RADIO
The RotoBaller staff takes a midseason look at the biggest risers, fallers, breakouts, busts, buy-low, and sell-high players for fantasy football owners heading into Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season.
Since most fantasy football leagues hold their championship in Week 16, we can declare that we are officially halfway through the season. As always, there have been some major surprises, both positive and negative.
We recently polled our football writing staff to get their opinions on who have been the most notable breakouts and busts, as well as who to keep an eye on in the second half as potential risers and fallers. All opinions stated are that of the writer listed and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editor. That said, if I owned Amari Cooper anywhere (I don't) I'd be treating him like a commemorative Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl LI Championship hat.
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Midseason Report
Who has been the most surprising breakout in the first half of the season and why?
Patrick Mahomes. We all knew he had talent and top upside, for both fantasy and real-life football; but he has looked like the best QB in the league without question. From his decision making,- to his arm talent and strength, and his ability to make plays under-pressure is something we have not seen many do in their first full season starting in the league.
-Drake Peaugh
Phillip Lindsay. For all the talk we hear about rookie RBs automatically getting the starting gig, Lindsay flew completely under the radar. It was all Royce Freeman talk. Even outside of Denver, everyone some folks Ronald Jones and Rashad Penny. Unless it's an absolute slam dunk like Saquon or Zeke, rookie RBs are a total dart throw. Especially when it comes to usage.
-Frankie Soler
Adrian Peterson. We all thought he was done, but Purple Jesus has risen. 97 yards from scrimmage in five of his first seven games. AP has become an every-week locked in starter in the year 2018. Who saw that coming?
-Jason Katz
Almost everyone named James. James Conner and James White are both top-10 overall players in PPR, and while White will likely get overshadowed by Conner's incredible rookie campaign, the 26-year old White has earned his honors through his consistent work as "the" pass-catching option for the Patriots offense. Conner and White, depending on when you were drafting, both were at the very end of your drafts or not being regarded much at all, so their consistency and improvement from week one on has meant these guys are vital linchpins at a position notoriously lacking in them. That's a notable breakout in my book.
-Cliff Clinton
Who has been the biggest bust (non-injury related) in the first half of the season and why?
Aside from the obvious in Le'Veon Bell, I'd have to say David Johnson. The Cardinals offense has been terrible, and the coaching staff just isn't getting him in space enough. As a consensus top-five fantasy pick, Johnson is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and is more of an RB2.
-Keith Hernandez
Derrick Henry. Up until this past week, the man did not eclipse six PPR fantasy points in a single game. For a third-round pick to fall that far from grace is truly astounding.
-Jason Katz
LeSean McCoy. Every season, a talented player gets lost in an offense that caves in on itself. The Bills are a total mess and they're on their third quarterback. One year removed from the playoffs, McCoy is now on the trading block. Shady was a second-round pick in this year's drafts and has not scored more than 12 fantasy points in a game this season (per standard scoring).
-Joey Christopoulos
Jordan Howard. As a huge Tarik Cohen advocate, this makes me smile. Howard was going as many fantasy owners' RB1 for this year. Despite significantly improving in the passing game, the usage has been a massive disappointment.
-Aaron Schillinger
Nelson Agholor. He finally broke out last season and everyone expected that breakout to continue into 2018. Instead, Agholor has put up fullback-like numbers, making multiple catches a game, but gaining almost no yards after the catch. Combine that with a small amount of air yards, and you have a guy who should have been a WR2 playing at a WR5 level. The addition of Golden Tate lowers his value even more.
-David Marcillo
Which player do you expect to have the biggest positive turnaround in the second half and why?
Aaron Jones. The Packers coaching staff just need to start giving him the ball, as he's averaging 5.8 yds per carry.
-Johnnie Dowling
Keenan Allen. Philip Rivers is humming along at 36 years old and Allen remains heavily involved as his top target in the passing game. Yet Allen hasn't scored since the season opener. Expect plenty of positive regression in the second half, especially in the touchdown department.
-Keith Hernandez
The turnaround may already be in place, but Dion Lewis may end up seeing some more notable work here that, God forgive me, you can rely on in Nashville. Seriously, the Titans are going to have to really get something going offensively in order to stay competitive, and considering Lewis is first in rushing yards and second in passing targets as of this writing, it may be the only Titan you can rely on. Despite a big Week 8, you may not have to give up too much for him given his age and flukiness, but Lewis won some people fantasy leagues in 2017. Don't be shocked if he can do it again, and cost you much less than nearly any other RB in the trade market.
-Cliff Clinton
David Johnson. The Cardinals have the third easiest schedule for RBs. Byron Leftwich now has the bye week to actually make some changes to the offense. We already see DJ used a bit more in the passing game, even if it was largely on screens. And, let's be honest, it can't possibly be worse.
-Jason Katz
Larry Fitzgerald. A lot of this has to do with Josh Rosen’s development, but their schedule was not the easiest through this first half. They played the likes of Washington, Seattle, LA Rams, Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver. The second half looks easier from a defensive matchup standpoint and offers higher scoring potentials. They play Kansas City, Oakland, Chargers, Green Bay, Detroit, Atlanta, and the LA Rams. Expect a full rebound and continued development from Rosen that has Fitzgerald averaging 9/6.5/90 to go along with five touchdowns putting him firmly in the mid-high WR2 discussions.
-Drake Peaugh
To quote Bruce Wayne, "You wanna get nuts? Let's get nuts!" I'm going to go with Leonard Fournette. I mean, if he plays more than 10 snaps, it's an automatic positive over his first-half output right? Fournette has torpedoed fantasy teams across American as a first round pick that has been a walking 'questionable' all season. I'm going out on a limb and saying Fournette comes back healthy in Week 10 and becomes a major player in the fantasy playoffs by season's end.
-Joey Christopoulos
Which player should fantasy owners "sell high" right now?
Lamar Miller has had a solid two-game stretch over the past two weeks, but it's hard to see him putting up numbers like that after we'd seen what he did to start the season. He's a sell-high candidate based on numbers alone, but if you add in the fact that D'Onta Foreman is getting "close" to practicing, it's clear to see that Miller is a sell-high, but also a sell-soon, before he puts up another clunker.
-David Marcillo
I keep finding myself trying to unload Chris Carson as he's in what would qualify as a "good" week, where the Seahawks decided to lean on one of their better players in the running game instead of relying on Pete's magical game of "Spin the Wheel to Pick the Backfield." Carson may not get you back a Tyreek Hill equivalent, but you may be able to segue into a high-end tight-end, or in dynasty a cheap keeper piece. These are all much better options than finding yourself relying on Carson in your FLEX or in a better player's BYE.
-Cliff Clinton
Amari Cooper. There is optimism a change of scenery might help but it won’t. Try to target a WR-needy team with a back like Nick Chubb.
-Chris Mangano
Can Adrian Peterson possibly keep producing at the level he's been? He's defied expected reality in the past, but at his age, one can't help but wonder if the Redskins aren't putting too much on his back with nine games left to go. His value is as high as it's been all year and might be as high as it's going to get. Perhaps now is the time to dangle him in front of a frustrated Michael Thomas owner and see if they take the bait.
-Chris O'Reilly
Kenyan Drake. I really don't trust Miami's usage of him and he's been fairly big-play dependent. Frank Gore has more rushing attempts and more rushing yards than Drake. That tells you everything you need to know. The recent big game from Drake makes him a good sell-high candidate. Cash out before the house wins--and the house always wins.
-Frankie Soler
