FFPC ADP Trends And Observations After Preseason Week 1

August 10, 2019

Scott Engel analyzes 2019 fantasy football ADP trends for the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) in terms of NFL player values. Which players are being overvalued or undervalued?

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Fantasy Football Drafting is really starting to pick up now in the High Stakes World of the FFPC. So it’s a good time to check in some trends as preseason play has started, and by Week 2 of exhibition play, we will see many more starters in action. Values may be altered some after another week of preseason matchups. Let’s see where some key players are being taken before we get even deeper into August.

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Latest FFPC ADP Trends

Holdout Views: The high stakes players have started to drop Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon on their boards, although they seem to have more confidence in Elliott returning than Gordon. Elliott is now the No. 4 overall player being taken, which is no real significant fall. Gordon, however, has tumbled to No. 25 overall and 14^th at RB. There is an obvious perception that Zeke may be closer to returning, but as we have seen in the past, the length of any holdout is totally unpredictable, and there is no solid reason to believe one guy will report any sooner than the other one.

Hot on the Lion: The release of Theo Riddick confirmed that Kerryon Johnson will be counted on to not only be Detroit’s lead runner, but also their top receiver out of the backfield. FFPC owners are now making him their Top RB2 selection, as he is the 13^th player being taken at the position. Drafters on other sites are not caught up on Johnson’s increased appeal yet, as he is being taken as the 16^th to 23^rd RB on three other notable Fantasy platforms. Note: As soon as I wrote this, Johnson was taken with the 10^th pick of the second round in my FFPC Slow Classic Draft.

Bigger on the Bear: David Montgomery has stirred a lot of buzz with an impressive preseason opener, but FFPC types were high on him even before last night. He is the 20^th RB being taken in the latest report, while he is 27^th or 28^th on four other notable sites. His ADP is sure to rise over the next week or so, but do keep in mind Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen will still be in the Bears RB picture when play begins for real.

Coming Around to Coleman?: The high stakes crowd seems to have a little more confidence in Tevin Coleman than competitors on other sites. Coleman is the 28^th RB off the board in the FFPC, while he is being picked between 31^st and 33^rd on fourth other prominent sites. Jerick McKinnon is still battling knee problems, while Coleman is emerging as the clear No. 1 RB in San Francisco. But Coleman also showed last year in Atlanta he may not be suited to carry a major load, so he could split a good amount of time with Matt Breida if McKinnon continues to have health problems.

Bumping the Bengal Down: Owners on a few other sites are apparently still showing some hope that A.J. Green may make a quick recovery from his ankle injury. He is going as early as 13^th to 15^th at WR on two other sites, while FFPCers have dropped him to 21^st at the position. In this recent Fantasy Injury Exam Room, we pointed out that Green could miss up to three months, and will remain a high risk when he returns, so he may only be truly draftable in the WR3 range right now.

A Firm Approach to Allison: There were recent reports that Marques Valdes-Scantling will likely operate as the top outside WR for the Packers. But the high stakes players have continued to maintain faith that Geronimo Allison will be the second-best Fantasy wideout on the team. Allison is ticketed to operate out of the slot, where his size could be advantageous. FFPC players are the only ones drafting him as a Fantasy starter, as the 35^th WR off the board. He is 43^rd to 50^th on all other sites.

Holding Back on Harry?: Reports out of camp on rookie N’Keal Harry suggested he’s been inconsistent and a work in progress. That seemed to affect his FFPC ADP a bit, as he is the 45^th WR being taken. He is still being taken 36^th to 42^nd at the position on some other sites. Harry did make two impressive catches in the preseason opener to renew some hope, then suffered a minor ankle injury. The latter fact could affect his ADP outside of the FFPC some.

Waving Washington Away?: Some camp reports have indicated James Washington is not faring well in the competition at WR. It has already been suggested that Donte Moncrief could open he season as the starter, and this week talk surfaced that rookie Diontae Johnson could threaten Washington’s place on the depth chart. FFPC players are lower on Washington than drafters on any other site. He is being taken as the 52^nd WR and his stock may continue to drop.

Murray is the Move: FFPC players favor rookie Kyler Murray than owners on any other site. He is the No. 10 QB off the board, and after an impressive preseason opener where he flashed elusiveness and accuracy, his appeal may start to rise on any site you draft on. The high stakers were the first to value him over all others, so keep a watch on FFPC trends to stay ahead of the pack elsewhere.

Raven on the Radar: There is a lot of skepticism in Fantasy circles that Lamar Jackson may improve as a passer this year. But FFPC owners are more confident in any progress than owners on some other platforms. Jackson is the 17^th QB off the board in the FFPC, while he is going between 18^th and 24^th on some other platforms. Jackson does lack any real proven pass-catchers, though, and that factor should keep him from being a true high-end QB2.

Not Feeling Fant: Noah Fant has the potential to contribute immediately as a Fantasy TE, although it is often challenging for many pros to make a real dent in their first season. He is being picked 13^th to 16^th at the position on other sites. In the FFPC, though, he is not being taken in the Top 20 at TE. I really like Fant a lot from the pure talent perspective. I think he is a special player. I’ll take him in the Top 15 when others won’t on the chance he could be more productive than your average rookie TE.

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