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Fantasy football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em and lineup advice for all 2024-25 Divisional Round matchups. Joey Pollizze analyzes in-depth matchups via game-by-game breakdowns.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to the Divisional Round! If you are new here, this matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em article will look at the best and worst matchups of the week.
With Wild Card Weekend officially over, we look ahead to the Divisional Round. There will be four games this week, and both the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions will come back from their byes well-rested.
So, let's dive into every Divisional Round game and analyze the best starts and sits. This article will go through every player in every game to determine which players you should be starting this weekend.
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -7.5
Matchups We Love:
Things are certainly trending in the right direction for Xavier Worthy. Worthy is averaging 21 PPR fantasy points per game over his last three contests while seeing 31 total targets during that span. So, the rookie will be a solid play this weekend against the Texans.
Houston just allowed Ladd McConkey to total 197 receiving yards from the slot last week, and Worthy scored 20.5 PPR fantasy against this secondary back in Week 16.
It has been tough to trust Dalton Schultz for most of the year. He has scored in double figures in PPR formats just twice this season and has caught three passes or fewer in three straight games.
However, Schultz scored 15.5 PPR fantasy points the last time he faced this Chiefs defense in Week 16. Given that Kansas City allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the regular season, he could be a nice value play.
Matchups We Hate:
RB Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon ran the ball well last week against the Chargers, totaling 106 yards on the ground and one touchdown. But he'll be a risker option this weekend against the Chiefs.
Kansas City has given up the fewest fantasy points to the position, and opposing running backs are averaging only 3.8 yards per carry on the ground against this front seven this season. So, it might be best to stay away from him in the Divisional Round.
Update: Mixon is questionable for Saturday's game due to an ankle injury.
Since coming back from injury, Isiah Pacheco has not done much. He has played under 38% of the team's offensive snaps in four of the five games and hasn't scored over 8.2 PPR fantasy points in any of those contests. Now, he'll go up against a Texans defense that is allowing only 3.93 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. So, Pacheco is a riskier option this weekend.
RB Kareem Hunt
Even with Pacheco back in the lineup, Kareem Hunt has out-snapped him in consecutive games. In both those contests, Hunt also scored a touchdown. Still, the veteran running back will be a riskier DFS play this weekend against the Texans. Houston allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season.
DeAndre Hopkins has been somewhat disappointing since arriving in Kansas City. He has totaled under 40 receiving yards in six of the past seven games and has totaled under 10 PPR fantasy points in three straight contests.
Unfortunately, things don't get easier for him in the Divisional Round. Hopkins will likely go up against Derek Stingley Jr. in this game. Stingley ranks third in catch rate allowed this season.
Other Matchups:
QB C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud played well last week, throwing for 282 yards and one touchdown. He also threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns against this Chiefs defense just a couple of weeks ago. However, Stroud will be a lower-end quarterback option in the Divisional Round. Kansas City had two weeks to prepare for the Texans quarterback, and he has scored under 19 fantasy points in 12 straight games.
Patrick Mahomes will enter the Divisional Round with multiple weeks of rest. He did not play in Week 18 and had a bye during Wild Card Weekend. So, it'll be interesting to see if he comes out slow in Saturday's game. However, he'll be a solid quarterback play this weekend. He scored 23.7 fantasy points against the Texans back in Week 16, thanks to a rushing touchdown early in the game.
15 in 4k 😤 pic.twitter.com/PiK2aN1vQ8
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 13, 2025
Marquise Brown has looked solid in his two games back from injury. In Week 16, he totaled five catches for 45 yards on eight targets against the Texans.
Then, he totaled four catches for 46 yards on seven targets in Week 17 against the Steelers. So, Brown does have some potential this weekend against a Texans defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in the regular season.
WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins struggled to put up big fantasy numbers toward the end of the regular season, but he showed up big-time in the team's Wild Card game against the Chargers. He caught seven passes for 122 yards and one touchdown.
Although Collins will likely be guarded by Trent McDuffie for most of this game, the Pro Bowl wideout can still be a solid option in fantasy. McDuffie ranks 93rd in receptions allowed this season.
With Tank Dell (knee) and Stefon Diggs (knee) both out for the season, John Metchie has stepped into that WR2 role for the Texans. While he hasn't produced much in that role, he can be a dart throw in some DFS contests this weekend. He has seen eight targets in two of the past three games, including last week against the Chargers.
TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce's production wasn't as strong toward the end of the regular season. He only scored above 14 PPR fantasy points once from Week 11 to Week 17. However, the veteran tight end will continue to be a strong fantasy option in the Divisional Round against the Texans. Kelce always seems to show up when it's the playoffs.
Injuries:
- Joe Mixon (ankle)
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -8.5
Matchups We Love:
Jayden Daniels did not play like a rookie in his first playoff game last week. He threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns and finished with 22.3 fantasy points. Now, he has a great fantasy matchup this weekend against a banged-up Lions secondary.
Detroit allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the final month of the regular season, and Daniels has scored above 22 fantasy points in six of the past seven games.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
David Montgomery is back for the Divisional Round, but that shouldn't change much for Jahmyr Gibbs' fantasy value this weekend.
The Commanders allowed almost 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Bucky Irving totaled 77 rush yards against this run defense a week ago. Given that Gibbs has been unstoppable for most of the year, he will remain a strong play this week.
RB David Montgomery
It's almost a miracle that Montgomery even has a chance to play in this game. While he will likely not see anywhere near a full workload on Saturday night, he does have the touchdown upside to be a potential DFS play against the Commanders.
Washington allowed almost 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Montgomery scored a touchdown in 10 of 14 games this year.
Update: Montgomery is off the injury report and will play on Saturday.
Lions HC Dan Campbell says he expects RB David Montgomery (knee) to be ready for Divisional Round. pic.twitter.com/UotTILF23j
— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2025
Terry McLaurin was one of the regular season's most consistent fantasy wide receiver options. That continued in the Wild Card Round, as McLaurin totaled seven catches for 89 yards and one touchdown en route to a 21.9 PPR fantasy point day.
As a result, he will remain a strong play this weekend against a Lions secondary that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in the regular season.
Matchups We Hate:
TE Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz has been a solid tight end option for most of the year. Although he caught just two passes for 23 yards in last week's win, the veteran has scored above 12 PPR fantasy points in five of the past eight games. However, Ertz will be a lower-end tight end option during the Divisional Round. The Lions have allowed only three tight ends to score in double figures in PPR formats this season.
Other Matchups:
QB Jared Goff
Jared Goff will be an appealing quarterback option against the Commanders. He has scored above 23 fantasy points in four of the past five games and has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 12 of the last 15 contests. Although Washington has allowed just one quarterback (Baker Mayfield) to throw for multiple passing touchdowns in a game since Week 14, Goff is still a solid play this weekend.
It's going to be pretty difficult for many to trust Brian Robinson Jr. this weekend. He has totaled just 26 rush yards over the past two games and has finished with under 10 PPR fantasy points in four straight games.
Even though the Lions allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the final month of the season, Robinson's recent play makes him a riskier option this weekend.
Austin Ekeler gave the Commanders' offense a boost in the Wild Card Round behind his 11 touches. So, Ekeler can be a value DFS play this weekend against the Lions. Ekeler played 47% of the team's offensive snaps last week and finished with 8.3 PPR fantasy points. With Washington a big underdog in this game, though, the team could use him more in the receiving game.
WRs Olamide Zaccheaus/Dyami Brown
Both Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown have had some strong games in recent weeks. Zaccheaus didn't do much in last week's win but did total over 20 PPR fantasy points in both Week 16 and Week 17.
As for Brown, he had a career day last week, totaling five catches for 89 yards and one touchdown. So, both players can be potential dart throws in DFS plays this weekend against a Lions secondary that has struggled recently.
Amon-Ra St. Brown will remain a go-to target for Jared Goff. St. Brown caught a career-high 12 touchdown passes in the regular season, and he'll be a strong fantasy play in the Divisional Round against the Commanders.
Although Washington has done a nice job against slot wideouts this season, they have allowed some big games to slot wideouts like Zay Flowers(132 receiving yards) and Chris Godwin (22.3 PPR fantasy points).
Jameson Williams has been a consistent fantasy option in recent weeks, making him an appealing fantasy play in the Divisional Round.
Williams has caught at least five passes in six of the past seven games and has scored above 24 PPR fantasy points in two of the last three contests. He'll likely be matched up against Marshon Lattimore in this game, but that matchup shouldn't scare anyone based on how Lattimore looked last week.
TE Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta has really come on in fantasy over the past two months. He has scored in double figures in PPR formats in six straight games and has caught at least six passes in three of the past four weeks.
As a result, LaPorta can be a top fantasy tight end option in the Divisional Round against a Commanders defense that has allowed over 10 PPR fantasy points to the position in six of the last 10 contests.
Injuries:
None
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Games
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -6
Matchups We Love:
Dallas Goedert had a solid fantasy game last week, finishing with 14.7 PPR fantasy points. Now, he has a fantastic matchup in the Divisional Round against the Rams.
Los Angeles gave up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the regular season and just allowed T.J. Hockenson to catch five passes for 64 yards and one touchdown last week. So, Goedert will be an appealing fantasy option this weekend.
Update: Goedert did not practice on Thursday due to an illness.
Matchups We Hate:
Matthew Stafford played a flawless game on Monday night against the Vikings in the Wild Card Round. However, he'll have his hands full in the Divisional Round against the Eagles.
Philadelphia allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, and this secondary has allowed only three quarterbacks to throw for multiple passing touchdowns in a game since Week 5. So, he'll be a risker play.
Kyren Williams has been a workhorse running back for the Rams all season and managed to get into the end zone in last week's Wild Card Round win. But he's going to be a lower-end option in the Divisional Round against the Eagles. Philadelphia's front seven has been elite all season, and Williams only scored 11.2 PPR fantasy points the last time he faced this defense back in Week 12.
WR Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp went from being Stafford's favorite target to not even being involved in the passing game. Kupp only caught one pass in last week's win. So, he will be a riskier flex option in the Divisional Round in a tough matchup against the Eagles secondary.
The veteran will likely go up against Cooper DeJean on Sunday, and DeJean ranked first in yards per reception allowed in the regular season.
Rams vs. Eagles.
See you Sunday. #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/EJty29qvfJ
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2025
Other Matchups:
QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts definitely had his struggles last week in his first game back from a concussion. But he will remain a solid quarterback play this weekend against the Rams.
Los Angeles has done a solid job against fantasy quarterbacks over the past few months, holding six different quarterbacks to under 16 fantasy points since Week 10. So, this isn't as strong of a matchup for Hurts as some might think.
Saquon Barkley was unstoppable the last time he faced the Rams back in Week 12. Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns while scoring 46.2 PPR fantasy points. While he likely won't repeat that performance this weekend, he will continue to be a strong fantasy option in the Divisional Round. Los Angeles allowed the 11th-most rush yards in the regular season.
WR Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua was quiet for the most part in the Wild Card Round, catching five passes for 44 yards. However, he will be a nice fantasy play this weekend against the Eagles. Nacua totaled 117 receiving yards the last time he faced this Philadelphia secondary back in Week 12, and the Rams move him around on offense so much that he's a safer fantasy option.
WR A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown was held to just one catch in last week's win, but expect that to change in the Divisional Round against the Rams. Hurts only completed 13 passes in the Wild Card Round, and Brown had one of his better games of the season against this Los Angeles secondary back in Week 12.
He caught six passes for 109 yards and one touchdown in that game. So, a bounce-back performance should be in store for him.
DeVonta Smith will have some fantasy potential this weekend against the Rams. Smith has been more involved in the passing game in recent weeks, totaling over 50 receiving yards in each of his last four games.
During that span, the Eagles playmaker is averaging 19.65 PPR fantasy points. So, he can be a solid play. Los Angeles also just allowed Khalil Shakir to score 21.6 PPR fantasy points in the slot back in Week 14.
TE Tyler Higbee
Tyler Higbee left last week's game early due to a chest injury, so it remains to be seen if he will be able to suit up on Sunday against the Eagles. If he can, though, Higbee could wind up being a value play in DFS contests. The veteran was utilized early in last week's win and totaled five catches for 58 yards within the first two quarters before leaving the game.
Update: Higbee was limited in practice on Thursday.
Injuries:
- Tyler Higbee (chest)
- Dallas Goeder (illness)
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BAL -1
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry dominated on the ground last week against the Steelers, running for 186 yards and two touchdowns. There's now a strong chance that another dominant game will be in store for the veteran running back.
The Bills allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Henry ran for 199 yards against this Buffalo defense back in Week 4. That makes him a top player this weekend.
Matchups We Hate:
RB James Cook
After scoring only four rushing touchdowns combined in his first two NFL seasons, James Cook has rushed for 17 touchdowns during the 2024-2025 campaign (including one in last week's postseason win). However, he'll be a risker running back/flex play this weekend against the Ravens. Opposing running backs averaged only 3.45 yards per carry against this front seven during the regular season.
WR Amari Cooper
Since coming over from Cleveland, Amari Cooper has not been a strong fantasy option. He has scored under 10 PPR fantasy points in six of his last eight contests and has caught three passes or fewer in eight of his nine games in Buffalo.
So, it's best to probably stay away from him in fantasy this week. He's too hard to trust, and he'll likely be matched up against Marlon Humphrey on Sunday night.
Other Matchups:
Lamar Jackson will look to beat the Bills for the second time this season. In the first meeting, Jackson had three total touchdowns and finished with 23.6 fantasy points. So, he'll continue to be a strong quarterback option in the Divisional Round against a Buffalo defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of the past 10 games.
QB Josh Allen
Even though the Ravens' defense has played extremely well over the last few weeks, Josh Allen will still be a strong play in the Divisional Round. Allen has scored at least 20 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 full games, and his rushing gives him a higher ceiling than most fantasy quarterbacks this week. So, he's a top fantasy quarterback option against Baltimore.
WR Keon Coleman
It's going to be hard to rely on Keon Coleman in fantasy this weekend. Coleman only caught one pass for five yards last week and hasn't caught more than three passes in a game since Week 8. Given how well Baltimore's secondary has played over the past few weeks, the rookie will be a riskier option in the Divisional Round.
WR Khalil Shakir
Shakir is the one Bills wide receiver who can be a solid start in the Divisional Round against the Ravens. Shakir totaled six catches for 61 yards in last week's win and has scored in double figures in PPR formats in 12 of his 16 games this season. So, he'll be a safe high-floor fantasy option this weekend.
WR Zay Flowers
It remains to be seen if Flowers (knee) can play against the Bills. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network said last week that Flowers has an "outside chance" to play in the Divisional Round. If he plays, though, he'll be a solid fantasy option in most contests.
He has scored in double figures in PPR formats in five of his last six full games, and Buffalo allowed 16.1 PPR fantasy points per game to slot wideouts from Week 12 to Week 17.
Update: Flowers has not practiced so far this week and is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game.
If Flowers is not able to play on Sunday, Rashod Bateman would be a much more appealing DFS play.
He only saw two targets in last week's win but did catch a touchdown pass and finished with 10.4 PPR fantasy points in that contest. However, with Bateman likely being matched up against Christian Benford on Sunday, there might be better wideouts to roll within fantasy. Benford ranks 15th in receiving yards allowed this season.
Dalton Kincaid continues to see limited snaps in this Buffalo offense. Since returning from his knee injury in Week 15, Kincaid has played under 50% of the team's offensive snaps in four straight games.
As a result, he'll be a middle-of-the-pack tight end option in the Divisional Round against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed just two tight ends to score above 10 PPR fantasy points since Week 11.
TE Mark Andrews
Mark Andrews did not catch a touchdown pass in last week's win, ending a six-game touchdown streak. But he will still be a solid tight end play in the Divisional Round against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed a tight end to score at least 13 PPR fantasy points in three of the past five weeks, and Andrews has seen at least five targets in four of the last seven games.
If Flowers were to miss this game due to his knee injury, Isaiah Likely could be a potential tight end option. Likely caught three passes for 53 yards last week, and his four targets in that game were tied with Justice Hill for the team lead. So, he could wind up being a value play in DFS contests in a game that should feature a lot of points.
Injuries:
- Zay Flowers (knee)
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