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Daily Divide - Daily Fantasy Football Picks: NFL DFS Thanksgiving Slate


Daily Divide for DFS: Week 12, Thanksgiving Slate

Nathan and Matt each offer their DFS picks for the Thanksgiving slate. Even if you don’t load up on these games, it certainly adds to the fun of the day to have some DFS action going. We hope our arguments and debates provide enough information for you to make your own decisions.

Nathan: The Pilgrims loved DFS. 

Matt: We’re thankful you read and enjoy this weekly column!

You can follow the thankful Nathan Powell on twitter: @npowellff -- and the even more thankful Matt Rittle on twitter: @ffrittle.

 

Nathan's Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 12 Thanksgiving

QB: Aaron Rodgers vs CHI
The best quarterback in football hasn’t been perfect as of late, but the Chicago defense on Thanksgiving night may be the perfect cure. The Bears defense has been middle of the road against fantasy quarterbacks, allowing the 19th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. However, Aaron Rodgers has had nice success against the Bears over his career (The Batter versus pitcher of the NFL DFS is real) and he scored 24 points in week 1 of this year against the Bears. Additionally, the Packer have the highest team total of the slate with an implied team total of 27. Brett Favre and Bart Starr will be in the building for the retiring of Favre’s jersey, so #NarrativeStreet there.

StackingJames Jones is my favorite stacking option for Rodgers, but it is still a higher variance option as James Jones was putting up porous numbers before his solid outing last week.

Matt: The struggling Packers offense has found better footing in some recent weeks, and I doubt Chicago’s defense causes them too many issues...Hard to argue against this pick, though I may be wary of the price on some sites.

 

RB: Theo Riddick vs PHI
Theo Riddick has gone a bit under the radar this season as he is currently the RB19 in PPR fantasy football. Now, he isn’t much of a GPP play as he has only surpassed 15 PPR points once this season, but he is a nice piece for your Thanksgiving only cash games. Riddick has had under 7.80 PPR points just once this season. While I know that isn’t exactly setting the bar high, Riddick is cheap enough that you can almost fit all studs at your other positions.

Matt: I think you know what you’re getting here for the price, and he’s been solid more often than not. Great capsaver and game plan.

 

Golden Tate vs PHI
After a bit of a rocky start to the season for Tate and the Lions offense, it appear that they may be righting the ship a little bit. Tate has scored 10+ PPR points in each of the last 3 games and this week he faces an Eagles defense that was just shredded by Tampa Bay and has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. On a slate where the mid-low range of wide receivers get a bit ugly, I think Golden Tate is a very solid option, but like RIdick, the ceiling isn’t really there. But I have no problem paying for what I think is a nice floor on this slate.

Stacking: Even on this short slate, I can’t find myself to play Matthew Stafford in DFS.

Matt: Golden Tate hasn’t gone over eighty yards this season and has only one score. Racking up some catches on full PPR sites, however, may give him a nice floor where he serves as a needed capsaver. This is just about price and site scoring to me. 

Nathan:On sites that aren’t full PPR, I agree that Golden Tate isn’t nearly as attractive of a play.

 

TE: Greg Olsen at DAL There is only one tight end I trust in this slate to put up double digit points, and it is Greg Olsen. I think there is enough value at running back and wide receiver to spend up at both quarterback and tight end. Since the Panthers week 5 bye, the offense has definitely improved and Olsen has averaged 17.08 PPR points in those five games. This will be a close game and I think Cam will go to his favorite target early and often to make him worth the price of the most expensive tight end on Turkey day.

Stacking If I’m not going Rodgers, I’m going Cam. So Cam/Olsen are a viable stack once again.

Matt: I like it as a volume play, but the matchup isn’t great.

 

Matt’s Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 12 Thanksgiving

QB: Matthew Stafford vs PHI
Last weekend I suggested playing Matthew Stafford against the softest matchup he’s seen this year, and he came through finishing as QB8 on the weekend. This season Stafford continues to struggle in minus matchups, while being (at least) adequate in plus ones. Facing another plus matchup at home on Thanksgiving (the Eagles have allowed the 22nd most fantasy points to opposing QBs), I may like Stafford on a larger slate. On this short slate, though, Stafford figures to be a solid option.

Stacking: Stacking with Golden Tate or Calvin Johnson is discussed above and below, respectively.

Nathan: I know playing Stafford helps you do a little more at the other positions, but I just can’t do it. Especially when I can play Cam or Rodgers.

 

RB: Darren McFadden vs CAR
In the five games since his bye, Darren McFadden has had over 26 touches four times, turning those touches into three 100+ yard rushing days. He combined for 113 yards in a fourth game. Carolina may not be softest matchup for running backs, but teams with actual running backs have been able to score fantasy points against them. With QB Tony Romo back, playing at home on a short slate, I’ll take the high usage, high floor option in McFadden.

Nathan: Getting a back with guaranteed touches is important with this type of slate, and McFadden has that. If Josh Norman shuts down Dez Bryant, the Cowboys may have to try and win with the run despite not having the greatest matchup.

 

WR: Calvin Johnson vs PHI
Calvin Johnson has caught five to six passes for at least eight yards in each of the last five weeks. FootballOutsiders ranks the Eagles 32nd against team’s #1 WRs. That’s a measure I’m often nervous to trust, but may be a bit informative in this case. Rich Hribar was kind enough save me the trouble of sorting through Johnson’s Thanksgiving day history. In his weekly Rotoworld Worksheet he noted that “Calvin Johnson has scored in seven of eight career games on Thanksgiving, averaging 20.5 points per game.”

Stacking: As evident from my section, I like the spot Detroit is in this weekend.

Nathan: Calvin against CB Byron Maxwell? Good luck Byron. The only worry is the fact that Calvin just hasn’t been Calvin this year and he hasn’t scored 20+ PPR points in 4 weeks.

Matt: No, but he is averaging a 5.25-85-.25 line over the last four games, which speaks to a nice floor even without touchdowns.

 

TE: Brent Celek at DET
Greg Olsen has a tough a matchup, and Jason Witten hasn’t been great this season, especially relative to his price on sites. Not seeing see any great Thanksgiving tight end options, I’m looking to use this position to help save money for the rest of my lineup. Brent Celek has long been able to score fantasy points when used a receiver, and has quietly put up a combined 11-234 line over the last two weeks. With TE Zach Ertz (concussion) figuring to miss Thursday’s game, Celek should see a fair target volume in a plus tight end matchup.

Stacking: Detroit has been shutting down QBs of late, making the PHI QB an uninteresting play.

Nathan: Celek is fine. But I don’t think the floor or ceiling are very attractive with either Bradford or Sanchez.

 

Watch The Pricing, But We Also Like

Nathan likes: Cam Newton, Darren McFadden, Eddie Lacy (Gulp), James Jones, Marquess Wilson(if Alshon sits or projects to be limited after warm ups), Calvin Johnson, Richard Rodgers.

Matt likes: Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, Eddie Lacy (double Gulp), Packers WRs, Alshon Jeffery (if he plays), Richard Rodgers.

 

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