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The 2023 fantasy football season is almost here. While the preseason is entertaining after going seven months without NFL-caliber football, there is something more important happening over the next few weeks – fantasy football drafts.
There are several draft strategies fantasy players can use to win their fantasy football league. However, fantasy players always want to leave the draft with the guys on their must-have list. Every fantasy player wants to grab their guys, whether it’s a high-priced quarterback, a sleeper running back, or a mid-round wide receiver.
Below are six tight ends on my must-have list this season. Obviously, I won’t draft all six in the same league, but these are the tight ends I want as many shares of as possible this year. The ADP used in this article is via RotoBaller.
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Travis Kelce (KC): ADP 4.12 | TE1
Some have wondered if Kelce is worthy of the 1.01 pick. While fantasy players shouldn’t draft the superstar that high, he is worthy of a top-five selection. The future Hall of Famer scores like a top-10 wide receiver or running back every season, using finishing closer to the top five. More importantly, he gives fantasy players such an advantage at the tight end position. Kelce has been the TE1 for four of the past five seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2021 as the TE2.
Last year the future Hall of Famer averaged 15.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Kelce averaged four more fantasy points per game than any other tight end. Furthermore, the superstar led all tight ends and wide receivers in yards after the catch. More importantly, he led all tight ends with 30 red zone targets. Kelce is the only tight end that fantasy players should draft in the first 36 picks.
Darren Waller (NYG): ADP 53.92 | TE5
Waller might have been one of the hardest players to evaluate this offseason. He was a superstar during the 2020 season, ending the year as the TE2, averaging 9.1 targets and 14.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the veteran tight end has missed over 40% of the games the past two seasons because of injuries. Furthermore, his targets per game dropped by 25.3% from 2020 to the past two years.
However, the injuries and drop in production are baked into Waller’s ADP. Fantasy players don’t have to spend a top 36 picks on the veteran as they did a few years ago. More importantly, Waller led all tight ends in deep targets (13) despite missing nearly half the 2022 season. Furthermore, he finished second in yards per reception (13.9), fifth in yards per target (nine), and 11th in yards per route run (1.69) among tight ends. The veteran comes with some risk, but Waller should see enough targets to have league-winning upside.
Kyle Pitts (ATL): ADP 54.71 | TE6
The third-year tight end had an impressive rookie season. Pitts was the TE7 in 2021, averaging 8.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite scoring only one touchdown. Furthermore, the former Gator joined Mike Ditka as the only two tight ends to have over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie. Unfortunately, the star tight end struggled last year, averaging only 6.2 fantasy points per game. Pitts also missed seven games with a knee injury.
Unfortunately, Marcus Mariota tanked Pitts’ fantasy value last season. The tight end’s catch rate dropped from 61.8% as a rookie to 47.5% last year. Furthermore, he had only a 59.3% catchable target rate, one of the worst in the league. More importantly, Mariota completed only 23.5% of his pass attempts over 20 yards downfield, repeatedly missing a wide-open Pitts. Meanwhile, the former Gator led all tight ends in target share last season (34.3%). While Desmond Ridder won’t be a superstar, he will be a significant upgrade over Mariota.
Sam LaPorta (DET): ADP 137.11 | TE18
LaPorta’s ADP is on the rise after he has mostly played with the first-team offense during training camp. Yet, he is still criminally underrated as the 18th tight end off the board in the ADP. Last year Amon-Ra St. Brown was the only Lion with more than 70 targets (146). Furthermore, D’Andre Swift had the second-most targets on the team last season. More importantly, Detroit did very little to improve their receiving core despite Jameson Williams’ six-game suspension.
The Lions didn’t spend a high draft pick or meaningful money in free agency on a wide receiver. Instead, they invested a top-35 pick in the rookie tight end. LaPorta had a productive college career despite playing with awful quarterbacks, totaling 153 receptions for 1,786 receiving yards and five touchdowns. More importantly, Detroit got 12 receiving touchdowns out of the tight end position last year, with only three coming from T.J. Hockenson. LaPorta could quickly become Jared Goff’s go-to target in the red zone.
Juwan Johnson (NO): ADP 154.71 | TE20
Last year Johnson was the TE11, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Yet, the former college wide receiver is getting drafted behind several limited upside tight ends. More importantly, Johnson set career highs in receptions (43), targets (65), receiving yards (508), and touchdowns (seven) last season. Furthermore, he led the Saints in receiving touchdowns while finishing top three in receiving yards and targets.
More importantly, the former college wide receiver finished third in receiving touchdowns among tight ends, only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle. While some are concerned about the additions of Jimmy Graham and Foster Moreau, the veterans are no threat to Johnson’s role in the passing game. Meanwhile, the young tight end played with the first-team offense in New Orleans’ Week 1 preseason matchup. Furthermore, Johnson showed improved route running and was a favorite target for Derek Carr.
Zach Ertz (ARI): ADP 267.12 | TE29
Unfortunately, the veteran tight end suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 10 last year. However, Ertz was playing well before the injury. He was the TE3 over the first nine weeks, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran was a focal point of the passing attack, averaging 7.6 targets per game over the first nine weeks. More importantly, Ertz should be ready to play in Week 1.
The Cardinals recently activated the veteran tight end off the Physically Unable to Perform list. Many believed the former Stanford star would miss the first several weeks recovering from the knee injury. Instead, Ertz has become an under-the-radar sleeper. Last year the veteran finished seventh in red zone targets (15) and 11th in deep targets (seven) among tight ends despite missing nearly half the season. While Ertz’s ADP will rise over the next two weeks, it won’t get high enough to take him out of the sleeper conversation.
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