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Eli Grabanski looks at Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver D.J. Chark's value in dynasty leagues and analyzes how his fantasy football value could change in the upcoming 2020 season.
Are you ready for some football? If you are in a dynasty fantasy football league, you most certainly are!
The time between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is a prime opportunity for hardcore owners to evaluate their current team and prepare for their upcoming rookie drafts.
We've already looked at young players like Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Darren Waller, and Josh Allen. Today's article will evaluate Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver D.J. Chark. After a largely forgettable rookie season where Chark only caught 14 passes for 174 yards, he broke out last season with 73 catches for 1008 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. But the question is whether last year's D.J. Chark is here to stay or is he just another one-year wonder? Let's take a look!
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Profile
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College: Louisiana State University (LSU)
Age: 23
Height/Weight: 6'3'', 199 pounds
2018 NFL Draft: Round 2, Pick 61
The Gardner Minshew Effect
There's evidence that Minshew may have actually been a bit unlucky last year. Based on where Minshew's targets were thrown and how tight the defensive coverage was, he completed 5.2 percent fewer passes than he was expected to, which was the worst in the league. If he gets some positive regression in this regard, Chark has the potential for bigger numbers.
The other thing that bodes well for Chark, is how good Minshew is at throwing the deep ball. Last year, Minshew posted a 129.0 QB Rating on passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air which was the best in the NFL, and his 45.1% deep ball completion was the fifth-best in the league. Last year 25 of Chark's 117 targets were deep targets (21.3%), and the Minshew-Chark connection will get stronger with another year to develop chemistry.
In addition, Minshew's QB Rating was 52.5 points higher while running play-action, which was the highest gap in the league. However, the Jaguars failed to capitalize on this last year, having Minshew run play-action just 14.2 percent of the time, which was a league-low. We can expect this to change in Jay Gruden's offense, which will feature more play-action and be tailored more to Minshew's strengths.
Offensive Philosophy Changes
This past offseason the Jaguars fired their offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and hired former Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden to be their new offensive coordinator.
With Jay Gruden in the fold, the Jaguars will be running a West Coast offense that is primarily built around short and intermediate passes. And while Jay Gruden's West Coast offense is very similar to his brother Jon Gruden's, Jay's offense is much more willing to attack down the field than the traditional West Coast offense. Chark should have a great opportunity to put up yards in this system, much like DeSean Jackson in 2014 who had 56 receptions (95 targets) for 1159 receiving yards or AJ Green in 2013 where he had the best statistical season of his career with 98 receptions (178 targets) for 1426 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Let's look at how his top wideout performed each season.
We see earlier in Jay Gruden's playcalling career, his top receivers performed very well consistently finishing with over 1000 yards receiving. But since 2015, he's only coached one 1,000-yard receiver. This is due to a lack of premier talent at the position and clearly evident with the example of Terry McLaurin in 2019. In the five games that Gruden coached the Washington Redskins, McLaurin caught 23 passes (4.6 per game) on 38 targets (7.6 per game) for 408 yards (81.6 per game) and five touchdowns. Over the course of the season, this means that Gruden had McLaurin on pace for 74 catches on 122 targets for 1305 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. And considering Chark is another talented receiver, he is a good bet to put up 1,000 yards and six or more touchdowns in this offense.
Potential Jaguars Offseason Moves
At the surface level, many folks would assume that the Jaguars will make some moves at the wide receiver spot, especially with Keelan Cole no longer under contract and Marqise Lee being a prime salary-cap cut candidate. But considering their cap situation, it is highly unlikely that they get a top tier receiver via free agency. So unless the Jaguars end up drafting a player like Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, or another receiver from the class, they will only be bringing back Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley to compete with Chark for reps, allowing Chark a prime opportunity to feast again next season.
Conclusion
D.J. Chark has the elite athleticism to become a top receiver in the league with a 4.34-second 40-yard dash (98th percentile), 115.3-speed score (96th percentile), a 40-inch vertical, and a 129-inch broad jump. His burst and speed alone make him a tough match-up for any defensive back, but he also refined his route-running and developed more consistent hands, not dropping a single pass last year. In addition to his abilities, Chark will also have plenty of opportunities to succeed with improved offensive playcalling and a lack of competition for targets.
In a dynasty league, Chark is a firm hold and should only be traded for a top-three pick in rookie drafts if you are stacked at receiver and want a young running back like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, or D'Andre Swift.
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