Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar: Buying and Selling the Latest Offseason News for Fantasy Baseball

January 18, 2023

Our Ben Rosener takes a look at the fantasy baseball impact of the Boston Red Sox reportedly expressing interest in free agents Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar ahead of the upcoming 2023 season.

Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts this Spring.

The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues this Spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.

So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with a bit of free agent news pertaining to the Boston Red Sox.

Selling For Fantasy Baseball

The Red Sox Reportedly Being Interested In Both Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar

According to an article from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Red Sox are reportedly interested in both free agent infielders. Nightengale wrote the following in an article published on Sunday:

“The Red Sox, to compensate for the loss of Story, has expressed interest in free-agent shortstop Elvis Andrus and free agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar.”

The reality is that neither Andrus nor Profar are likely to replace the fantasy or real-life production Boston lost when Xander Bogaerts signed with the San Diego Padres and Trevor Story was sidelined for part of the season after recently having elbow surgery.

And while either Andrus or Profar could be solid fantasy contributors in a vacuum, without Bogaerts, Story, and J.D. Martinez, the Red Sox’s lineup isn’t quite as elite as it has been in recent years. As such, it isn’t necessarily in the position to raise the fantasy prospects of either player much in the way that a new addition might find more success in Houston or Los Angeles.

Fantasy managers are probably better off looking elsewhere for infield options if either player signs in Boston.

While Andrus enjoyed his best season in years in 2022, both in terms of real-life baseball and fantasy baseball, there’s probably some regression.

Overall, the infielder hit .249 with a .303 on-base percentage, 17 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 577 plate appearances. He only contributed 20 barrels on the season though, good for just a 4.5% barrel rate.

For reference, he’s one of just seven players in the last three full seasons – and the only player since the start of the 2020 campaign – to hit at least 17 home runs in a season with a barrel rate south of 5.0%. It seems unlikely to happen again in 2023 if Andrus’ barrel rate remains similar. The 34-year-old also, rather unfortunately, saw each of his wOBA (.310), xwOBA (.293), and xwOBAcon (.316) hover around the .300 mark while registering just a 34.8% hard-hit rate that finished in the 22^nd percentile.

And while the stolen base may stay at a similar rate thanks to the introduction of larger bases, it is worth noting that all but six of Andrus’ steals in 2022 came after a late-season move to the Chicago White Sox. Prior to stealing 12 bases down the stretch with Chicago, he had logged just 21 since the start of the 2020 season. He also finished in the 22^nd percentile in Statcast’s sprint speed metric this past year.

Switching gears to Profar, the former Padres player hit .243 last season for San Diego, logging a .331 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and five stolen bases in 658 plate appearances. Seeing mostly all of his time in left field, Profar once again logged a strikeout rate on the small side of things, with a 15.7% number. He also finished in the 79^th percentile league-wide in both chase rate and whiff rate.

And while his ability to make plenty of contact was a good thing, the contact wasn’t always quality contact. The former Padres infielder logged reasonably similar metrics to Andrus both in terms of his barrel rate (4.0%), wOBA (.320), xwOBAcon (.323), and hard-hit rate (34.3%).

Not ideal.

Profar does bring a number of things to the table that helps, to a degree, offset the lack of hard contact. Most notable among them – at least in leagues where the on-base percentage is part of the scoring – is a walk rate that has finished in double digits in each of the last two years and hasn’t dipped below 9.1% in any of the last six full seasons. He also has the ability to play around the diamond, giving him potential fantasy versatility after seeing time only in left field and as a designated hitter last season.

Still, like with Andrus, fantasy managers are probably better off looking elsewhere for infield options.

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