November 3, 2016

Harris Yudin analyzes fantasy football buy low and sell high candidates for Week 9 of the 2016 NFL season. These risers and fallers are trade candidates for fantasy owners.

The waiver wire isn't the only place to change the course of your team. The right trade can make or break your season. The key is to buy low on cold players and sell overachieving players whose values have skyrocketed.

While this is a well-known method, some owners still tend to overreact to a small sample size, so it's important to take advantage of those opportunities.

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Fantasy Football Buy Low Candidates

Philip Rivers (QB, SD)

Rivers had a tough go of it in Week 8, completing 20-of-47 passes for 267 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions against a strong Denver defense. He hasn’t posted 20 fantasy points in any of his last three matchups, but two of those were against the top-rated Broncos. The veteran quarterback was averaging 293.8 yards with 11 total touchdowns and three picks heading into his first meeting with Denver.

Rivers still has a bye coming up in Week 11, but his schedule — particularly in the fantasy playoffs — is enticing. The Chargers will face the Buccaneers, Panthers and Raiders in Weeks 14-16, making Rivers a strong QB1 play for the most important part of the season. Fantasy owners who have a playoff spot all but locked up could look to acquire the veteran signal-caller for later use.

Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)

Hyde was averaging 71.5 yards rushing with six touchdowns before going down with a shoulder injury in Week 6. Neither Mike Davis nor Shaun Draughn showed any bit of effectiveness in Hyde’s absence, so his job at the top of the running back depth chart is not remotely in question.

Six of San Francisco’s next eight opponents allow more than 100 yards rushing per game, and when Hyde plays, he should account for just about all of those yards for his team. Even if he doesn’t return in Week 9 against a penetrable Saints defense, the upcoming schedule is favorable. When healthy, Hyde is a reliable workhorse who can make a large impact on a fantasy team— and he can be had at something of a bargain right now.

Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)

Watkins hasn’t played since Week 2 against the Jets, when he suffered a foot injury and landed on the IR. He will not be back anytime soon, but is eligible to play for the Bills in Week 12, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. In Weeks 14-16, the Bills have meetings with the Steelers, Browns and Dolphins, respectively.

In Watkins’ absence, no Bills player has taken the reigns as the No. 1 target— Robert Woods leads the team with 290 yards, Marquise Goodwin has a team-high three touchdowns. Buffalo desperately needs Watkins, and Tyrod Taylor will likely lean heavily on him upon his return. If the Watkins’ owner is looking to make a playoff push, you might be able to take him off their hands at a discount.

Fantasy Football Sell High Candidates

Derek Carr (QB, OAK)

Carr is coming off a career game in which he threw for 513 yards and tossed four touchdown passes against the Buccaneers. The 25-year-old has built off of his first two seasons, accumulating 2,231 yards, 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions through Oakland’s first eight games in 2016. He has posted a passer rating of at least 80 in seven of his eight starts, including three contests with a rating above 100. The Raiders’ signal-caller should be a reliable fantasy QB for years to come.

However, Carr is not likely to be in fantasy lineups over the next two weeks, as he faces off with Denver in Week 9 and then heads into a bye. Oakland will also draw Houston, Buffalo and Kansas City later this season, and while Indianapolis offers a very appealing matchup in Week 16, it will be very difficult to make it to that point with Carr leading the way. Unless the rest of your team is completely loaded, it’s not worth holding onto Carr in most leagues— especially given his inflated value.

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)

Murray has been one of the more productive backs this season, totaling 756 yards through Tennessee’s first eight games. Clearly the Eagles misused him last season, and his 2014 production was not a fluke. That said, in that 2014 campaign, he eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in each of his first eight games, but just three times in his final seven. His yards per carry fell with each month that season, and he appears to be on a similar path this year (6.0 in September, 4.3 in October). Plus, Murray could concede some of his touches going forward to rookie Derrick Henry, who enjoyed a breakout game in Week 8, when he ran for 60 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

Tennessee’s schedule is not the most inviting, with several teams that are more vulnerable to the pass than the run— most notably the Packers, who have yielded 74.4 yards rushing per game and just two touchdowns on the ground all season. Most importantly, Tennessee has a bye in Week 13, which is typically the final week of the fantasy regular season, meaning a lot of playoff berths will be on the line. You don’t want your No. 1 running back on bye when you’re trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs, and the potential return for Murray could be enormous.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

Crowder posted career-highs in targets (13) and receptions (nine) in Week 8, finishing with 107 yards and a touchdown. It was his second consecutive 100-yard game after having just one across his first 22 career games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins threw the ball 56 times — his own career-high — in Washington’s overtime tie with the Bengals. As a a result, Jordan Reed also saw a season-high 13 targets, while DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis were all targeted at least five times, as well. The Redskins have so many offensive weapons that double-digit targets simply won’t present themselves for Crowder on a weekly basis. Additionally, with two strong tight ends, red zone looks could be scarce going forward. Finally, Rob Kelley, who could be emerging as Washington’s No. 1 back, is more of a pass-catching threat than Matt Jones.

The Redskins will follow up a Week 9 bye with a meeting with the Vikings, and not until Week 15 do they have a matchup that is favorable for their receivers. Crowder is a talented wideout, but the volume will likely decrease from here on out, so it’s best to cash in his recent production for a solid value.