X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Scratch-Off TIme - Unexciting Lotto Tickets that Could Pay Off

Jason Katz looks at some less-hyped late-round picks for fantasy football leagues that could pay dividends in the later stages of 2019 drafts.

When you get into the latter stages of your draft, I know what you want to do. Don't lie to me. You want the young guys, you want rookies, you want super athletes. You want to take shots on the hype guys and "sleepers."

That's all well and good, and you're not wrong to target those attributes. Sometimes, though, you need to take a look at some of the boring guys; the ones that aren't getting all the buzz. These usually are players that don't have a ton of talent but have the situation and the opportunity to pay dividends.

For the purposes of the term "lotto ticket," I am limiting this to players with double-digit round ADPs. Now, let's look at some less exciting players that could still pay dividends in 2019 fantasy football leagues.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Carlos Hyde (RB, KC)

Remember when Carlos Hyde was a three-down workhorse on the 49ers? Could you believe that was a mere two seasons ago? He spent the first four years of his career on one team and in 365 days has managed to wear three different teams' jerseys.

Hyde's talent doesn't even really matter in this analysis. He is the backup to Damien Williams on the league's best offense. Any replacement level running back can be an RB1 on the Chiefs. Hyde is one injury away from being that guy. And even if he ends up in a timeshare with Darwin Thompson or someone else, Hyde will have value if Williams isn't on the field. That is as good of a reason as any to take a shot on him in the 10th round.

 

Adrian Peterson (RB, WAS)

How the mighty has fallen... and risen. If any player were going to rise from the dead, it would be Purple Jesus. Adrian Peterson was once one of the most exciting players in the league. He's one of the most exciting players in NFL history. Playing well past his prime and being one of those guys that refuses to go away, Peterson is now nothing more than a plodder. But plod away he will on the Redskins low volume offense.

While his ceiling his low, AP's ADP does not accurately reflect his role. He is the starting running back for an NFL team. He's the definition of unexciting, but as we saw in 2018, he can volume his way to RB2 numbers when the game script allows for it. Derrius Guice is still not fully recovered from multiple surgeries to repair his torn ACL. Given how early in the preseason he sustained the injury, there should be no concerns about his availability for the 2019 regular season. Yet, concerns persist. Even if Guice is able to play, I expect at the very least a timeshare with Peterson. If Guice suffers a setback or reinjures himself, then its 2018 all over again for AP, which is worth at least a 10th round pick.

 

Peyton Barber (RB, TB)

Another plodder with very little athletic ability is Peyton Barber. He is here due to circumstance. He is the starting running back for what projects to be one of the league's better offenses, and he is the favorite for goal-line carries. He was 10th in the league in red-zone touches in 2018. Most importantly, he has one of the least talented running backs in the NFL behind him in Ronald Jones.

Barber's receiving upside is capped by the presence of Bruce Arians darling, Andre Ellington, but Barber wasn't relevant much in the receiving game last year anyway. Barber has a 12th-round ADP and should be safe to project for over 200 touches. I do not buy the Ronald Jones hype, because to put it as simply as I can, Jones is terrible at football and shouldn't be in the NFL. He is that bad. Barber is nothing special, but he's at least replacement level, and that is good enough if he is getting the volume.

 

Mike Davis (RB, CHI)

The forgotten man in the Bears backfield. Tarik Cohen is the exciting playmaker. David Montgomery is the exciting rookie. Mike Davis is just some guy the team signed that no one cares about. Davis is actually a very solid player. He has a three-down skill set and is no lock to cede his role to the rookie. I do think Montgomery will usurp Davis in short order, but what if he doesn't or suffers injury?

Davis is literally going undrafted right now. If Davis ends up with even a 40% opportunity share and goal-line work for an offense that has 250 carries vacated by Jordan Howard's departure, he will have fantasy value. If either Montgomery or Cohen was to get hurt, Davis could step in for either of them. Sure, there would be a drop off in productivity, especially if he was replacing Cohen, but the opportunity would be there. You can put Davis on your bench, see how the first couple weeks play out, and either you have something, or you drop him at the cost of nothing.

 

Donte Moncrief (WR, PIT)

I hesitate to say anything positive about Donte Moncrief because it pains me to do so. I do not think he is particularly good at football. However, we have seen him excel in the red zone before, catching seven touchdowns in nine games with Andrew Luck in 2016. The Steelers have a huge vacancy at the WR2 position. It could be James Washington, Diontae Johnson, or Donte Moncrief. The Steelers WR2 will have fantasy value. It may be a week to week thing. It may be one guy that takes the job.

The reason Moncrief is the one on this list is that there is nothing exciting about Moncrief. Washington is entering his second season and was the presumed player to hype up once Antonio Brown was traded. Johnson is a rookie, and everyone loves rookies. Moncrief kind of gets lost in the shuffle. We should have more clarity on this as draft day nears, but, for now, Moncrief belongs in the conversation just as much as anyone. If he could somehow find his way to 90 Ben Roethlisberger targets, he would be sure to shatter his 11th round ADP value.

 

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Last, but certainly not least, is a quarterback. When you hear the name Dak Prescott, you don't get excited. I mean, I do, because I'm a Cowboys fan, but from a fantasy perspective, Prescott really doesn't move the needle. Except, he should. Prescott's currently ADP is the QB17. That's absolutely ridiculous.

Prescott has been in the NFL for three seasons. Here are his seasonal finishes: QB7, QB10, QB17. But that QB17 finish last season is misleading as Prescott's performance significantly improved with the arrival of Amari Cooper. Depending on what quarterbacks you think qualify, Prescott was about the QB10 from Weeks 8-16, when he had Cooper.

The Cowboys have been a low volume passing offense, and Prescott has always found a way to be a QB1. He has the rushing cheat code. What if the Cowboys decide to throw a little more? What if Prescott is a little more efficient in scoring touchdowns? Prescott has a safe floor, and his ceiling is what we saw during his first seven weeks in 2017 when he was the overall QB1. Prescott's 11th round ADP isn't even entirely accurate. As the QB17, he can likely be had even later. He's not exciting, but he has a very high ceiling at very little cost.

More ADP Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Zack Wheeler

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings, Punches Out 10
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
George Springer

Exits Early Monday With Neck Injury
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Hunter Goodman

Likely Headed to Injured List
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Trent Grisham

Exits With Hamstring Tightness
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr., Bucks Reach Agreement on a New Contract
Brooklyn Nets

D'Angelo Russell Heading to Dallas
Denver Nuggets

Bruce Brown Jr. Heading Back to Denver
Atlanta Hawks

Clint Capela Returning to Houston
Cameron Johnson

Traded to Denver
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Michael Porter Jr.

Traded to Brooklyn
Matt Chapman

Could Return for Start of Giants Homestand
Wyatt Langford

Expected to Return on Saturday
Yanquiel Fernández

Yanquiel Fernandez Called Up to Majors
Tyler Mahle

Dealing With Rotator-Cuff Strain
Brooklyn Nets

Ziaire Williams Expected to Return to Nets
Austin Wells

to Miss Next Two Games
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Set to Become an Unrestricted Free Agent
Bo Bichette

Scratched With Sore Knee
Phoenix Suns

Cody Martin to Enter Free Agency
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Staying with Clippers
Jurickson Profar

to Return on Wednesday
Utah Jazz

Jazz Finalize Contract Buyout for Jordan Clarkson
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Staying with Nets
Colby Thomas

Called Up From Triple-A
Shea Langeliers

A's Reinstate Shea Langeliers From Injured List
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Bryce Harper

Activated and Starting on Monday
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Lands on Injured List With Fractured Ribs
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF