters as a starter. If his peripherals weren't so good, a possible single start against a top 10 offense would be scary. But throw in the W possibility given by the Mets' offense, and Lugo really is a stream at worst in all but very shallow leagues.

German Marquez (SP, COL)

Another borderline option. Marquez gets the Giants next but he is done pitching at Coors for the year and should get the Diamondbacks as his final start. A 3.50 FIP and 3.90 xFIP is probably good enough in this scenario except in the shallowest of leagues.

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