September 3, 2016

J Jones breaks down the fantasy implications of the Sam Bradford trade from the Eagles to the Vikings

It seemed that the Minnesota Vikings' hopes for a deep playoff run this year were dashed when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went down in practice with a dislocated knee, a ruptured ACL, and a tibiofemoral dislocation, an injury described as career threatening by several sources close to to the team. The injury was so unexpected that it left the Vikings scrambling for a starting quarterback not named Shaun Hill.

Clearly hoping to protect their season by shoring up the quarterback position, the team traded a first round 2017 and a conditional fourth round 2018 pick to the Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford, the number one pick overall in 2010 has been mercurial at best during his career and now finds himself on his third team in six years. Needless to say, there’s a lot at stake for both quarterbacks.

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Vikings Trade 2017 1st Rounder For Sam Bradford

Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings QB

Bridgewater suffered a dislocated knee, a ruptured ACL and tibiofemoral dislocation during a fairly routine drop back in practice. The largest risk for Bridgewater was the tibiofemoral dislocation, which can result in arterial and nerve damage. In severe cases, this damage can lead to the complete loss of the damaged leg. Thanks to the training staff's quick, decisive action, Bridgewater’s injury wasn’t nearly as severe, and early reports from the Vikings’ camp are that he has no long-term arterial or nerve damage. With such extensive damage to his knee, Bridgewater will most likely be out for an entire year, which removes him from the 2016 season. He’ll most likely make his return in the 2017 season, though a more definitive time frame won’t be set until after he’s undergone corrective surgery.

This might prove to be a costly setback for the young quarterback, who was expected to have a breakout season a year removed from an NFC North title. This also effectively removes another season of growth from his career. On the upside, Bridgewater is only 23 years old, which bodes well for him physically, and the Minnesota Vikings’ training staff will certainly do all they can to protect the investment that is their young quarterback as he heals. Bridgewater’s mental toughness will most likely be tested, but as a moderately successful quarterback in the NFL, one has to assume that his mental fortitude was never really in question.

For fantasy owners who have Bridgewater in a keeper league, this injury is a setback, but not one that can’t be overcome. Bridgewater will likely return in 2017 to a Vikings team that will still have a dominant running attack and should be able to step right back in to where he left off. If you have the option to designate him as injured reserve, you should. If the preseason was any indication, Bridgewater was poised to turn a corner and really come into his own.

Again, this injury does put a slight damper on those expectations, but there’s no reason as of yet to assume that Bridgewater will return next season unable to make the same decisions and throws as he has previously, even if he is "skittish" about contact or lacks some of his previous lateral mobility upon his return. Bridgewater’s youth definitely factors into this, and he should be able to return to form.

Sam Bradford, Vikings QB

Sam Bradford has suddenly found himself in the driver’s seat of a playoff contending team that has Super Bowl aspirations, again. Bradford has seen multiple coaching changes and playbooks throughout his professional career and is coming off a 2015 campaign where he threw for 3,725 yards, 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 86.4. Bradford’s QB rating, a metric designed to encapsulate the efficiency, decision making, and overall impact of a quarterback's play, puts him 25th among the starting 32 quarterbacks.

However, Bradford is playing for a team with a running attack led by Adrian Peterson, who is one of the most consistent running back threats of the past four years, will have a receiver corps featuring Charles Johnson, Stephon Diggs, and Cordarelle Peterson, and a coaching staff that just last year showed their commitment to not only running the ball, but to building a playbook surrounded on limiting mistakes, keeping possessions, and turning games into dog fights. The biggest concern for Bradford will be having to step into a new system and playbook with little over a week before being asked to perform.

The coaching staff will very likely strip down the playbook and rely heavily on Peterson in the Vikings' season opener in Nashville versus the Titans. Whether or not the coaching staff and Bradford can hash out a series of plays and a system that will most complement him remains to be seen, but the fact remains, at some point, Bradford will have to make a pass that's longer than 10 yards. The true litmus test will be how successful he is with medium to deep throws against an NFL caliber defense as a Viking.

From a fantasy perspective, remember this: Bradford was fighting to maintain his starting position against rookie Carson Wentz and journeyman Chase Daniels as an Eagle. His QB rating was 25th among starting quarterbacks last year, and Bradford only threw 19 touchdowns versus 14 interceptions with a team he had a full training camp to prepare for.

If you weren’t avoiding drafting him before, you really should be avoiding him now. The only real fantasy upside to Bradford’s new starting position with the Vikings is the exact reason the trade was made in the first place: he’s not Shaun Hill. The fantasy dearth that the Vikings’ receiving corps was sure to undergo with Hill at the helm has basically been upgraded to a mild wilderness. This move also bodes extremely well for Adrian Peterson and all of the Vikings running backs, since they will definitely continue to get the lion’s share of the offensive workload. Expect an increased workload for Matt Asiata and Jerrick McKinnon, as the Vikings attempt to avoid overloading Peterson.