RADIO
Fantasy football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em and lineup advice for all 2024-25 Conference Championship matchups. Joey Pollizze analyzes in-depth matchups via game-by-game breakdowns.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start 'em and sit 'em piece as we look ahead to the Conference Championship games! If you are new here, this matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em article will look at the best and worst matchups of the week.
There will be only two games this week as part of Conference Championship weekend. As a result, there aren't as many players to pick from in fantasy playoff pools or DFS contests. However, there are still plenty of superstar players to choose from.
So, let's dive into the two Conference Championship games this week and analyze the best starts and sits. This article will go through every player in every game to determine which players you should be starting on Sunday.
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Matchups Analysis - NFC Championship
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: PHI -5.5
Matchups We Love:
Saquon Barkley will be the best running back play this weekend. He has rushed for 324 yards and two touchdowns across the first two rounds of the playoffs and now gets a favorable matchup against the Commanders on Sunday.
The definition of electric⚡️@saquon
📺: #LARvsPHI on NBC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/25wqGdgYjX— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2025
Washington has allowed almost 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Barkley also rushed for over 145 yards and two touchdowns in both games against this front seven this year.
Matchups We Hate:
Expectations should be tempered for Brian Robinson Jr. this week against the Eagles. Even though Philadelphia has allowed an 80-plus yard rusher in three of the past four games, this front seven has allowed only five running backs to score above 13 PPR fantasy points since Week 4.
So, Robinson will be a risker play this weekend. He has scored under 12 PPR fantasy points in five of the past six games and only totaled 2.4 PPR fantasy points against this Eagles defense back in Week 16.
Terry McLaurin will face this Eagles secondary for the third time this season. In his first meeting, he caught just one pass for 10 yards, and in his second meeting, he caught five passes for 60 yards and one touchdown.
Although he had a much better game against this defense back in Week 16, it might be tough to rely on him in the NFC Championship game. Darius Slay Jr. and Quinyon Mitchell present a tough matchup for McLaurin on the outside. The Eagles also allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts in the regular season.
WR Dyami Brown
Dyami Brown has really stepped up for the Commanders over these last few weeks. He has totaled over 85 receiving yards in back-to-back playoff games while scoring above 15.5 PPR fantasy points in both of those contests.
However, this Eagles secondary is a tough matchup for Brown in this game. He'll likely be matched up against both Slay and Mitchell on Sunday, and both corners rank top-20 in catch rate allowed and passer rating allowed this season. Therefore, the Commanders wideout will be a riskier option in DFS contests this weekend.
Other Matchups:
Jayden Daniels will have his hands full on Sunday against the Eagles. Philadelphia allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season, and this secondary has allowed over 19 fantasy points to only five quarterbacks since Week 5.
However, Daniels will continue to be a solid start this week. He scored 36.4 fantasy points against this Eagles secondary the last time he faced them in Week 16, and the rookie quarterback has scored over 22 fantasy points in seven straight games that he started and finished.
QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts has not thrown for a ton of yards over the past couple of weeks. He has thrown for less than 180 yards in five of his past six full games. However, Hurts will remain a solid quarterback option this weekend, thanks to his rushing upside. He has 13 rushing touchdowns over his last 12 games.
Austin Ekeler is an interesting play in DFS contests this weekend. He totaled 88 yards from scrimmage in last week's win and continues to be a major factor in the passing game. So, even though the Eagles have been one of the best teams against the run this season, they ranked middle of the pack in terms of receptions allowed to running backs in the regular season.
Given that Ekeler caught eight passes for 89 yards against this Philadelphia defense back in Week 11, he can be a value play in DFS contests this weekend.
After a strong end to the regular season, Olamide Zaccheaus has been quiet in the receiving game in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Last week, Zaccheaus didn't catch a pass and played only 44% of the team's offensive snaps. As a result, he is going to be hard to trust in most DFS contests this weekend.
On top of that, he'll likely be matched up against Cooper DeJean on Sunday afternoon. DeJean ranked first in yards per reception allowed in the regular season.
WR A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown hasn't really been involved in the passing game in the first two rounds of the playoffs, catching just three passes for 24 yards. So, it might be tough to rely on him in most contests this weekend, especially since he'll likely be matched up against Marshon Lattimore on the outside.
However, Brown dominated Lattimore the last time these two teams played back in Week 16. He caught eight passes for 97 yards and one touchdown in that game. Even though most of those stats came with Kenny Pickett under center, the Eagles wideout could be in for a bounce-back game in the NFC Championship.
With Jalen Hurts averaging just 159 passing yards over his last six full games, DeVonta Smith has struggled to put up solid fantasy numbers. Smith has averaged just 7.8 PPR fantasy points in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs. As a result, he won't be a top fantasy option for most people this weekend.
Smith will also likely go up against slot cornerback Noah Igbinoghene, and Igbinoghene ranks top-20 in catch rate allowed, passer rating allowed, and yards per target allowed this season. Even though Amon-Ra St. Brown had a dominant game in the slot against this Washington secondary last week, Hurts' recent passing numbers do not bode well for the Eagles wideout on Sunday.
TE Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz had a solid fantasy day last week against a tough Lions secondary. So, he isn't necessarily a must-sit this weekend. Even though Philadelphia allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the regular season, Ertz does have some potential on Sunday.
He scored 18.7 PPR fantasy points against this secondary earlier this year, and this Eagles defense allowed Tyler Higbee to catch seven passes for 54 yards and one touchdown last week in the Divisional Round.
Dallas Goedert has put up solid fantasy numbers in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs. He has caught four passes in both games while finishing with at least 9.5 PPR fantasy points in each of those contests. So, he'll be a solid option in the NFC Conference Championship game against the Commanders.
Sam LaPorta just totaled 17.1 PPR fantasy points last week against this Washington secondary, and Goedert totaled 11.1 PPR fantasy points the last time he faced the Commanders back in Week 11.
Injuries:
None
Matchups Analysis - AFC Championship
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -1.5
Matchups We Love:
Although Isiah Pacheco has not looked great since returning from injury, he does have a great matchup in the AFC Championship game against the Bills. Buffalo allowed the third-most fantasy to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Derrick Henry and Justice Hill averaged 6.1 yards per carry on the ground against this front seven in the Divisional Round.
As a result, Pacheco can be a value play in some DFS contests this week. Just be careful trusting him, as he played only 31% of the team's offensive snaps in last week's win.
RB Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt will be a better fantasy option than Pacheco in the AFC Conference Championship game against the Bills. Hunt played 47% of the team's offensive snaps last week and scored a touchdown for the third straight game (not counting the Week 18 contest when most starters sat out).
Therefore, Hunt will have some potential in DFS contests this weekend. He has played over 42% of the team's offensive snaps in three consecutive games and now will face a Bills defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season.
Khalil Shakir remains Josh Allen's go-to target in the passing game. He has caught six passes in both playoff games while scoring above 12 PPR fantasy points in both contests. Now, he has a great matchup against the Chiefs this weekend.
Shakir caught eight passes for 70 yards the last time he faced this Kansas City secondary back in Week 11, and this Chiefs defense allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wideouts over the final six weeks of the regular season. As a result, the Bills playmaker will be one of the best wide receiver plays of the entire weekend.
Dalton Kincaid has not been a strong fantasy option for most of the year. He has scored in double figures in PPR formats just three times during the 2024-25 season and only caught one pass for 11 yards last week.
However, he can be a great value play in some contests this weekend. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the regular season, and Dalton Schultz scored 10.3 PPR fantasy points last week against them in the Divisional Round. That makes Kincaid a potential tight end option in a nice matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
RB James Cook
James Cook has seen a ton of opportunities in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He has totaled 43 touches in those two games while scoring at least 11 PPR fantasy points in both contests. But he'll be a riskier option this weekend against a tough Chiefs defense.
Kansas City allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the regular season, and Cook only managed 20 rush yards against the Chiefs back in Week 11. Although the third-year back scored two touchdowns in that game, he could struggle once again on the ground in the AFC Championship.
RB Ray Davis
Although Ray Davis scored a touchdown last week against the Ravens, he is not a strong fantasy start in the AFC Championship game. He has only seen a combined 13 snaps in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs and is the clear RB3 in this Buffalo backfield. So, he should be avoided against a tough Chiefs defense.
WR Amari Cooper
Rolling out Amari Cooper in any DFS contest this weekend is extremely risky. Cooper did not catch any passes in last week's win and only has six receptions across the past five games. On top of that, he could see Trent McDuffie in coverage for parts of this game. McDuffie ranks 12th in yards per reception allowed this season.
Other Matchups:
QB Josh Allen
Josh Allen will face the Chiefs for the fourth time in the playoffs on Sunday and will remain a strong fantasy quarterback option this weekend. Allen has scored above 27 fantasy points in each of his previous three meetings against Kansas City in the playoffs, including 30 fantasy points in last year's Divisional Round loss.
Why will this time around be different for the Bills vs the Chiefs?
Josh Allen discusses with @tracywolfson pic.twitter.com/MJUQcvONGH
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 20, 2025
Although Allen didn't have the best passing numbers against the Ravens last week, look for the All-Pro quarterback to bounce back in a big way in the AFC Championship. He also scored 24.98 fantasy points against the Chiefs earlier this year.
Patrick Mahomes has not been the best fantasy quarterback option this season. However, he could be a play in most contests this weekend. Mahomes always shows up for these big games and has averaged 28 fantasy points in his three playoff meetings against the Bills. Buffalo's secondary has also allowed over 18 fantasy points to the position in five of the past seven games.
RB Ty Johnson
If you are looking for a potential value play in DFS contests this weekend, Ty Johnson could be a sneaky option. He remains a major part of this Bills offense and has played at least 30% of the team's offensive snaps in six straight games, excluding Week 18 when most players sat out.
Although he only saw six opportunities in last week's win, he did score 15 PPR fantasy points in the Wild Card Round against the Broncos. So, he has the potential to score in double figures in this game, given his presence in the passing game.
WR Keon Coleman
Keon Coleman is another Bills wide receiver who might be hard to trust in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. Coleman has caught just two passes combined in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, and the rookie hasn't caught more than three passes in a game since Week 8. While he'll come in as a lower value in DFS contests, it's best to probably look elsewhere.
Curtis Samuel will be a risker fantasy play this weekend against the Chiefs. Samuel has played under 40% of the team's offensive snaps in both playoff games and only caught two passes for nine yards in last week's win.
Samuel, though, did have his best game of the season against the Chiefs back in Week 11. He caught five passes for 58 yards and one touchdown in that game. Given that the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to slot wideouts in the final six weeks of the regular season, the Bills wideout could be a dart-throw in DFS contests.
Xavier Worthy will be a solid play against the Bills. He has caught at least five passes in six straight games and appears to be Patrick Mahomes' favorite wideout to go to in the passing game. Given Worthy's speed and big-play potential, he will be a top wide receiver option in most contests this weekend.
Marquise Brown did not catch a pass in last week's Divisional Round, but it was encouraging to see him play a season-high 67% of the team's offensive snaps. As a result, Brown can be a sneaky play in most contests this weekend. He has totaled at least 45 receiving yards in two of his three games this season.
Brown will also have a solid matchup in the slot against Taron Johnson. Brown has played 48% of his snaps in the slot, and Johnson ranks 99th in catch rate allowed and 84th in passer rating allowed this season.
DeAndre Hopkins should not be a preferred option for most in DFS contests this week. Hopkins only played 31% of the team's offensive snaps last week and has totaled under 8.7 PPR fantasy points in four straight games.
While the veteran could show out on Sunday, his recent usage in the passing game makes him harder to trust. Hopkins has totaled less than 40 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games.
TE Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce had another dominating playoff performance last week, catching seven passes for 117 yards and one touchdown. The veteran tight end has now scored above 18 PPR fantasy points in 13 of his past 14 playoff games. As a result, he'll remain a strong tight end option this weekend against the Bills.
Kelce might have only scored 2.8 PPR fantasy points against the Bills the last time he faced them back in Week 11, but he always seems to show up when it's the playoffs. Buffalo also allowed nine catches for 134 yards and one touchdown to Baltimore tight ends a week ago in the Divisional Round.
Injuries:
None
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