Running Back Matchups to Target for Christmas Day (2025) - Jahmyr Gibbs, Javonte Williams, Aaron Jones Sr., Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for the Christmas Day slate of 2025 -- DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

We have our second big holiday three-game NFL slate of the season as the NFL has expanded its schedule to feature three Christmas Day games this year. These games may not hold the same matchup appeal as the Turkey Day contests did, but you still want to know which running backs to target in the fantasy football playoffs, NFL DFS contests, and prop bets, right?

I will drop the usual disclaimer that while total touches and red-zone usage are factors that should always be considered, my goal in this article is to locate the best overall matchups for running backs using some advanced statistics to do so.

The primary focus of this piece is NFL DFS; however, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top four matchups for the Week 16 main slate - and I tossed in a few honorable mentions this week as well.

Christmas Day Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first 16 weeks of data. The first column shows the overall offensive rushing attack vs. the opponent, calculated from each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated from each team's "adjusted line yards" created and allowed. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300 DK, $9,400 FD)

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Gibbs has been shut down as a runner now in three straight weeks, bottoming out last week with just two yards rushing on seven attempts against the Steelers. And I know this is the "RB Matchups To Target" column, but I am not sure the matchup really matters for Gibbs this week all that much.

If we look back at what he did against the Vikings in the first meeting, it wasn't good either. He ran for just 25 yards on 9 carries in that game, and was limited to just six yards on three catches as a receiver. That loss to the Vikings was what prompted Dan Campbell to take over play-calling duties.

A 3-time Pro Bowler, @Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs ranks 4th in team history in TDs scored (48) & is the only player in team history to produce 17+ TDs in consecutive years.

He's also the only Lion yo produce multiple seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards & 500 receiving yards.#OnePride pic.twitter.com/5ep6FA4sVq

— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) December 23, 2025

Since that game, Gibbs has been used heavily in this offense as both a runner and receiver. The Packers and Rams were able to contain his dual-threat game pretty well, but in their other games where Gibbs was stymied as a runner, he's still gotten there with his receiving work. That was the case last week as Gibbs finished with 10 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown.

So even if Minnesota loads up to stop the run, Gibbs should see plenty of work as a receiver, and his ability to function as the check-down for Goff gives him such a massive floor, especially in full-PPR scoring. If you want to fade him in tournaments for leverage, that could work, but anyone playing cash games or single-entry stuff should consider the risk/reward of fading Gibbs when he could outscore the rest of the running backs on this slate with relative ease.

Javonte Williams ($8,700 DK, $9,600 FD)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders

As you can tell from the matchup chart this week, we don't have any spots that really stand out in a big way. But the Dallas matchup with Washington is easily the best one on paper, with the "green light" across all three data points.

That makes sense since Dallas remains a top-ten rushing offense in the league even after Williams and the run game were slowed down last week by the Chargers. And Washington remains one of the worst teams in the league against the run. They allowed a big day from Saquon Barkley in their loss last week and gave up 116 yards on 19 carries to Williams the first time these two teams met earlier this season.

Williams is nursing a neck injury, but his participation in practice (while limited) is a good sign that he's probably suiting up. Assuming he has a clean bill of health for this contest, I think Dallas is likely to lean on him plenty in this one. He's very quietly had a terrific season, and he's a good bet for a touchdown (or two) if the Cowboys end up in some goal-to-go situations inside the five-yard line.

Williams should carry the second-most rostership of any back on this slate after Gibbs, but I have a hard time not clicking his name into lineups.

Aaron Jones Sr. ($5,700 DK, $6,700 FD)

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Jones is on the injury report as of right now, but is expected to play tomorrow and could end up with more touches than usual as his backfield companion, Jordan Mason, is trending towards being out. Jones handled a season-high 23 touches last week as Mason left that game early in the first half, and with Max Brosmer under center for Minnesota this week, I would expect the Vikings to lean on Jones and the running game pretty heavily again this week.

Detroit's run defense has been the strength of that defensive unit this season, but they are dealing with several injuries at this point in the season, and they finally cracked last week when they allowed Jaylen Warren to rush for 143 yards and two crucial touchdowns in the second half.

That's now five straight games where an opposing running back has run for at least 65 yards against this front, and while that number isn't terrible, it's a stark difference from how solid they were to start the season.

With Jones being a receiving threat out of the backfield who could catch some dump-offs from his young QB, it's hard not to consider him on this slate with the expected workload and "better than it looks" matchup against the Lions defense. He's far too cheap for this many touches. But I will acknowledge that there is plenty of bust potential here, too, if the Vikings offense stalls out completely under Brosmer.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD)

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

If you remember, I was all set to deploy C-Rod against the Giants a few weeks ago, and then he got ruled out the morning of that game. The other Commanders' running back, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, then proceeded to rip off over 90 yards and a touchdown in that spot, and I found myself wondering, "I wonder how big of a day C-Rod could have had if he were the starter in that game?"

Chris Rodriguez Jr. is in for the @Commanders TD!

DENvsWAS on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/M4mZTpDyyV

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2025

Nothing against JCM, but Rodriguez Jr. just runs harder and is a better back. When he's healthy, he's first in line for those early down touches, and he's produced when he's been given the opportunity. He got into the end zone late in last week's game when the outcome had already been decided, but he still ran effectively, gaining 63 yards on 15 totes.

Dallas can be run on! They are a bottom-five run defense and could be without their best run-stopper, Quinnen Williams, if he's not cleared to play in this one. C-Rod handled only three carries the first time these teams met, but he did score a touchdown in that game and is a very good short-yardage back.

I expect Rodriguez Jr. to handle the plurality of touches for the Commanders' backfield in this one, and I think Washington will try to lean on the run game as much as possible if they are forced to start journeyman Josh Johnson, which is looking more and more like what may happen as Marcus Mariota has yet to practice this week.

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