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David Peralta is a 2023 fantasy baseball draft sleeper at OF, and is an ADP draft value. Target Peralta as an undervalued OF in fantasy baseball drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 475
CURRENT ADP: ~550 overall
ANALYSIS: David Peralta signing with the Dodgers was one of the more under-the-radar moves of the offseason. Now, with the injury to Gavin Lux forcing Chris Taylor to spend more time in the infield, it seems like Peralta may have a bit of a longer leash in the outfield in Los Angeles than many expected.
The team context is obviously the best he's had in his career, so it will be curious to see if this new approach carries over. In 2022, Peralta pulled the ball almost 7% more than in 2021 but he also increased his flyball rate from 26.2% to 41.1%. That's a massive jump.
Meanwhile, his HR/FB rate stayed under 10% at 8.8% but he did register a career-high 8.5% barrel rate. However, part of that could be due to park factors. Chase Field, where Peralta spent much of the season, ranks 22nd for left-handed pull power, while Tropicana Field, where Peralta finished the season, ranks 27th. Dodger Stadium, which he will call home in 2023, ranks 10th. In fact, Statcast says Peralta's 12 home runs last year would have been 19 if he had played all his games in Dodger Stadium.
The 50% groundball version of Peralta won't offer more than 10 home runs at Dodger Stadium but would likely come with a batting average around .270-.280, which had been his norm for much of his career. The newer pull-centric version of Peralta could pop 15-17 home runs this season but would likely hit .250-.260 since this version came with a career-high strikeout rate and nearly career-high O-Swing%.
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