RB Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 10 (2024)

November 5, 2024

Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season. His RB lineups advice for Week 10 fantasy football start/sit decisions.

So far this season has been the return of the running back in fantasy football. With that, we are sending Tyrone Tracy Jr., Chuba Hubbard, and Jonathon Brooks to Germany to give our German friends something worth watching if we are going to force them to watch the Giants, Panthers, and Machine Gun Kelly.

With the Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, and Cleveland Browns on bye this week, managers are looking to replace the fantasy production vacated by Josh Jacobs and Kenneth Walker III, and we are here to give you those Week 10 starts and sits at the running back position.

These backs may not change the world, but they may change the world for one fantasy manager, and that’s what matters. Here. We. Go!

Week 10 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms

Tyrone Tracy Jr. - RB, New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

It is safe to say that Tyrone Tracy Jr. is now the lead back in New York. While Tracy had just 66 yards rushing in Week 9, he did account for 17 touches out of the Giants backfield.

Over the last three games in which Devin Singletary has been back, Tracy is averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game thanks to accounting for 65% of the snaps and a 57% opportunity share. Last week, Tracy outsnapped Singletary 47 to 18.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. over last three games with Devin Singletary back in the lineup.

12.3 fantasy points per game
65% snaps
57% attempts
51% routes
8% target share

That is a very strong role. Locked into RB2 status.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 4, 2024

Looking at the last four games, Tracy has posted more than 22 fantasy points in half of those contests, which looks like an incoming repeat performance.

The Carolina Panthers have allowed more than 31 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks and the season thus far. During the previous four weeks, Carolina has surrendered seven rushing touchdowns, one receiving touchdown, and 631 total yards to opposing running backs.

If you are getting this kind of volume, you have yourself a solid RB2. Additionally, volume and opportunity are what we are seeking in fantasy, and not only does that snap share favor the rookie, but 100% of the red-zone opportunities have gone to him in the last two weeks. We’ve also seen the weighted opportunities go from 56% three weeks ago to 79% last week.

Is it too early to call him David Johnson?

D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots

Since Week 4, only Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker III, and Alvin Kamara have produced more fantasy points than the 104.5 Swift has over that period. Only Henry and Joe Mixon have averaged more fantasy points per game than Swift’s 20.9 over the last six weeks.

Of the Bears' 286 yards last week, Swift accounted for 28.7% of that yardage. Before last week, Swift was on a heater, popping off four straight games with 115 yards from scrimmage, falling one game short of David Montgomery’s run back in 2020-21 when he had five such games in a row.

Swift has averaged 1.83 yards before contact per attempt this season while forcing 19 missed tackles (14th most), with 54.7% of his yards coming after contact this season.

This week, he brings those metrics into the contest with the New England Patriots. A Patriots team that has allowed a league-worst 640 rushing yards over the last four weeks, while allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs, and more than 31.23 fantasy points per game.

Aaron Jones - RB, Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Carolina has a bad run defense. New England has a terrible run defense. Do you know who else has a bad run defense? The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 26.80 fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks and barely 28 fantasy points per game. Jacksonville has allowed 1,265 total yards and 12 touchdowns to opposing backs this season, leading to the third-most fantasy points allowed.

Two things stick out this week. First, Jones is averaging 4.52 yards per carry this season. He’s also averaging 2.94 yards per carry after contact, which has accounted for 65.1% of his rushing yards. After watching Saquon Barkley run over defenders and hurdle guys backward, I have no faith that the Jaguars defenders will be able to tackle Jones.

Second, the Jaguars have allowed 55 receptions and 441 receiving yards to backs this season. It is worth noting that in Week 9, Jones’ route participation rate was 70%, trailing only De'Von Achane. I’m unsure what the receiving prop will be this week, but I would advise taking the over.

Week 9 route participation rate leaders at RB:

83% — De’Von Achane
70% — Aaron Jones
67% — Alvin Kamara
65% — Chuba Hubbard
65% — Bijan Robinson
65% — JK Dobbins
64% — Kyren Williams
63% — Chase Brown
62% — Breece Hall
61% — Tony Pollard
60% — Rico Dowdle
57% — Jonathan Taylor

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 4, 2024

Week 10 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts

Rico Dowdle - RB, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

I am here to protect you from yourselves. Ezekiel Elliott was disciplined and not allowed to travel with the team. The Cowboys gave Dalvin Cook two touches and realized that was a bad idea. Rico Dowdle was the man, and to his credit, he busted off a 6.3 yards per carry average on his way to a respectable 75 rushing yards. He also added 32 more yards in the passing game on five receptions.

That all looked good. Now, Dak Prescott is out for multiple weeks with that hamstring injury. CeeDee Lamb is considered week-to-week with a shoulder injury. Volume may be there, but so too are the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed just 16.13 fantasy points to backs over the last four weeks (third fewest). In four weeks, the Eagles have allowed 274 total yards to backs and just one rushing touchdown.

If my childhood taught me anything, it's that you don't go chasing waterfalls, so I sure as heck won't be chasing fantasy points.

Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Every week, I talk about Tony Pollard as either a must-start or a must-sit. There is no even medium for the Titans running back. Last week, he took advantage of a great matchup against the Patriots with 31 touches and 154 total yards. Who needs practice? 

Tony Pollard doesn’t need practice https://t.co/NR6mktwd4T pic.twitter.com/RG2PRJXoxo

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) November 4, 2024

I want to start Pollard. I do. We know the volume is there: 2.88 yards after contact per attempt, 18 forced tackles missed, 142 attempts this season, and an average of 4.38 yards per carry. But just when I start believing once again, a difficult matchup presents itself.

That matchup is the Chargers this week. A defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs, allowing just 16.76 per game and just 110 total yards to the position per game. Los Angeles has also only allowed two total touchdowns all season. If you need a flex or an RB3 with upside, you can still make a case for Pollard in your starting lineup, but you should also have an upside play locked and loaded in your lineup.

Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

There is a good chance the Rhamondre Stevenson resurgence is a direct result of being on my weekly sit list.

Back in Week 8, Stevenson was on the “Sit List,” yet he managed 22 fantasy points against the Jets thanks to a pair of touchdowns. It certainly had nothing to do with the 2.4 yards per carry. Then last week, while being back on the “Sit List,” he scored another pair of touchdowns and another 21 fantasy points despite averaging just 1.6 yards per carry.

I’m following the metrics here, and not chasing those fantasy points. Once again, the matchup is not good. The Chicago Bears over the last four weeks have allowed just one rushing score and 337 total yards (112.3 total yards) over that span.

It’s hard to argue with the seven touchdowns Stevenson has produced this season, especially when five have come in his last four games, but that kind of pace is hard to maintain unless you are Derrick Henry. I’d bet that touchdown regression comes sooner than another Stevenson touchdown.

One other matchup that is difficult on paper, but one I certainly am not worried about, is De'Von Achane's as the Miami Dolphins face a Los Angeles Rams defense on Monday Night Football that is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to backs over the last four weeks.

Achane is built differently, especially with Tua Tagovailoa. He's essentially matchup-proof. In games with Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins back averages 27.6 fantasy points. Even if Achane gets zero fantasy points courtesy of the run game, he is averaging 17.8 fantasy points as a receiver. That would make him the WR8 in fantasy points per game between Malik Nabers and Garrett Wilson.

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