Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

Why It's Time To Buy In On Kyler Murray In Fantasy Football

Kyler Murray - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Targets

Fantasy football in its simplest form is a game of numbers. The players play and whatever stats they put up in real life, you get for your fantasy team. Even more than that fantasy football is a game of perception as two fantasy players can look at a player and come to two totally different opinions. 

Undoubtedly even more influential than the opinion of one fantasy player is the opinion of the market. The market value on a player can change year-to-year and in dynasty leagues, you should be looking to capitalize on that, especially when a player is being valued at their floor. 

That is exactly what is happening right now with Kyler Murray. The former unquestioned QB1 in fantasy is now being overlooked even after a successful return from a torn ACL. Kyler’s value being down last year made sense, but it has yet to fully rebound -- not even close. And that creates a buying opportunity. 

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!


Why You Should Not Write Off Kyler Murray

After tearing his ACL late in the 2022 season, Murray made his much anticipated return to the field in Week 10 of 2023. He played eight games last year and finished with 1,799 passing yards and 10 touchdowns while running 44 times for 244 yards and three touchdowns. Those numbers do not blow you away, which is why he is largely being valued the way that he is, but it looks better the deeper you dive. 

First, it's unfair to judge raw numbers when a player plays in only half the season. On a per game basis, Murray averaged 225 passing yards per game. That was more than what he put up in 2022, although less than his two seasons prior. His yards per attempt and completion was on par with 2022 as well. 

As a runner, there was not much of a falloff. Murray posted the second-highest rushing success rate of his career, per PFR. His 5.5 yards per attempt is right in his career norm range (5.8). He once again averaged over 30 rushing yards per game, as he has done in every season of his career. But he did so despite averaging a career low 5.5 carries per game. Plus, he was a consistent runner week to week. He ran for at least 20 yards in all but one game. In total, Murray picked up 29 percent of his fantasy points last year from rushing production. That matches both his career norm and 2022 rate of 30 percent. 

Murray being able to match his career norm rushing production despite being fresh off of an ACL injury is extremely encouraging for the future. It could take some time for a player to fully regain not only their previous burst and speed, but also to regain trust in the knee. Murray not only didn’t miss a beat statistically speaking, but he could improve and look even more like the Murray of old next season. 


What Can Change for Kyler Murray in 2024

If you play fantasy football, you have likely heard the term regression thrown around. Regression can be both positive or negative and in the case of Murray, I would anticipate some positive regression in arguably the most important category there is -- touchdown percent. 

Last season, Murray sported a 3.7 percent passing touchdown rate. It was 3.6 percent in 2022, and his career norm is 4.2 percent. Perhaps we should not expect a huge jump, but there is definitely room for improvement. Last season, of the top-32 QBs, only 10 had a worse touchdown percent than Kyler and the names are extremely unimpressive.

QBs that either started off as backups such as Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew, and Joshua Dobbs or were disappointing starters like Sam Howell, Joshua Dobbs, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, and Kenny Pickett. No offense to those QBs, but they are not Kyler Murray. Even a 1 percent increase over the course of a full season would put him in the range to throw between 25 and 30 touchdowns. His career high is 26. 

But I am not just expecting regression for regression’s sake. Look at who Murray was throwing the ball to after he returned in Week 10 of the year. His top target, earning nearly twice as much volume as every other Cardinal, was Trey McBride. The young breakout tight end will once again be in Arizona. But his receivers were Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore, an injured Marquise Brown, and Michael Wilson, who were both in and out of the lineup.

The Cardinals now have the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and could add a generational talent like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze.  

The Cardinals could have their pick of the generational wide receiver available in this year's draft. And why does that matter? Well, Murray was at his best both as a real-life QB and fantasy option when he had DeAndre Hopkins as his top option. A high-end receiver to go along with Trey McBride gives Murray two high-end targets he can throw toward. That should naturally help increase his numbers. 

Plus, the Cardinals have the ninth-most cap space heading into free agency, according to Spotrac. That means they could bolster their offense through both the draft and free agency if they chose to do so. The talent around Murray last year was pretty barren, but it could be the exact opposite for the former No. 1 overall pick this season. 


Kyler Murray’s Fantasy Football Cost

In early best ball drafts, Murray is going off the board as the QB11. He is going nearly 30 picks later than C.J. Stroud, and just behind Justin Fields and Jordan Love. He is surely going behind those QBs in dynasty leagues. That is despite putting up nearly identical numbers on a per-game basis last year. Stroud averaged 18.4 fantasy PPG, Love was at 18.77, Fields at 17.7, and Murray at 18.3. And remember, that was a down year by Murray’s standards. 

It is easier to understand in dynasty, given the ages of the QBs. But Murray is still only entering his age-27 season. So, there should be plenty of very valuable fantasy seasons ahead for the Cardinals signal-caller. Murray could see himself drafted as a top-eight fantasy QB again if things break his way the next couple of months. But even if the ADP never catches up, it just makes Murray more of a value. He has finished in the top 10 among QBs in fantasy PPG every season since his rookie year. 

Murray can be had right now in non-Superflex drafts for cheap. According to Dynasty League Football, he was recently traded for a 2024 Round 3 draft pick. Even if you have to bump that up a full round, that is a great trade and one worth making. He will always cost more in a Superflex draft, but even in those, his perceived value is down. 

There is a strong argument to be made that Murray’s value will never be this low again. Not at least until his later years in the NFL. The only time he was probably more affordable was last offseason when we knew he was going to miss at least half the season. But you cannot go back in time and trade for Kyler then. You still can go out and acquire him now -- and it would be smart to do so. 

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

Win More With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts


Logan Gilbert7 hours ago

Nearly Untouchable Against Rangers
David Hamilton8 hours ago

Swipes Four Bags On Sunday
Elly De La Cruz8 hours ago

Homers, Swipes Base On Sunday
Carlos Correa8 hours ago

Continues Torrid Pace On Sunday
Royce Lewis8 hours ago

Homers Twice Across Doubleheader
Ronel Blanco11 hours ago

Looks Untouchable On Sunday
Jonas Valanciunas11 hours ago

Pelicans Likely To "Move On" From Jonas Valanciunas
Jarrett Allen11 hours ago

Pelicans Reportedly Interested In Jarrett Allen
Max Scherzer11 hours ago

Should Rejoin Rotation Soon
Pittsburgh Steelers13 hours ago

Cameron Heyward Wants To Retire A Pittsburgh Steeler
Luka Doncic13 hours ago

Expected To Play On Monday Night
Yoshinobu Yamamoto13 hours ago

Likely To Miss Multiple Weeks
Kristaps Porzingis13 hours ago

Questionable For Game 5
Mookie Betts13 hours ago

Fractures Hand On Sunday
Yoshinobu Yamamoto16 hours ago

Placed On The 15-Day Injured List
Josh Quinlan18 hours ago

Losing Streak Hits Three At UFC Vegas 93
Adam Fugitt18 hours ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Vegas 93
Willson Contreras18 hours ago

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Timmy Cuamba18 hours ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Lucas Almeida18 hours ago

Pulls Off Upset At UFC Vegas 93
Douglas Silva de Andrade18 hours ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 93
Miles Johns18 hours ago

Picks Up Decision Win At UFC Vegas 93
Josh Jung18 hours ago

Starting Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Oneil Cruz18 hours ago

Returns To Starting Lineup
Justin Verlander18 hours ago

Plays Catch, Could Return Later This Week
Daniel Suarez18 hours ago

Why You Should Fade Daniel Suarez In DFS This Weekend At Iowa
Gerrit Cole18 hours ago

Could Return On Wednesday
Salvador Perez19 hours ago

Returns To Lineup On Sunday
Corey Lajoie19 hours ago

Should You Roster Corey Lajoie In DFS This Weekend?
Carson Hocevar19 hours ago

Will Start 20th At Iowa Speedway
Kyle Harrison19 hours ago

Placed On The 15-Day Injured List
Jasson Domínguez19 hours ago

Jasson Dominguez Placed On The Injured List
NASCAR20 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Will Start 16th At Iowa Speedway
Michael McDowell20 hours ago

Might Have A Positive Result At Iowa
José Caballero20 hours ago

Jose Caballero Scratched With Calf Tightness
Joey Logano20 hours ago

Could Joey Logano Be A Sneaky Tournament Play At Iowa?
Justin Haley20 hours ago

Consider Justin Haley A Great Value Pick For Iowa?
Bo Bichette20 hours ago

Out Again Sunday
Jesse Winker20 hours ago

Avoids Structural Damage, Not Playing Sunday
Ty Gibbs20 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Picks To Consider At Iowa
Ricky Stenhouse Jr21 hours ago

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. A Value Play In DFS At Iowa?
William Byron21 hours ago

Should Fantasy Managers Roster William Byron At Iowa?
Kyle Busch21 hours ago

Is Kyle Busch Worth Rostering At Iowa This Week?
Noah Gragson21 hours ago

What Should You Do With Noah Gragson In DFS This Weekend At Iowa?
Alex Bowman21 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Plays For Iowa
Chris Buescher22 hours ago

Despite Disappointing Practice, Chris Buescher Still A Viable DFS Play At Iowa
Ryan Blaney22 hours ago

The Case For Ryan Blaney At Iowa Speedway
Kyle Larson23 hours ago

the Favorite to Win at Iowa
Tyler Reddick23 hours ago

a Strong DFS Play at Iowa
Martin Truex Jr23 hours ago

Has Massive Place Differential Upside at Iowa
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Could Contend for the Iowa Win
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Is Christopher Bell a DFS Option at Iowa After Wrecking in Practice?
Chase Briscoe1 day ago

Could Be a Top-10 Contender at Iowa
Dak Prescott1 day ago

May Command More In Contract Talks
NFL1 day ago

Stephon Gilmore Not In A Rush To Sign A Deal
Isaiah Hartenstein2 days ago

Drawing Interest From Several Teams
Jarace Walker2 days ago

Could Be On The Move
Jalen Smith2 days ago

"Early Belief" Jalen Smith Will Decline Player Option
Tee Higgins2 days ago

Signs His Franchise Tender
Jaylen Brown2 days ago

Has A Rough Night On Friday
Jayson Tatum2 days ago

Quiet In Game 4
Luka Doncic2 days ago

Leads Mavs To A Much-Needed Win
Kristaps Porzingis3 days ago

Available For Game 4
Mikal Bridges3 days ago

Nets Still Not Interested In Trading Mikal Bridges
Tyrese Haliburton3 days ago

Making Progress With Recovery
Jarrett Stidham3 days ago

Has The Advantage Over Bo Nix
Tim Patrick3 days ago

Looking Healthy This Offseason
Jayden Daniels3 days ago

Commanders Sign Jayden Daniels To Rookie Deal
Tatsuro Taira3 days ago

Looks To Win 16th Fight In A Row
Alex Perez3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 93
Brady Hiestand3 days ago

Looking To Extend His Win Streak
Garrett Armfield3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 93
Jose Johnson3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA3 days ago

Asu Almbayev Looks To Win His Third UFC Fight In A Row
Breece Hall3 days ago

Jets Being Cautious With Breece Hall
Atlanta Hawks3 days ago

Hawks Potentially Eyeing Donovan Clingan In NBA Draft
Los Angeles Clippers3 days ago

Clippers Targeting Jeff Van Gundy For Assistant Coach
Donovan Mitchell3 days ago

Expected To Sign Extension With Cavs
Dennis Schröder3 days ago

Dennis Schroder Wants To Remain In Brooklyn
Leon Draisaitl3 days ago

On First Three-Game Scoring Drought Since March 2020
Connor McDavid3 days ago

Finishes Game 3 Loss With Two Assists
Sam Bennett3 days ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Vladimir Tarasenko3 days ago

Nets Fourth Postseason Goal
Sam Reinhart3 days ago

Ends Goal Drought During Multi-Point Effort
Aleksander Barkov3 days ago

Establishes New Panthers Record With Eighth Multi-Point Outing
Sasha Vezenkov3 days ago

Reportedly Will Remain In The NBA
Luka Doncic4 days ago

Probable For Friday Evening
Kristaps Porzingis4 days ago

"Has A Chance" To Play In Game 4
Darius Slayton4 days ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns4 days ago

Myles Garrett Tweaks His Hamstring In Minicamp
Amari Cooper4 days ago

Holds Out Of Final Day Of Minicamp
Trevor Lawrence4 days ago

Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence Agree On Five-Year, $275 Million Extension
Alvin Kamara4 days ago

Skips Practice For Contract-Related Reasons
Courtland Sutton4 days ago

Hints At Training Camp Holdout
Gus Edwards4 days ago

"Likely" To Be Back For Training Camp
SJ4 days ago

Sharks Appoint Ryan Warsofsky As Head Coach
Jalen Chatfield4 days ago

Agrees To Three-Year Extension With Hurricanes
Kaapo Kakko4 days ago

Signs One-Year Extension With Rangers
Patrik Laine4 days ago

Poised To Move On From Columbus
Evan Rodrigues4 days ago

Promoted To First Line Thursday
Aleksander Barkov4 days ago

Will Play In Game 3 Versus Oilers
Juwan Johnson4 days ago

To Undergo Foot Surgery
Atlanta Falcons4 days ago

Falcons Lose 2025 Fifth-Round Pick Following Tampering Investigation
Josh Quinlan4 days ago

On Two-Fight Losing Streak
Adam Fugitt4 days ago

Could Be Fighting For His Job At UFC Vegas 93
Douglas Silva de Andrade4 days ago

Searching For 30th Career Win At UFC Vegas 93
Miles Johns4 days ago

Looking To Continue Success At UFC Vegas 93
Timmy Cuamba4 days ago

Searching For First UFC Win At UFC Vegas 93
Lucas Almeida4 days ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC Vegas 93
Tim Hardaway Jr.4 days ago

Re-Enters Rotation In Game 3
Sam Darnold4 days ago

Considered The Starter At The Moment
Jaxon Smith-Njigba4 days ago

Injured In Practice Wednesday
Courtland Sutton4 days ago

Had Offseason Ankle Surgery
Josh Jacobs4 days ago

Taking Part In Mandatory Minicamp
Laurent Brossoit5 days ago

Maple Leafs Have "Mutual Interest"
Jaccob Slavin5 days ago

Working On Long-Term Extension With Hurricanes
Corey Perry5 days ago

Set To Re-Enter Oilers Lineup On Thursday
Evander Kane5 days ago

Uncertain For Thursday's Game 3
Darnell Nurse5 days ago

Expected To Play In Game 3
Aleksander Barkov5 days ago

Practices On Wednesday, Will Travel To Edmonton
Keegan Bradley5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At U.S. Open
Rickie Fowler5 days ago

Tough To Trust At U.S. Open
Tom Kim5 days ago

Striking The Ball Well Heading To Pinehurst
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

A Major Wild Card At Pinehurst
Tony Finau5 days ago

Seeking First Major Victory At U.S. Open
Cameron Smith5 days ago

The Best LIV Bet For U.S. Open
Ludvig Aberg5 days ago

Trust Ludvig Aberg At Pinehurst
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

A Top-10 Lock At U.S. Open
Dean Burmester5 days ago

A Risky Play At U.S. Open
Jon Rahm6 days ago

Withdraws From U.S. Open
PGA6 days ago

Alex Noren Brings Improved Short Game To Pinehurst
Dustin Johnson6 days ago

Can Dustin Johnson Put A Rough Spring Behind Him?
Jordan Spieth6 days ago

Fighting Poor Form Heading To U.S. Open
Tommy Fleetwood6 days ago

Makes Pinehurst No. 2 Debut
Bryson DeChambeau6 days ago

Looks To Continue Major Success
Russell Henley6 days ago

In Top Form Heading To U.S. Open
PGA6 days ago

Byeong Hun An Could Contend At U.S. Open
Jason Day6 days ago

In Excellent Form Heading To U.S. Open
Tyrrell Hatton6 days ago

Back For Another U.S. Open
Will Zalatoris6 days ago

Finding Consistency Heading To U.S. Open
Wyndham Clark6 days ago

Trending In The Wrong Direction For U.S. Open




James Cook - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Players To Fade for Fantasy Football Best Ball Drafts Include Josh Jacobs, James Cook, Chris Olave, David Njoku, more

Fantasy football best ball drafts and contests continue to grow and grow each year. The number of tournaments and strategies deployed surrounding the format is exploding, which means we must stay sharp! Social media is filled with best ball builds and screenshots of different approaches. It's everywhere! But before you can win these leagues, you... Read More

Drake London - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Targets and Fades - FFPC Main Event Contest

Even though the calendar still shows it's the first half of June, fantasy football drafts are back in full swing in many best ball leagues, tournaments, and high-stakes contests. These early drafts can help all fantasy football managers get a feel for how the market perceives players and where they will end up in drafts... Read More

Geno Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Preview - Seattle Seahawks Edition

This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.... Read More

Ricky Pearsall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Five Fantasy Football Rookies That Will Fail To Make An Instant Impact In 2024

In recent years, we have seen more rookies than ever before provide immediate fantasy football results. Just last year, we watched Puka Nacua and C.J. Stroud have impressive debut seasons. However, not every rookie can make an immediate impact. Whether it’s due to circumstances or lack of experience, there are times when first-year players disappoint.... Read More


Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for the UFL Championship

Sadly and sweetly, we have reached the conclusory game of the 2024 UFL season. I am already yearning for the start of the 2025 season and eager to follow along as the draft happens, the rosters change, and 2024 stars get their NFL opportunities. There is plenty to reflect on: the great attendance numbers for... Read More

Sneaky QB1 Candidates? 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers

The NFL season is right around the corner, which means that fantasy football drafts will soon take place. Drafting your fantasy team is one of the most exciting times for managers. But it also is one of the most stressful times, especially when making certain decisions like when is the best time to draft a... Read More

Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

League Winners for Fantasy Football Best Ball: Draft Targets Include Isiah Pacheco, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson, Mark Andrews, more

Fantasy football best ball drafts continue to build momentum as an entertaining way to play fantasy football. As the hype around drafting teams grows throughout the preseason, the appetite for more BB contests continues to grow without putting more in-season management on drafters' plates. Best ball is a format where you draft a team and... Read More

Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football - 2023 Fantasy Football Busts To Buy In 2024

When a player busts, confidence begins to drain. However, separating facts from feelings is easier when they are not on your team to begin with.  Some preseason-hyped players were total busts in 2023. Many fantasy football managers will avoid these players in 2024 drafts, but should they? Taking advantage while their perception is down, or... Read More

Demario Douglas - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Cheap Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys With Upside in 2024 - Fantasy Football Outlook

Let’s be honest. When it comes to dynasty fantasy football, the ultimate goal is to win championships. Drafting rookies and playing scout is fun, but the only thing people remember is who wins titles. One of the most integral parts of playing dynasty fantasy football is recognizing marketplace inefficiencies and acting on them accordingly. Player... Read More

DraftKings Best Ball 2024 Fantasy Football Rankings and Tiers (Top 350)

Hello and welcome to RotoBaller's DraftKings Best Ball Fantasy Football Rankings for 2024 Best Ball leagues on DraftKings. A reminder that on the DraftKings Fantasy platform, NFL best ball leagues only have four potential positions -- Quarterback (QB), Running Back (RB), Wide Receiver (WR), and Tight End (TE). You will see these four positions in... Read More

Tyjae Spears - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears - Fantasy Football Outlook for Tennessee Titans RBs in 2024

The Tennessee Titans backfield underwent significant changes this offseason. Longtime starter Derrick Henry left for the Baltimore Ravens in free agency. Tennessee’s offense has been centered around Henry for years, and this rushing attack will have a very different look in 2024. While Henry is gone, second-year back Tyjae Spears remains in the fold. The... Read More

Running Back Sleepers and Undervalued Picks for 2024 Fantasy Football

The word "sleeper" is tossed around often in the fantasy football community. So much so that players sometimes lose the sleeper label by the time many leagues conduct their drafts. Fantasy managers are always looking for the next sleeper running back in drafts, especially those who opt to dive headfirst into a "Zero RB" draft... Read More

Video: Wait...The Chiefs Are Actually Great Draft Values??

We're already busy prepping for the upcoming fantasy football season here at RotoBaller! With early best ball drafts underway, it's time to dive into some notable fantasy football players for the 2024 campaign. RotoBaller's David Rispoli digs into where some key Kansas City Chiefs are going in 2024 drafts. Can these established superstars actually be... Read More