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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 15 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys.
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Texans @ Titans
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Ryan Tannehill over 270.5 passing yards and Deshaun Watson over 268.5 passing yards.
Last week, Ryan Tannehill was in our over passing prop and managed to come through, unfortunately, Derek Carr couldn't keep up his end of the bargain and the bet was not a winner. This week, Tannehill is in another situation where he should be able to eclipse the total and has Deshaun Watson to pair with. This game has the highest total on the board and there should be plenty of passing against these defenses.
The Titans allow 276.1 passing yards per game, which ranks them eighth-worst in the league. Watson has averaged 268.3 passing yards per game in his three career starts vs. Tennessee, which points to this prop being right on target. The fact that Houston is a dog in this game by three points should mean they will have to throw the ball a bit more. That paired with the fact that Tennessee should be able to score plenty on this Texans Defense should help Watson hit the over. Tennessee has averaged an astounding 37.5 points over their last four games and has an implied total of 27.5 this Sunday, so again, scoring and putting the pressure on the Houston offense should not be an issue.
The Texans pass defense is even worse than Tennessee's, which is another reason the scoring will be high and Tannehill should hit the over. Houston is allowing 281.3 passing yards per game, which ranks sixth-worst in the league. Vs. a similar Raiders Defense last week (284.4 passing yards per game allowed), Tannehill managed to throw for a season-high 391 passing yards. This came in conjunction with Derrick Henry rushing for 103 yards on 18 carries, so the use of one does not necessarily mean the loss of another when it comes to the run and pass with the Titans offense. Expect this game to have plenty of fireworks with both quarterbacks going over their respective totals.
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Rams @ Cowboys
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Robert Woods over 52.5 fantasy points.
This recommendation comes with some risk, but Vegas has the total projected at 49, which is the second-highest total on the board. Typically, when the total is this high, MKF requires a much higher threshold for the Fantasy Challenge Contest. An example this week would be the Seahawks at Panthers game, which has a projected total of 48 and a Fantasy Challenge Contest threshold of 61.5. This Rams at Cowboys has plenty of fantasy targets to choose from, but keeping it simple with these three guys seems to be the safest way to hit the total.
Gurley has found himself back in the workhorse role for the Rams over the past few weeks and I would expect the same heading into this week. He has been given 42 carries over the last two weeks and has turned them into 174 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and nearly 40 fantasy points. The Rams have also said they plan to unleash Gurley down the stretch in order to bolster their playoff hopes. The Cowboys have been somewhat suspect against the run in the previous four weeks as they have allowed a total of 497 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Gurley should be able to find success in this matchup.
Ezekiel Elliott should also be able to find success vs. the Rams Defense. The Rams have allowed a total of 539 rushing yards over the previous four games, which amounts to 134.75 rushing yards allowed per game. Zeke has an average of 79.3 rushing yards per game, 39 receiving yards per game, 4.3 receptions per game, and 20.2 fantasy points per game over his previous three games. Very solid numbers for this type of prop. If he and Gurley can combine for their averages over the past few weeks and get to 40 total, we will only need some minor production from Robert Woods.
Woods has become a failsafe for Jared Goff in recent weeks. Over the past four games, Woods has hauled in 33 balls on a WHOPPING 47 targets for 462 yards, and one touchdown. This averages out to 22.78 fantasy points per game over that span. The Cowboys have also given up an average of 33.93 fantasy points to wide receivers over the past four weeks, which ranks eighth-worst in the league. With the total being so high, Woods will likely become heavily involved at some point in this game and help get this prop over the total.
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