Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 RBC Heritage

April 17, 2024

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Masters!

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Harbour Town Golf Links. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 RBC Heritage outright betting card.

The five names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 23 outright winners (a 21.1% hit rate) for a profit of nearly $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 41.0%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. Still, suppose you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process. In that case, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 RBC Heritage!

2024 RBC Heritage Betting Card

Ludvig Aberg (16-1)

NO QUIT IN THE SWEDE! 🇸🇪

Ludvig Åberg stays lockstep with Scheffler with a birdie of his own and extends his solo-second lead!

Anyone sweating Aberg Top 5 at +450?

👉 https://t.co/POitntj36M…#TheMasters

pic.twitter.com/51o78VCtKY

— Coolbet Canada 🇨🇦 (@CoolbetCanada) April 14, 2024

There are, of course, concerns with backing a 24-year-old recent college grad one week off of one of the biggest weeks of his life, but nothing in my numbers could find a reason to steer away from Ludvig Aberg at Harbour Town. His runner-up finish at Augusta National marked the seventh consecutive start in which he's finished inside the top 25 -- a stretch that also includes a pair of runner-ups and two additional top 10s in Elevated Events.

Ludvig has also proven to be particularly proficient at navigating the Tour's shortest setups. His first PGA Tour victory came just two hours down the road at last fall's RSM Classic, his first professional top five came at 7,100-yard TPC Deere Run, and he recently notched the best tee-to-green week of his career at TPC Sawgrass: another Pete Dye design with a similar set of decision points off of its tee boxes.

We all know how elite the driving tool has been for Aberg since bursting onto the scene last summer, but it is the recent strides he's shown on the second shot that really have golf pundits rushing to buy stock. Over his last three starts in Ponte Vedra, San Antonio, and Augusta, Ludvig has gained a whopping 13.5 shots to the field on Approach. He ranks sixth in this star-studded field in Birdie Chances, Created to this point in 2024. Since arriving on Tour, he's sat at or above the 90th percentile in GIR %, Proximity to the Hole, and Poor Shot Avoidance from our key range of 150-200 yards. If Scottie Scheffler does decide to release his current vice-grip on the Tour's biggest titles, it seems inevitable that Ludvig stands to be among the first beneficiaries.

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

An ace and a twirl 💯@Patrick_Cantlay made his third career hole-in-one on TOUR @RBC_Heritage last season.#TOURVault pic.twitter.com/qok0xrpRYg

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 17, 2024

We're all still waiting for Patrick Cantlay's long-overdue breakthrough in a Major Championship, but if there is one style of golf that the World No. 8 has proven to be repeatedly proficient in, it has been on golf courses exactly like Harbour Town. From right here on Hilton Head, to direct comps in Pebble Beach, TPC River Highlands, PGA West, and TPC Summerlin, Cantlay has racked up an incredible 24 top-15 finishes over the course of his illustrious career.

He also comes into the week on the back of the second-best approach week of his 2024 campaign (+3.92 over his four days at Augusta) and has navigated the greens very well around this venue since making his debut in 2017 (gaining over half a stroke per round with his putter in six career starts).

Surprisingly, through 3+ months of 2024, Cantlay has proven to be a volatile (if not outright disappointing) commodity. Even through this rough stretch, however, he has shown a consistent propensity for popping up at the venues he's traditionally favored (Rivera, Pebble Beach, PGA West, Kapalua). With five finishes of seventh or better already to his name on Hilton Head Island, this is the perfect spot to get some momentum going.

Max Homa (40-1)

Max Homa dart!

A pro for 11 years, he's one shot off the lead as he searches for his first major title. pic.twitter.com/qbjeTdSJ6U

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 14, 2024

It's curious to me that while fellow Masters' top-fivers Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, and Ludvig Aberg have seen their outright numbers tank the following week, Max Homa can still be found at prices as high as 40-1 on BookMaker. Max has been known to run hot and cold through his professional career, and with four top 25 finishes over his last five starts, a rapidly warming putter, and a T3 finish at Augusta that also included his best approach week we've seen since his win in last fall's Nedbank, Homa seems very much like a man finding his form in golf's most high-leverage stretch of the season.

Many of his detractors will point to a truly abysmal showing here at Harbour Town 12 months ago, as Max recorded the worst ball-striking week of his entire 2023 season (-4.5) en route to an ugly missed cut. However, this dud did happen to fall right in the middle of two of his worst competitive showings of the year: a final-round 78 at Augusta National, and a two-round debacle alongside partner Morikawa around TPC Louisiana, where the pre-tournament favorites crashed out of the Zurich Classic in unceremonious fashion.

I don't believe last year's performance is indicative of Max's true potential around these links, as just three years prior, Homa recorded the single-best ball-striking performance of his 2020 campaign right here on Hilton Head Island. In just the second week back from the COVID hiatus, Max ranked 8th in Total Driving, 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and made 20 birdies for the week in a star-studded field that included all but two of the OWGR top 10.

Given his current trajectory, I'm looking to remain well ahead of consensus on Max as we march through a portion of the schedule where he's laid down a lot of career markers (Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, etc.). Even without the comfort of an extensive Harbour Town CV, I don't think books are nearly pricing in his weekly upside at 35-40/1.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Shane Lowry (75-1)

Shane Lowry. Golf shot. pic.twitter.com/Z59Xh0y992

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) April 13, 2024

We caught a bit of a shock opener on FanDuel Monday morning, but even at his current price of 45-1, I still see a bit of value in the Irishman here on Hilton Head. With eight top 20s in the last three years between PGA National, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, and Harbour Town, Shane Lowry has established himself as one of the Tour's preeminent threats on these Southeastern, positional tracks.

This week, he comes into the Heritage on the back of a field-leading 6.44 strokes gained on Approach at Augusta National -- running his current streak up to four straight weeks where the 2019 Open Champion has gained at least four shots on approach. His scalding iron form is complemented by one of the most reliable off-the-tee profiles on the entire PGA Tour (3rd in Fairways Gained; 9th in Good Drive Percentage), as well as a Heritage track record that can rival even Harbour Town's stanchest course horses.

Lowry has recorded finishes of third, ninth, and third in four Harbour Town starts dating back to 2019, and gained strokes putting around these links in four of his six career appearances. He's recently experienced an increase in his putting baselines since the Tour shifted into his adopted home state of Florida: gaining a combined 4.0 strokes to the field on the greens of Bay Hill and PGA National. As long as the putter doesn't betray him as it did on Augusta's treacherous confines last week, there's no reason to project anything less than another stellar result for Lowry in the South Carolina low-country.

Lucas Glover (120-1)

New solo leader @BarbasolChamp 💪@Lucas_Glover_ gets another birdie to move to 8-under. pic.twitter.com/hhZ61Oafna

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 13, 2023

I already mentioned in my Monday article that I'd feel comfortable endorsing Glover at prices above 80-1 (still available on BookMaker), but once again, we were able to catch a rogue number when lines opened. I'm still happy to jump in at the current market, however, as Glover fits every possible tee-to-green trend I'm looking for this week:

• Stellar incoming approach splits: Gained a combined 9.3 shots with his irons over two starts at Augusta/TPC San Antonio
• Second in the field (after Scottie Scheffler) in my long-term weighted proximity model
• Fifth in this field over the last 12 months gaining strokes from our key approach range of 150-200 yards
• Incredibly reliable off of the tee: ranking Sixth on Tour in Fairway Percentage and has gained over a stroke per round OTT over his 10 career starts in Hilton Head
• Sneaky good bunker player -- ranking 11th in this field in Sand Saves (four of the last five Heritage champions ranked inside the top 12 in Sand Saves).
  • Also ranks Fourth in Greenside Bunker Proximity, meaning his Sand Saves standing hasn't been entirely reliant on the putter.

Throw in the winning pedigree from last summer on two similarly positional southeastern Bermudagrass courses with a putter who has gained strokes in two of his last three starts, and the Clemson Tiger is absolutely worth a shot in the triple digits just a few hours down the road from his childhood home of Greenville.

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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