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Bijan Robinson or Nick Chubb? Who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Andrew Ball analyzes NFL players with similar values and tells you who to pick.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Bijan Robinson vs. Nick Chubb for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of RBs Bijan Robinson and Nick Chubb and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
RB3 - ADP: 7th Overall
In a move that literally nobody believes, the Atlanta Falcons listed Bijan Robinson as their third-string running back on the team's first unofficial depth chart.
If you are even the tiniest bit worried, don't be. In the team's first depth chart last season, Tyler Allgeier was listed as RB8, and Drake London was buried behind guys like Frank Darby and Cameron Batson.
Bijan Robinson is a stud and should be drafted as such. Despite a 1,000-yard season from incumbent Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons spent the eighth overall pick on the former Texas Longhorn. Robinson won the Doak Walker Award as the nation's top running back in his final season in Austin, with 1,580 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns to his name. NFL's Next Gen Stats rated the rookie as the top-rated back in the 2023 NFL Combine, with the highest possible production score.
For reference, here is Allgeier's NFL Combine score.
With the help of Allgeier, the Falcons led the league in rushing attempts in 2022, finishing third in total rushing yards and fourth in yards per carry. This is by design in an Arthur Smith offense. In his two seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Derrick Henry-led Titans, the team finished in the top four in percentage of run plays.
Let's review the math. Elite athlete + draft capital + run-heavy offense = fantasy football success for Bijan Robinson.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
RB4 - ADP: 13th Overall
Since entering the league in 2018, Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has never finished a season with less than 1,000 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. The perennial Pro Bowl back is fresh off his best season, tallying 1,764 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns. In all five of his seasons, the ex-Georgia Bulldog has averaged five yards or better per carry. Chubb is the closest thing to a guarantee you'll see in non-PPR fantasy football leagues.
The red flags rise when you look to draft Chubb in PPR leagues. Over the last four seasons (when he shared the backfield with Kareem Hunt), Chubb averaged just 24.8 receptions and 210.3 receiving yards. Number 24 was almost never on the field on third downs, resulting in a lower season-long snap share than guys like Raheem Mostert, Leonard Fournette, and Miles Sanders. Despite all his shortcomings in the passing game, Chubb still finished the season as the RB6.
The good news for Chubb is that the Browns, under coach Kevin Stefanski, design their offense around the run game. Since he took the helm in 2020, Cleveland has never ranked lower than eighth in run rate.
Could Chubb see more work in the passing game in 2023? Kareem Hunt earned 44 targets out of the backfield last season, but he's gone. Jerome Ford, the presumptive backup, has a hamstring injury that is putting his status for the season opener in doubt. Unless the Browns add a veteran, that leaves Demetric Felton Jr. next in line for touches. Felton Jr. is listed on the Browns' official website as RB/WR, so catching isn't a concern, but pass protection may be.
Browns' running backs coach Stump Mitchell suggested that Chubb will play more on third downs this season, but Stefanski remained non-committal.
Fantasy Football Verdict
As noted, the Browns and the Falcons each favor the run game and have the personnel to do so. Both Chubb and Robinson could easily top 300 carries, but the difference may come in the passing game. Veteran signal-caller Deshaun Watson can push the ball downfield more, relying on outside weapons like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore. Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder has weapons in Drake London and Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, but it remains to be seen if he can command an NFL offense. He may lean on quick passes to Robinson out of the backfield.
In non-PPR leagues, Chubb is your answer. He has yet to have a down season and should have more opportunities than Robinson to score. In half-PPR, Chubb still seems like the guy, as we've seen him prove he's a star already. In PPR leagues, Robinson is the pick. Both should be drafted in the middle of the first round, regardless of redraft format.
If you're playing in a keeper or dynasty format, draft Robinson over Chubb. The rookie has fresh legs, and Chubb turns 28 later this year.
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