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Quite a few first-year players have already made great impacts as professionals. Last week was strong evidence of that. Panthers QB Bryce Young surpassed 20 fantasy points for the first time, throwing for 247 yards and three scores. Dolphins running back De'Von Achane tallied 151 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries, and Colts receiver Josh Downs totaled 97 yards on six catches.
We have already witnessed some interesting rookies perform this week too. Chiefs wideout Rashee Rice set a new career high with 72 receiving yards, helping Kansas City notch a 19-8 win over Denver. Broncos running back Jaleel McLaughlin gained 42 scrimmage yards on nine touches as his teammate Javonte Williams returned from injury. Which other rookies will be worth keeping an eye on this week?
Whether you're a redraft manager or a dynasty manager, being ahead of the curve with rookie players is vital to your team's success. For that reason, each week I will be breaking down which rookies you should be watching out for. This column will be split into two parts: one pertaining to players most relevant in redraft leagues, and the other for rookies particularly worth watching in dynasty formats.
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NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues
Jordan Addison (WR, MIN)
Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison has had a strong start to his NFL career. The first-rounder out of USC has exceeded 50 receiving yards in four of his five appearances. He also has scored three touchdowns, tied for the fifth-most among wideouts. Addison set a new personal best last week with 18.4 PPR points, catching six of nine targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. The six catches matched his career high, and his nine targets passed his previous best of eight.
Addison has been efficient for Minnesota thus far. He has the eighth-best production premium for his position, is 13th in EPA, and is 21st in fantasy points per target. However, Addison has not been as involved as the numbers might suggest. He has just the 65th-highest target share among receivers and is 58th in expected fantasy points per game. Still, he has been praised for his quality play and production, largely because his route-running has been on point.
With superstar WR Justin Jefferson now on injured reserve, Addison will no longer suffer from a relatively low target share. He should become the team's top wideout during Jefferson's absence, although tight end T.J. Hockenson will be very involved too. Watch Minnesota's game against the Chicago Bears this weekend to discover just how much Addison's volume will rise as he steps up.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Like Addison, Zay Flowers has been a key contributor for his team early in his career. Flowers impressed with nine catches, ten targets, and 78 yards in his debut versus Houston. While he has consistently been a top option for quarterback Lamar Jackson, he has not reached 15.0 PPR points since Week 1. Flowers did have a career-high 11 targets last Sunday against Pittsburgh, but he caught just five for 73 yards.
Flowers's underlying numbers are extremely encouraging. He has the 12th-highest target share and 16th-most targets at his position. He also has a route participation rate of 100 percent, which is obviously as good as it gets. Flowers is ninth in total route wins with 83, and his route win rate of 51.6 percent is 19th-best among WRs. His fantasy scoring is down relative to his volume largely because he has not yet found the end zone. That should change considering he has seven red zone targets already.
Baltimore will take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. The Titans are tied for the third-most receptions allowed per game to WRs this year, and they have yielded the seventh-most receiving yards per game to wideouts. Flowers is bound to have his usage and talent translate into more fantasy points soon; look for him to have his most impactful performance since his debut and potentially score his first touchdown as a professional this week.
Josh Downs (WR, IND)
Josh Downs completes the trifecta of promising rookie receivers in this week's column. Downs started the year with three catches against the Jaguars and followed that up with four versus the Texans. He saw a big jump in volume in Week 3 with Gardner Minshew quarterbacking the squad, earning eight grabs on 12 targets for 57 yards. His production dipped again in Week 4, but last week he set a new personal high-water mark with 97 yards on six receptions.
Downs may be small at 5'9" and 171 pounds, but he does not play like it. His 89th-percentile Burst Score mitigates the limitations imposed upon him by his height. Downs also has good playmaking skills with the ball in his hands. He is 36th in receiving yards among wide receivers, but he is 18th in yards after the catch. His talent has allowed him to emerge as the top slot receiver for the Colts.
Indianapolis will take on Jacksonville this week. Downs will be primarily covered by cornerback Tre Herndon. Herndon has allowed a 139.4 passer rating when targeted this season, and he has also yielded a catch rate of 82 percent. Additionally, Downs's top game in terms of targets occurred in Minshew's lone start this year; Minshew will again be filling in for the injured Anthony Richardson this week. Anticipate another strong game from Downs this Sunday.
NFL Rookies to Watch in Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues
Tank Bigsby (RB, JAX)
Tank Bigsby had a major "Welcome to the NFL" moment in his professional debut against the Colts. Bigsby failed to play through the whistle in a confusing situation, and Indianapolis scored a defensive touchdown as a result. Sadly for Bigsby, he has struggled to get any traction to make up for that mistake. He has poached two goal-line touchdowns, much to the chagrin of Travis Etienne managers, but has done little else.
The most scrimmage yards Bigsby has gained in a game is 13. He also is yet to see a snap share of 20 percent, and he has just two targets on the season. Bigsby is averaging a mere 2.7 yards per carry on only 15 rushing attempts. A Bigsby breakout appears to be very far from materializing, especially as Etienne has been performing exquisitely. This is a shame, as the Auburn product had a strong preseason where he showed promise.
Bigsby has been stuck in a rut since Week 1; he has failed to top three rushes since having seven in the team's opener. Still, Bigsby is the team's clear number-two running back, as he and Etienne were the only two Jacksonville RBs to earn snaps last week in London. Dynasty managers should keep an eye on Bigsby to see if their young asset can deliver on his preseason expectations.
Kendre Miller (RB, NO)
When Kendre Miller was injured for the first two weeks of the season, he missed out on some golden opportunities. Starting running back Alvin Kamara was suspended for the team's first three outings, but Miller had only Week 3 to take advantage. The former TCU Horned Frog finished that game with 34 yards on 10 touches, and he had just a 29.7-percent snap share as he returned from his hamstring ailment.
After spending the following week as a non-factor, Miller re-emerged in New Orleans's blowout victory over New England last Sunday. Miller was very impressive on his 12 touches, accumulating 90 scrimmage yards. He was able to take the yardage he was given and then some; Miller is now averaging 4.43 yards created per touch in his three games, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL.
Miller is still sitting behind Kamara on the depth chart, but he is making a strong case to remain the number-two option on the team when Jamaal Williams returns. Williams will be eligible to come back from injured reserve next week, so Miller has one more opportunity to show out and keep the job. Doing so would do wonders for his stock. Make sure to watch Miller as the Saints take on Houston on Sunday.
Eric Gray (RB, NYG)
Ever since Saquon Barkley suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 2, the Giants have turned to a variety of different running backs to step up. Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell had been the two contributors before last week, but fifth-round rookie Eric Gray had his turn against Miami. Gray paced the team with 12 carries, although Breida did outsnap him 43 to 30. Still, this was Gray's first action of the season, so his involvement is noteworthy.
Unfortunately, Gray was not the most effective with the carries he had. The first-year back from Oklahoma picked up only 25 yards, averaging 2.1 per attempt. He did have a 21-yard run where he displayed the quickness to turn the corner, but it was called back due to a holding penalty. His best run was an eight-yarder where he displayed patience, agility, and finishing strength.
Barkley is listed as questionable to return this week. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how Gray stacks up in the backfield compared to his peers. The team will likely struggle; the Bills are a fearsome matchup, and starting quarterback Daniel Jones has already been ruled out. See if Gray can make anything out of the opportunities he gets, and also see how many opportunities he receives in the first place.
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