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The top main-slate daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 24, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With games scattered throughout the day, we're down to an eight-game main slate. Today's matchups feature no excess of top-line pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/24/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. OAK ($10,100 DK, $10,900 FD)
Bryce Miller's MLB career is just four starts deep, but he's already the most premium pitching option on today's main slate. Through 25 1/3 innings pitched, Miller sports a phenomenal 1.42 ERA, 1.79 FIP, and 0.51 WHIP. There's certainly room for regression, but even his advanced numbers look strong -- 2.82 xERA, .265 xwOBA, and .216 xBA. Miller also carries an above-average 25% strikeout rate alongside an outstanding 2.3% walk rate. His minor-league numbers suggest an even higher strikeout ceiling may still materialize.
Regardless of whether you believe in Miller's sample size, the matchup is too good to pass up. Oakland's offense scores just 3.6 runs per game. They own a terrible .648 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including a .136 ISO, 86 wRC+, and a league-high 26.3% strikeout rate. Between striking out a ton and not scoring runs, it's as good a matchup as Miller could hope for.
I hesitate to call Miller a "safe" play, but he does give me the most peace of mind. Pitching options are thin on this slate, and his path to being the day's top pitcher is the clearest. Anticipate chalk and look to get different elsewhere in your lineup.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. COL ($8,300 DK, $8,900 FD)
Maybe it's stubbornness, but I'm not ready to give up on last year's NL Cy Young winner. It's been a rough campaign for Alcantara thus far, carrying a 4.21 xERA through nine starts. That includes some encouraging numbers, like a 6.1% barrel rate, 33.6% chase rate, and a career-best 28.2% whiff rate.
While acknowledging that Alcantara has underperformed, he has also experienced some bad luck, as represented by his 59.1% left on-base percentage. In any event, the sample size is small enough to keep stock in what Alcantara did in 2022 -- 2.92 xERA, 3.29 xFIP, .267 xwOBA, and 5.3% barrel rate.
Alcantara's greatest appeal is that he's a workhorse. Last season, he averaged 7.1 innings per start. That figure has dropped to 6.3 innings per outing in 2023, but that's more a result of the damage he's accrued than an inability to pitch deep. Alcantara's 22.6% strikeout rate is just a hair above the league average, though the tradeoff is worthwhile when he is capable of tossing a complete game any time out. If we can get seven-plus innings from Alcantara today, then he will (in all likelihood) pay off his affordable price tag.
Colorado's offense is nothing special, scoring 4.3 runs per game on the season. That includes a middling .730 OPS against right-handed pitching, alongside a weak .144 ISO and 85 wRC+. Their biggest offensive threat is the fact that they play at Coors Field. The environment certainly won't help Alcantara, but as a groundball pitcher, he is the exact type of arm that can neutralize the park's effect. If anything, I hope the idea of Coors is enough to suppress Alcantara's ownership.
Alcantara is a risky play in this spot, but he also might be the pitcher you had to have to take down a GPP. For his discounted price, that's a worthwhile gamble.
Also consider: Kodai Senga, Tony Gonsolin, James Paxton
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Christopher Morel – 2B/OF, CHC vs. Kodai Senga ($4,900 DK, $4,600 FD)
It may qualify for malpractice if I don't highlight Morel at this point. He's homered in five consecutive games entering Wednesday, including nine home runs through 12 games since being promoted from Triple-A Iowa. Altogether, Morel is slashing .367/.404/.980. Eventually, he will come down to Earth, but Morel remains a great player to roster in the meantime.
Christopher Morel is unreal 🤯
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 24, 2023
▫️ 5 straight games with a home run
▫️ 9 home runs in 12 games this season
(via @Cubs)pic.twitter.com/mD1FPu0TWM
Kodai Senga isn't the most vulnerable pitcher on this slate, but he has been touched up some during his brief time in the majors. Specifically, right-handed hitters have found success against Senga, carrying a .400 slugging percentage and .325 wOBA. Regardless, this pick has more to do with how hot Morel is than whoever takes the mound for the Mets.
Ryan Mountcastle – 1B, BAL vs. Nestor Cortes ($4,600 DK, $3,200 FD)
Mountcastle is slumping, carrying a .237/.267/.459 slash line with 10 home runs. His metrics suggest he's still hitting the ball exceptionally well. Mountcastle sports a phenomenal .564 xSLG, including a 16.1% barrel rate, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, .366 xwOBA, .278 xBA, and 45.6% hard-hit rate. In particular, he is crushing southpaw pitching this season, slugging .717 with a .383 ISO and six home runs.
Nestor Cortes does not look like the same pitcher he was in 2022. Right-handed hitters have found great success against him this season, carrying a .474 slugging percentage with a .346 wOBA and seven home runs against him. It's getting to the point where I'm comfortable picking on Cortes, and there's no better hitter to take advantage of his struggles than Mountcastle.
Matt Carpenter – 1B, SD vs. Trevor Williams ($2,900 DK, $2,600 FD)
Carpenter has been unable to recreate what he did for the Yankees last year, but he remains a worthwhile punt play today. He's hit only four home runs this season, but a 15.5% barrel rate suggests more are on the way. Looking back further, Carpenter slugged .684 against right-handed pitchers with a .389 ISO and 10 home runs in 2022.
Trevor Williams gets hit regardless of handedness, but the problem has been consistently worse with left-handed hitters. Lefties are slugging .479 against Williams this season, down from a .514 slugging percentage last season. Many San Diego bats look good today, but if you need a cheap one-off, you can do worse than Carpenter.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Juan Soto – OF, SD vs. Trevor Williams ($5,800 DK, $3,400 FD)
Building off Trevor Williams' struggles with left-handed hitters, Soto is a fantastic premium bat. He's rediscovered his power stroke recently, homering four times over the last 12 games. Soto's overall metrics suggest his recent slugging is here to stay, sporting a .509 xSLG, 57.5% hard-hit rate, .393 xwOBA, 92.6 mph average exit velocity, and 15% barrel rate. Ideal conditions for a Soto bomb on Wednesday.
Juan Soto homered. @JuanSoto25_ | #BringTheGold pic.twitter.com/c0IZSP0ws2
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) May 24, 2023
Teoscar Hernandez – OF, SEA vs. Ken Waldichuk ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)
Waldichuk is not fooling anyone, surrendering a .511 xSLG, .380 xwOBA, and 10.7% barrel rate. The problem extends to hitters on both sides of the plate, but it's worth noting that right-handed batters have launched 11 home runs off Waldichuk this season. That includes a .579 slugging percentage and .415 wOBA.
Hernandez's bat has been sluggish to start the year, but his prowess for hitting southpaws is well-established. Hernandez is slugging .523 against left-handed pitchers in 2023 and carries a .565 slugging percentage for his career alongside a .295 ISO and .372 wOBA. He carries plenty of upside at a very accessible price.
Edward Olivares – OF, KC vs. Matthew Boyd ($2,900 DK, $2,800 FD)
Olivares looks good as a cheap outfielder to punt with. He hasn't impressed much at the plate lately, but Olivares posted an impressive .565 slugging percentage, 152 wRC+, .387 wOBA, and .283 ISO against left-handed pitching last season. He's only gone deep three times this season, though Olivares' expected numbers tell us better times are ahead -- .460 xSLG, .345 xwOBA, and .275 xBA.
Right-handed batters are slugging .471 against Matthew Boyd this season, in line with his career mark of .472. He's never found much success against righties, and at 32 years old, I wouldn't anticipate Boyd suddenly evolving. Salvador Perez is another great pick to take Boyd deep, but if affordability is a necessity, look no further than Olivares.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Mariners vs. Ken Waldichuk
Targeting Oakland pitchers has become a routine for me. With Ken Waldichuk on the mound today, I see no reason to switch things up. He carries an awful 6.26 xERA, which includes a similarly poor .511 xSLG, .380 xwOBA, .267 xBA, and a 10.7% barrel rate.
It's unlikely Waldichuk makes it out of this matchup unscathed. Whenever he does exit, Oakland's league-worst bullpen (6.43 ERA) will take over. In total, the Athletics have surrendered a total of 358 runs this season, equaling 7.2 runs per game, and nearly two runs per game higher than the next highest total from the Royals (5.3 runs per game).
The Mariners' offense carries some unrealized offensive potential, but they're a scary lineup all the same. Seattle scores 4.5 runs per game and features a strong mix of bats at varying price points. Waldichuk has struggled against right-handed and left-handed hitters alike, so don't shy away from rostering Jarred Kelenic.
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, TeOscar Hernandez
Padres vs. Trevor Williams
Trevor Williams' struggles have persisted. He sports a 5.06 xERA, including a 4.96 xFIP, .348 xwOBA, .506 xSLG, .268 xBA, and 13.1% barrel rate. Williams has been lit up by batters of all handedness, so all Padres are playable. Additionally, Washington's bullpen brings a 4.40 ERA, the eighth-worst in the majors.
The Padres' offense has been a major disappointment, but this is a good spot for them to capitalize on. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. are premium bats that are starting to heat up, while midrange and cheaper options like Jake Cronenworth and Matt Carpenter make stacking accessible. San Diego collectively launched four home runs last night, which may be a sign that the momentum is shifting.
Favorite Plays: Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Matt Carpenter
Also Consider: Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles
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