Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Jameis Winston, Rico Dowdle, Jerry Jeudy, Parker Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

December 4, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 14 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Jameis Winston, Rico Dowdle, Jerry Jeudy, Parker Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.

Week 13 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the 13th week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 13. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Jameis Winston - QB, Cleveland Browns

Week 13 stats: 34-of-58 for 497 yards and four touchdowns, three interceptions

Jameis Winston threw six touchdown passes on Monday night. The problem was that two of those went to the Broncos.

But even with the two pick-sixes, Winston finished as the overall fantasy QB1 after throwing for almost 500 yards, coming up just three yards shy of the mark while throwing four touchdown passes to his Browns teammates.

This was classic Jameis, the NFL's modern gunslinger. Big plays. Big turnovers. When you think about what the ultimate example of the Jameis Winston experience is, this game is it.

Jameis Winston after throwing two pick-sixes on Monday night:

"I know I’m better than this. I’m praying for the Lord to deliver me from pick-sixes."

pic.twitter.com/7G0X4DgkeP

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 3, 2024

But don't expect Winston to suddenly be a top fantasy quarterback. Sure, he's gone over 300 yards in three of his five starts, but he's also now thrown seven interceptions in the past four games.

Winston has three top-10 fantasy finishes this season, so I'm not saying he's unrosterable. I just think he's more likely to play closer to his floor than his ceiling most weeks. He's a mid-range QB2 going forward.

Verdict: Fiction

Rico Dowdle - RB, Dallas Cowboys

Week 13 stats: 22 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown, three catches for 11 yards - overall RB5

We've seen a jump in Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle's usage over the past two games. On Nov. 24 against the Commanders, Dowdle had 19 carries, finishing with 86 rushing yards, just one shy of his previous best mark of the season.

Then on Thanksgiving Day against the Giants, Dowdle had his breakout game, toting the rock 22 times for 112 yards and a touchdown in a 27-20 Dallas win.

This recent uptick in touches has Dowdle's fantasy stock on the rise, but last week was also the first time all season that Dowdle recorded a rushing touchdown. He does have three receiving scores, but running backs need to score on the ground, right?

(That's an oversimplification, but Dowdle's not a receiving-first back. He can't rely on receiving touchdowns to consistently boost his value like some other players can.)

I like where things are going with Dowdle, but he's still just an RB2/RB3 borderline guy.

Verdict: Fiction, but he's on the upswing

Jerry Jeudy - WR, Cleveland Browns

Week 13 stats: nine receptions for 235 yards and one touchdown - overall WR1

Uhh, what?

Jerry Jeudy delivered one of the all-time great revenge games on Monday night, going off for 235 receiving yards on nine catches. It was a dominant performance from the former Alabama star, though it wasn't enough to overcome a pair of Jameis Winston pick-sixes as the Browns lost 41-32.

Despite the loss, Jerry Jeudy put up a historic performance on Monday Night Football 👏

His 235 receiving yards are the most for an NFL player against his former team. pic.twitter.com/qtRPa2gLFQ

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 3, 2024

Now, let's get some context in here as far as projecting forward goes. Jeudy is not going to top 200 yards again next week against the Steelers. He likely won't surpass the mark again.

Still, Jeudy's last five games have been really good. He's finished with 79, 73, 142, 85, and 235 yards in those contests and has established himself as Cleveland's best receiver.

At this point, I'd call Jeudy a high-upside WR2. You should be starting him every week in the vast majority of leagues.

Verdict: Fact (I mean, not the 200 yards part, but the expanded role and importance going forward part)

Parker Washington - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 13 stats: six receptions for 103 yards and one touchdown - overall WR5

The Jaguars are without both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, as both are on IR. Brian Thomas Jr. continues to play well as the team's No. 1 receiver, but we got a surprise this week with who else emerged as a key player: Parker Washington.

Parker Washington double move comeback. pic.twitter.com/1GBC4SttAg

— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) December 1, 2024

Washington responded to the increased role in a major way, as he caught six of his 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. He added a two-point conversion as well and had a shot at another score due to another end-zone target.

It'd be nice to believe this is a sign of something, but I'm not ready to trust him. This was his first game of the year with over 50 receiving yards. He's had five games in which he wasn't even targeted.

Maybe Washington will continue to play well, but with uncertainty at quarterback with Trevor Lawrence concussed and a spotty track record for the second-year receiver, I'm not buying this yet.

Verdict: Fiction

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - WR, Tennessee Titans

Week 13 stats: three catches for 61 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR8

Every week, it seems like Tennessee Titans wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is finding his way into the end zone, but fantasy managers have been slow to add him during this span. He's still rostered in only around 20% of fantasy leagues.

And look, I get it. Touchdowns are hard to predict. Guys who score a lot but who do so on incredibly low volume are major fantasy risks. But at some point, we have to just accept that we live in a world where Westbrook-Ikhine is a touchdown-scoring machine.

Against the Commanders, NWI caught a pair of touchdowns, finishing with three catches for 61 yards on eight targets. It was his most targets of the season, which is an encouraging fact. Will Levis is working hard to get the ball to Westbrook-Ikhine.

Since the bye week, Westbrook-Ikhine has failed to find the end zone just one time. He has surpassed 48 yards in four of the past five games.

Whatever's going on in Tennessee, I think it's mostly for real, though I'd like to see the rise in targets continue another week before I call him a must-start.

Verdict: Fact, mostly

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