RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 6 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 5 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 5, our biggest risers were Dontayvion Wicks, Jordan Whittington, Jayden Reed, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Legette. Our biggest fallers were Carson Steele, Rome Odunze, Travis Etienne Jr., and Zack Moss. Wicks didn’t cash in, but the opportunity was certainly there. In the meantime, it appears Etienne and Moss are starting to lose footing as the RB1 on their respective teams.
Now that we’ve recapped the previous week’s risers and fallers, let’s take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 6.
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Week 6 Fantasy Football Risers
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss suffered an ankle sprain in Week 5, but Chase Brown was already becoming more and more involved in the game plan. Week 5 was the first time this season Brown had a greater than 50% RB opportunity share (12 carries, three targets). He also has three touchdowns in the last two games despite splitting work with Moss.
Give No. 30 the ball and good things will happen. 🫡@Bengals | @chasebrown____ pic.twitter.com/bHSDvUqLmr
— NFL Canada (@NFLCanada) October 6, 2024
If Moss misses Week 6 (and beyond), we could see Brown thrust into a very lucrative role for a Bengals team averaging the fourth-most points per game this season.
There’s reason to believe he’ll find success with that increased opportunity given how he’s performed through five games. Per PlayerProfiler, Brown is currently third in true yards per carry (6.2) and fourth in juke rate (36.1%).
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
The tight-end landscape is a wasteland these days unless you’re rostering a guy like Ferguson. With Brandin Cooks out in Week 5, Ferguson saw his highest snap share (75%) and route participation rate (87%). That translated to six catches for 70 yards on seven targets.
Ferguson has now caught 6+ balls in each of his last three games. Additionally, the Cowboys continue to pass at one of the highest rates in the league. Through five games, they’re averaging the second-most pass attempts per game (38.8). Seriously, this guy looks a lot like Travis Kelce, and it’s not just because he’s wearing No. 87.
Despite not scoring a touchdown yet this season, Ferguson still sits at TE5 on a points-per-game basis (11.2 PPR points). So far, just one of his 30 targets has come in the red zone (3%). Last season, 24.5% of Ferguson’s targets came in the red zone.
With a target share of 20.4%, a target rate of 29.5%, and expected positive touchdown regression coming, Ferguson is looking like a top-5 tight end for the remainder of the season.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
All Tracy needed was an opportunity. He got that opportunity in Week 5 and didn’t disappoint. He turned 18 carries into 129 yards. The converted college wide receiver looked every bit like an NFL running back vs. Seattle filling in for the injured Devin Singletary.
Ladies and gents, Tyrone Tracy Jr. ‼️ pic.twitter.com/aKVXMH3tAs
— New York Giants (@Giants) October 8, 2024
Even if Singletary returns in Week 6, it’s hard to imagine head coach Brian Daboll not giving the rookie more work after the success he had in Week 5. Check this out:
Tyrone Tracy is the only RB in the NFL to gain positive yardage on every single run in a game with 15+ rush attempts during the 2024 season. https://t.co/0fGSukbhWX
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 7, 2024
Another plus for Tracy is that the Giants offense looks fairly competent with Daboll calling plays this season. That’s led to four straight competitive games, which will lead to plenty of opportunities for the running backs. Expect Tracy to maintain a meaningful role on the Giants offense regardless of Singletary.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a bye in Week 6, but that doesn’t stop Worthy from being one of the biggest risers of the week. The production was modest in Week 5, but don’t let that fool you. Worthy was a huge part of the Chiefs' game plan in their first full game without Rashee Rice.
Xavier Worthy led the Chiefs in first-read targets for the first time all year, per @FantasyPtsData.
Kansas City's Week 5 first-read target rates:
27% - Worthy
23% - Travis Kelce
18% - JuJu Smith-Schuster
18% - Mecole Hardman
9% - Noah Gray
5% - Jody Fortson— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 8, 2024
First-read targets tend to equal fantasy points in the long run. Right now, it’s Worthy, Travis Kelce, and maybe JuJu Smith-Schuster. And the last time we checked, Patrick Mahomes remains the quarterback. This passing offense will continue to funnel through Worthy and Kelce for the foreseeable future.
Worthy’s also been over an 80% route participation rate in each of the last two weeks without Rice. He saw a season-high six targets in Week 5 and drew a pass interference on a deep bomb that could have easily gone for 50+ yards and a touchdown. The production is coming.
Other Risers: Jalen Tolbert, Tucker Kraft, Dare Ogunbowale, Darnell Mooney, Blake Corum, Brian Thomas Jr.
Week 6 Fantasy Football Fallers
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Robinson (knee) was questionable to play in Week 5 but was able to give it a go. However, he played just 34% of the snaps and handled just 32% of the RB opportunities. Austin Ekeler (concussion) returned and played 50% of the snaps, while Jeremy McNichols worked in a bit, too, playing on 22% of the snaps.
Following their Week 5 blowout win over the Browns, head coach Dan Quinn said the team would continue monitoring BRJ’s knee going forward.
Quinn said RB Brian Robinson came out of the game "well." He didn't have a carry in the second half, which Quinn said was "a coaching decision" as they monitor his knee.
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) October 7, 2024
Robinson has looked pretty good so far this season, but with Ekeler back and McNichols playing well, the Commanders might look to scale back his workload over the next few weeks. That’s an even bigger risk considering their bye week doesn’t come until Week 14.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickens played a season-low 59% of the snaps in Week 5. Per Nate Jahnke, he played just one snap in 12 personnel. After the game, head coach Mike Tomlin had this to say about Pickens’ playing time:
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin on George Pickens playing just 59% of offensive snaps:
“We just wanted to kind of minimize his reps in an effort to get more productivity… He wasn’t less of a focal point, in terms of our intentions of what we were wanting to do offensively, but we did… pic.twitter.com/31SSwFNzhV
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 7, 2024
He’s a good player who commands targets when he’s on the field. The problem for Pickens (whether right or wrong) is that he’s dealing with not only Arthur Smith’s shenanigans but also now Tomlin’s wrath. If he’s “in the doghouse” whenever he’s not giving full effort, that’s not great for his fantasy value given that’s been one of the knocks on him in the past.
We could see a squeaky wheel narrative in Week 6 when the Steelers take on the Raiders in Las Vegas, but this is a situation to monitor nonetheless.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kirk, like Pickens, saw a season-low snap share in Week 5 (just 53%). This came with Evan Engram (hamstring) still sidelined. He also had a season-low route participation of 68% in a game that was mostly competitive.
One of the reasons for Kirk’s lack of playing time and production is the ascension of rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. BTJ has averaged 8.7 targets per game in his last three games. He’s running a diverse route tree and is being rewarded with his ability to separate down the field.
Last season, Kirk averaged 13.8 yards per reception. This season, that number has dipped to just 12.2, which is his lowest mark since the 2019 season. His yards per route run (1.4) is also way down from the 2023 season (2.12).
Engram could return in Week 6, which would muddy the waters even more for Kirk. In their only game together this season, Kirk caught just one pass for 30 yards on four targets. Now is the time to sell to someone who looks at his box score and sees a season-high 88 yards in Week 5.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
This one will surely come back to bite us as Bijan and the Falcons take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 6. But that’s alright, we’re going to call it as it is. Robinson has been dreadful each of the last two weeks and his opportunity share is shrinking at the expense of Tyler Allgeier.
In Week 5, Robinson had an RB opportunity share of 62.5% and a snap share of 67%. In Week 4, it was a 52.4% RB opportunity share and a 64% snap share. Compare those numbers to the first three weeks of the season when he averaged a 75% RB opportunity share and an 82% snap share.
Head coach Raheem Morris has mentioned game flow and hot hand as two reasons why Allgeier has played more in each of the last two games. In reality, Allgeier has earned his opportunities through highly efficient running this season.
Per PlayerProfiler, he’s fifth among running backs in true yards per carry (6.0), sixth in juke rate (33.3%), and 11th in yards per touch (5.7). In comparison, Robinson is just 34th in yards per carry, and 23rd in both juke rate and yards per touch.
Robinson’s target share is another thing that’s dropped in 2024. As a rookie, he commanded a 17.2% target share. So far this season, that number sits at just 11.4%. That’s likely due to how the Falcons utilize their two new receivers, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III. In 2023, Robinson only had Drake London and Kyle Pitts to fend off.
We don’t recommend sitting Robinson in Week 6 vs. the Panthers, but maybe see what his trade market looks like after a big game.
Other Fallers: Jerome Ford, Jauan Jennings, Travis Etienne Jr.
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