X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Scratch-Off TIme - Unexciting Lotto Tickets that Could Pay Off

Jason Katz looks at some less-hyped late-round picks for fantasy football leagues that could pay dividends in the later stages of 2019 drafts.

When you get into the latter stages of your draft, I know what you want to do. Don't lie to me. You want the young guys, you want rookies, you want super athletes. You want to take shots on the hype guys and "sleepers."

That's all well and good, and you're not wrong to target those attributes. Sometimes, though, you need to take a look at some of the boring guys; the ones that aren't getting all the buzz. These usually are players that don't have a ton of talent but have the situation and the opportunity to pay dividends.

For the purposes of the term "lotto ticket," I am limiting this to players with double-digit round ADPs. Now, let's look at some less exciting players that could still pay dividends in 2019 fantasy football leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Carlos Hyde (RB, KC)

Remember when Carlos Hyde was a three-down workhorse on the 49ers? Could you believe that was a mere two seasons ago? He spent the first four years of his career on one team and in 365 days has managed to wear three different teams' jerseys.

Hyde's talent doesn't even really matter in this analysis. He is the backup to Damien Williams on the league's best offense. Any replacement level running back can be an RB1 on the Chiefs. Hyde is one injury away from being that guy. And even if he ends up in a timeshare with Darwin Thompson or someone else, Hyde will have value if Williams isn't on the field. That is as good of a reason as any to take a shot on him in the 10th round.

 

Adrian Peterson (RB, WAS)

How the mighty has fallen... and risen. If any player were going to rise from the dead, it would be Purple Jesus. Adrian Peterson was once one of the most exciting players in the league. He's one of the most exciting players in NFL history. Playing well past his prime and being one of those guys that refuses to go away, Peterson is now nothing more than a plodder. But plod away he will on the Redskins low volume offense.

While his ceiling his low, AP's ADP does not accurately reflect his role. He is the starting running back for an NFL team. He's the definition of unexciting, but as we saw in 2018, he can volume his way to RB2 numbers when the game script allows for it. Derrius Guice is still not fully recovered from multiple surgeries to repair his torn ACL. Given how early in the preseason he sustained the injury, there should be no concerns about his availability for the 2019 regular season. Yet, concerns persist. Even if Guice is able to play, I expect at the very least a timeshare with Peterson. If Guice suffers a setback or reinjures himself, then its 2018 all over again for AP, which is worth at least a 10th round pick.

 

Peyton Barber (RB, TB)

Another plodder with very little athletic ability is Peyton Barber. He is here due to circumstance. He is the starting running back for what projects to be one of the league's better offenses, and he is the favorite for goal-line carries. He was 10th in the league in red-zone touches in 2018. Most importantly, he has one of the least talented running backs in the NFL behind him in Ronald Jones.

Barber's receiving upside is capped by the presence of Bruce Arians darling, Andre Ellington, but Barber wasn't relevant much in the receiving game last year anyway. Barber has a 12th-round ADP and should be safe to project for over 200 touches. I do not buy the Ronald Jones hype, because to put it as simply as I can, Jones is terrible at football and shouldn't be in the NFL. He is that bad. Barber is nothing special, but he's at least replacement level, and that is good enough if he is getting the volume.

 

Mike Davis (RB, CHI)

The forgotten man in the Bears backfield. Tarik Cohen is the exciting playmaker. David Montgomery is the exciting rookie. Mike Davis is just some guy the team signed that no one cares about. Davis is actually a very solid player. He has a three-down skill set and is no lock to cede his role to the rookie. I do think Montgomery will usurp Davis in short order, but what if he doesn't or suffers injury?

Davis is literally going undrafted right now. If Davis ends up with even a 40% opportunity share and goal-line work for an offense that has 250 carries vacated by Jordan Howard's departure, he will have fantasy value. If either Montgomery or Cohen was to get hurt, Davis could step in for either of them. Sure, there would be a drop off in productivity, especially if he was replacing Cohen, but the opportunity would be there. You can put Davis on your bench, see how the first couple weeks play out, and either you have something, or you drop him at the cost of nothing.

 

Donte Moncrief (WR, PIT)

I hesitate to say anything positive about Donte Moncrief because it pains me to do so. I do not think he is particularly good at football. However, we have seen him excel in the red zone before, catching seven touchdowns in nine games with Andrew Luck in 2016. The Steelers have a huge vacancy at the WR2 position. It could be James Washington, Diontae Johnson, or Donte Moncrief. The Steelers WR2 will have fantasy value. It may be a week to week thing. It may be one guy that takes the job.

The reason Moncrief is the one on this list is that there is nothing exciting about Moncrief. Washington is entering his second season and was the presumed player to hype up once Antonio Brown was traded. Johnson is a rookie, and everyone loves rookies. Moncrief kind of gets lost in the shuffle. We should have more clarity on this as draft day nears, but, for now, Moncrief belongs in the conversation just as much as anyone. If he could somehow find his way to 90 Ben Roethlisberger targets, he would be sure to shatter his 11th round ADP value.

 

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Last, but certainly not least, is a quarterback. When you hear the name Dak Prescott, you don't get excited. I mean, I do, because I'm a Cowboys fan, but from a fantasy perspective, Prescott really doesn't move the needle. Except, he should. Prescott's currently ADP is the QB17. That's absolutely ridiculous.

Prescott has been in the NFL for three seasons. Here are his seasonal finishes: QB7, QB10, QB17. But that QB17 finish last season is misleading as Prescott's performance significantly improved with the arrival of Amari Cooper. Depending on what quarterbacks you think qualify, Prescott was about the QB10 from Weeks 8-16, when he had Cooper.

The Cowboys have been a low volume passing offense, and Prescott has always found a way to be a QB1. He has the rushing cheat code. What if the Cowboys decide to throw a little more? What if Prescott is a little more efficient in scoring touchdowns? Prescott has a safe floor, and his ceiling is what we saw during his first seven weeks in 2017 when he was the overall QB1. Prescott's 11th round ADP isn't even entirely accurate. As the QB17, he can likely be had even later. He's not exciting, but he has a very high ceiling at very little cost.

More ADP Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Quinshon Judkins

to Have "Snaps Closely Monitored" Versus Baltimore
Jauan Jennings

a "Game-Time" Decision for Week 2, Optimism That he'll Play
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Russell Wilson

Giants Have No Urgency to Bench Russell Wilson
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Brock Bowers

Officially Questionable for Monday Night
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Christian Kirk

Ruled Out for Week 2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Brock Bowers

Expected to Play on Monday Night
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
Chris Godwin

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Xavier Worthy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Austin Ekeler

Suffers Torn Achilles
Quinshon Judkins

Expected to Play Against Ravens
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Kyle Larson

Can Kyle Larson Dominate at Bristol Again?
Denny Hamlin

One of the Best at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

All Eyes on Ryan Blaney at Bristol
Chase Briscoe

Whiffs in Qualifying, Will Start 31st in Bristol Night Race
Ty Gibbs

Could Contend at Bristol
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RapSheet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Expected to Be Lead Back Moving Forward
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out Against Saints
Jauan Jennings

Given Questionable Tag for Week 2
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Dallas Goedert

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Xavier Worthy

Listed as Doubtful to Play in Week 2
Jayden Reed

Hopes to Return in November Following Surgery
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Quinshon Judkins

Questionable to Make NFL Debut in Week 2
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Sees Little Usage in Week 2, Outlook Still Trending Upwards?
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Leads Commanders in Catches, Scores Touchdown Again
Tucker Kraft

Posts Huge Performance on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Lack of Joe Mixon Injury Updates Sparking Concern for Fantasy Managers?
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP