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The top main-slate daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on September 27, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's the final Wednesday slate of the regular season, RotoBallers! The MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. We only have a handful of these left, so let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With a handful of games spread throughout the earlier part of the day, we're left with a perfectly-sized eight-game main slate. There is a great mix of pitching options today, so there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 9/27/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:07 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Pablo Lopez, MIN vs. OAK ($11,400 DK, $11,300 FD)
I expect Pablo Lopez to be very popular today, and I'm comfortable eating that chalk. Through 31 starts, he sports a 2.98 xERA and 3.33 xFIP. His numbers are bordering on elite across the board, including .269 xwOBA, 34.8% hard-hit rate, .213 xBA, .339 xSLG, and an 87.2 MPH average exit velocity. Lopez has been somewhat underwhelming in his most recent outings, but a 29.2% strikeout rate gives him a reliable floor.
Aside from price, the factor that separates Lopez from Gerrit Cole today is the matchup. Oakland has been a marginally improved offense in the second half, but that still only amounts to 3.7 runs per game since the All-Star break. The Athletics own a weak 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .669 OPS and .294 wOBA. They also strike out at a generous 25.1% rate.
Dane Dunning, TEX vs. LAA ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)
Dane Dunning is not one of the best arms available today, but for the discount, I think he's worth highlighting as a viable SP2. There aren't a lot of good affordable options, so this is where I'll take my stand to spend up for bats. Through 33 outings, Dunning carries a respectable 3.88 ERA. The advanced stats aren't as complimentary, but in this matchup, I trust his ability to grind out a quality start.
The Angels have been one of the worst teams in the second half. There's no Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout in the lineup these days, and Los Angeles is scoring just 3.4 runs per game in the month of September. That mark includes a horrible 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .670 OPS, .288 wOBA, and a league-worst 29.6% strikeout rate. Riding with Dane Dunning has more to do with believing in how bad the Angels are right now.
Also consider: Framber Valdez, Gerrit Cole, Zack Thompson
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Jameson Taillon ($6,400 DK, $4,500 FD)
Rostering Matt Olson is not novel advice, but it is good advice. He boasts a .281/.389/.604 with a major-league-leading 53 home runs this season. Olson's success includes a .566 xSLG, 56% hard-hit rate, 93.9 MPH average exit velocity, 16.7% barrel rate, and .397 xwOBA.
Jameson Taillon is having his worst season in the majors. He owns a 4.94 xERA and 4.43 xFIP across 28 outings this season. That consists of a .471 xSLG, 10.7% barrel rate, .263 xBA, and .340 xwOBA. Taillon has been lit up by left-handed hitters to the tune of a .520 slugging percentage.
Max Muncy – 3B, LAD vs. Noah Davis ($5,400 DK, $4,200 FD)
For a game at Coors Field, Max Muncy's price is very palatable today. He carries a strong .823 OPS with 36 home runs and a 120 wRC+ this season. That includes a .517 xSLG, 15.4% barrel rate, 46.7% hard-hit rate, 91.2 MPH average exit velocity, and .370 xwOBA.
Noah Davis has pitched just 25 2/3 innings in the majors this season, so it's reasonable to skeptical about his 8.77 ERA and 5.17 xFIP. Still, Davis posted a 4.50 ERA and 6.70 xFIP across 60 innings pitched in Triple-A this season and shows no signs of being able to handle the Dodgers at Coors Field today. Left-handed hitters are slugging .564 against Davis.
Xander Bogaerts – SS, SDP vs. Sean Manaea ($4,500 DK, $3,200 FD)
The Padres are playing irrelevant baseball right now, but Xander Bogaerts is having a torrid September. He sports a 1.206 OPS this month, including a .505 wOBA and 229 wRC+. Bogaerts has always handled left-handed pitching, slugging .467 against southpaws this season, part of a .477 career mark.
Sean Manaea is coming off a fantastic outing, but I'm not convinced by the success. Through 36 appearances, he owns a 4.36 xERA and 4.11 xFIP. Right-handed hitters are slugging .438 against Manaea this year.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez – OF, HOU vs. Bryce Miller ($5,600 DK, $3,900 FD)
Yordan Alvarez is capping off another outstanding season. He's slashing .293/.407/.586 with 30 home runs and a 174 wRC+. Alvarez has terrorized pitchers with a .624 xSLG, 17.9% barrel rate, 52.1% hard-hit rate, .296 xBA, 93.2 MPH average exit velocity, and .440 xwOBA.
YORDAN ALVAREZ WITH SOME AUTHORITY
pic.twitter.com/DKG5zaEcd9— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) September 26, 2023
Bryce Miller's future in this league looks like it could be bright, but for right now, he's got problems surrendering power. The rookie has allowed a .462 xSLG, 90.6 MPH average exit velocity, and 10.8% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .542 against Miller.
Max Kepler – OF, MIN vs. Joey Estes ($4,300 DK, $2,900 FD)
Max Kepler's .251/.324/.472 slash line and 23 home runs look good on the surface, but the underlying numbers are even more complimentary. Kepler has posted a .502 xSLG, 12.1% barrel rate, 48.6% hard-hit rate, 92.2 MPH average exit velocity, and .361 xwOBA.
After posting a 5.23 ERA and 6.04 xFIP across 32 2/3 innings in Triple-A, Joey Estes was ill-prepared for major league hitting. He surrendered six runs (five earned runs) over 4 2/3 innings during his major league debut last week against the Mariners. That included allowing three long balls, which builds off the 2.76 home runs per nine innings mark he posted in Triple-A.
Mark Canha– OF, MIL vs. Zack Thompson ($3,600 DK, $3,200 FD)
Mark Canha has been a surprisingly key contributor for Milwaukee since they acquired him from the Mets. He owns a .929 OPS and 156 wRC+ for the month of September. Canha has been hitting leadoff against left-handed pitchers, who he's slugging .460 against this season.
Zack Thompson's 45.9% groundball rate helps keep the ball in the ballpark, but that doesn't mean he isn't getting hit hard. He's surrendered a 44.2% hard-hit rate, 90.5 MPH average exit velocity, and .429 xSLG. Right-handed hitters are slugging .474 against Thompson.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Noah Davis
Favorite Plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez
Minnesota Twins vs. Joey Estes
Favorite Plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro
Also Consider: Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres
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