RADIO
Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 8 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.
Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 8 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll be taking a look at CJ Abrams, Kris Bubic, Oneil Cruz, and Jack Flaherty.
Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will choose a few players who have performed well lately and a few who have not, and I will analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.
This week will be another abbreviated version of the series, but each player has already left a fantasy mark, some positive and some with blemishes. Let's take a closer look to decide if their performance trends will continue!
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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Riser
All stats are current as of Monday morning, May 19, 2025.
CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals (SS)
.312/.368/.574 Slash Line, 8 HRs, 18 RBI, 9 SBs
CJ Abrams came into 2025 as a power/speed fantasy threat. However, he’s done it all so far this season, slashing .312/.368/.574 with eight HR and nine stolen bases. Should fantasy managers expect him to be such a well-rounded roto contributor?
The main thing that stands out behind Abrams' high batting average is his BABIP. Abrams owns a modest .289 career BABIP considering his speed, but his .350 mark this season is much higher. Digging deeper, there is evidence to explain his BABIP jump.
Abrams has crushed the ball this season with a 91.2 mph average exit velocity and a 45.8% hard-hit rate. He is swinging the bat harder and has significantly increased his barrel rate from 6.9% in 2024 to 10.3%.
CJ Abrams has two on the day and 8 on the year. Playing like the best SS in the league right now. pic.twitter.com/aSiLD49qI4
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) May 18, 2025
The main driver of Abrams' increased batting average seems to be his increased exit velocity, so the big question is, can he continue to hit the ball harder than he ever has? While there is nothing to suggest otherwise, I am still skeptical, given how he impacted the ball previously in his career. He may have worked on his swing this offseason, but it is difficult to say without an explicit interview from Abrams.
At a minimum, I think Abrams will continue to provide fantasy value as he has throughout his career, providing around 20 HRs and at least 30 SBs. I would be surprised if he finished the season with a batting average above .300, but anything above .250 would be a win for fantasy managers.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Riser
All stats are current as of Monday morning, May 19, 2025.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
4-2, 1.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 25.6% Strikeout Rate, 54 1/3 IP
Several years ago, Kris Bubic came onto the fantasy scene as part of a crop of young Royals pitchers. Things didn’t pan out for him as a starter, but he succeeded out of the bullpen in 2024. He has moved back to the rotation for 2025 and has carried his success with him. Should fantasy managers expect it to continue?
Signs under the hood are encouraging. Bubic’s Statcat page is almost entirely red. He has developed a true four-pitch mix now that he is in a starting role, and all of his pitches have been effective.
Kris Bubic is 5th in MLB this season with a 1.69 ERA (min. 35 IP) 🔒@markdero7 breaks down how the @Royals LHP has diversified his pitch mix in 2025 leading to success. #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/xQ6CXAvyaz
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 9, 2025
Bubic has done an excellent job avoiding hard contact, which had been a problem for him prior to last season. This has led to a respectable .294 BABIP and a 0.50 HR/FB rate. His avoidance of blow-up contact has allowed him to pitch deep into games, as he is averaging 6 IP/GS.
He has generated an impressive 14.8% swinging-strike rate despite not having overpowering stuff. His changeup has been his best swing-and-miss pitch, at 20.7%. It has helped set up his fastball, which sits at 92.3 mph but has gotten an impressive 15.4% swinging-strike rate.
It is unreasonable to expect a 1.66 ERA from any starter, but Bubic has strong underlying numbers. His 3.16 xERA and 3.46 SIERA are solid, and I would expect him to continue to be a fantasy contributor, even if he does regress towards his expected metrics.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Faller
All stats are current as of Monday morning, May 19, 2025.
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (SS, OF)
.223/.349/.432 Slash Line, 8 HRs, 18 RBI, 16 SBs
Oneil Cruz has mostly provided what fantasy managers were expecting overall this season, hitting eight HRs with 16 SBs. However, his .223 batting average is low even for his standards, and he has hit just .083 with 16 strikeouts in his last seven games. Are Cruz's counting stats worth it with such a low batting average?
Strikeouts have always been an issue in Cruz's game, so it isn't that surprising to see a dip in his batting average. Cruz owns a career 31.5% strikeout rate, but his 61.5% strikeout rate in the last seven games is very poor and leaves little room for success.
Cruz has dealt with back soreness for the last week or so, which may have contributed to his recent stretch. Baseball is also inherently a streaky game. The good news is that Cruz has impacted the ball as he always has, with an average exit velocity and a hard-hit rate both in the top 100th percentile of baseball.
Cruz is tough to evaluate because fantasy managers were likely aware of this potential outcome before drafting him. He is an incredible athlete with extreme power and speed, but strikeouts have always been a huge liability.
He won't strike out two-thirds of the time forever, so fantasy managers may just need to grit their teeth through his rough stretch. Hopefully, fantasy managers who drafted him in roto leagues accounted for a potentially low batting average by drafting supporting players around him accordingly.
Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Faller
All stats are current as of Monday morning, May 19, 2025.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
2-5, 4.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 28.9% Strikeout Rate, 46 2/3 IP
Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent throughout his career, but 2024 was one of his best. Unfortunately, his success has not carried over to 2025. What should fantasy managers make of him?
The good news is that his strikeouts are up where they have been, and his walk rate is in check. Walks have been an issue for Flaherty in the past, but his current 7.7% walk rate is below his 8.5% career average.
Jack Flaherty, Vicious 78mph Knuckle Curve. 😤 pic.twitter.com/moW75GaeCe
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 16, 2025
The bad news is that he has given up a lot of hard contact in the air. Flaherty’s 90.3 mph average exit velocity is the highest of his career, as is his 16-degree launch angle. This combination has not been a winning recipe. He has allowed more fly balls than ever with a 19.2% HR/FB rate and a bloated 1.93 HR/9 rate.
Flaherty still has some solid factors, but the long ball has derailed his season. He has allowed too much hard contact in the air, and it has come back to bite him. This is particularly discouraging, as half of his home runs have come in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.
Flaherty's good attributes have helped keep his peripherals relatively in check, so there may be an opportunity for things to turn around if he can keep the ball out of the air. Further, his 3.24 SIERA suggests that his batted-ball profile may not be as big of a problem as it seems.
His next scheduled start is at the Cardinals, who, as a team, are 19th in total home runs. Hopeful fantasy managers may wait a bit more to see if Flaherty can rectify his long-ball issues before deciding to move on, particularly in points leagues.
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