Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Buy or Sell: Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 17


Today's piece covers a set of players who either should not be available on waivers or will return back there soon. Most of the earlier editions of this recurring buy or sell article have included several universally owned players whose values have been manipulated enough by early-season performances. Unfortunately, as we get deeper into the year, the regression fairies come to ruin every savvy owner's fun.

Nevertheless, there is nothing worse than seeing one of your guys continually underperform. However, if that is the case, eight times out-of-ten it is most prudent to hold on until they at least get hot to then sell. Contrarily, do not buy high, unless it is in your best interest to win now and that player fills a particular need.

Anyway, these buys and sells are where your focus should be for this upcoming week. Best of luck dealing.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Undervalued Players - Week 17

These players could be worth trying to add or acquire as long as you're not paying for preseason value. Ideally, they are just lying around on your wire and you can add them straight up or for a few extra FAAB dollars.

 

Brandon Workman - RP, BOS

47% owned

A few weeks back, when news broke regarding Nathan Eovaldi and his eventual return, the plan seemed to be to have him shift to closing. Today, Red Sox manager stated that Brandon Workman is their closer until further notice. He mentioned how his bullpen's roles have become more defined over the past few weeks. Workman, to his credit, is having the best season of his career and is deserving of this honor.

His 1.84 ERA, 35 percent strikeout rate and .103 average against are stellar. However, there is a regression coming. A .171 BABIP and 17 percent walk rate are staring him in the face and will strike at an unfortunate time for anyone who picks him up. Nevertheless, he is the closer on the Boston Red Sox (even if only temporarily). Workman is still available in most leagues and is worthy of a roster spot.

 

Khris Davis - OF, OAK

93% owned

There is no one player in baseball more consistent than Khris Davis. A .247 average and 40-plus home runs are a main-stay with Oakland's power-righty. Davis started the year off on fire but has since cooled down significantly. Unfortunate hip and hand injuries have stunted this season's progress, but it is not too late for a turnaround.

There are still two months of baseball to play. Davis is talented enough to make up the gap between his current performance and his expected performance. His xBA and xSLG are below his current marks and should regress soon.

 

Clint Frazier - OF, NYY

11% owned

Clint Frazier remains a trade chip for the Yankees with the deadline swiftly approaching. If moved, he will likely have everyday playtime and an OF spot locked up for the first time in his career. The removed pressures of performing for short stints in the MLB could really ease Frazier and allow him to play his game. He is a former top prospect who has had a stellar season at the plate this year.

Despite several noted defensive lapses, his bat is good enough to play in almost any other lineup. Frazier produced a .283 average, 11 home runs, and .348 wOBA in 209 plate appearances this season with the Yankees. He will become a must-own player on most any other team if traded this month.

 

Travis Shaw - 2B, MIL

17% owned

Travis Shaw is back to being Travis Shaw...in Triple-A. Since his most recent demotion, Shaw is batting .295, with five home runs, 13 walks, and just 12 strikeouts. Albeit in a small sample (14 games), it is good to see that he is seemingly back from the wrist injury that hampered the first half of his 2019. The biggest issue in a path back towards MLB play-time is a crowded infield. Keston Hiura seems to have taken a stranglehold on the second base job that Shaw formerly held and Mike Moustakas is not moving from the hot corner.

All that is left is first base realistically and that is where things get interesting. Jesus Aguilar has had a turbulent 2019 as well and could be a candidate to get pushed out in favor of Shaw. With the trade deadline approaching, things should shake out in favor of Shaw somehow. He may even be traded (although unlikely). He's definitely more preferable for OBP leagues than others due to his elite walk rate.

 

Overvalued Players - Week 17

Overvalued does not always mean SELL. Players here are just showing enough red flags that warrant the overvalued tag and could even be dropped if they have not produced enough.

 

Yuli Gurriel - IF, HOU

82% owned

Not many major leaguers have been hotter than Yuli Gurriel over the past month. Honestly, "hot" might even be an understatement. Gurriel is demolishing the ball and rewarding anyone who picked him up/spiting those who dropped him. It's as if someone finally let him in on the balls being juiced. Regardless, he is not this good. Any player can get hot, Gurriel's streak is just lasting a little longer than normal, essentially making up for his early-season power-outage. His xSLG is nearly ten percentage points lower than his actual slugging percentage.

Gurriel is mostly valuable in points leagues and should remain so throughout the season due to his incredibly low strikeout rate. Owners in categories leagues might be disappointed with his ROS performance. There remains a possibility that he loses PT if/when Kyle Tucker comes up. I'd look to sell high, probably adding Gurriel in as a trade sweetener for a bigger piece.

 

Luke Jackson - RP, ATL

79% owned

Luke Jackson is an interesting fellow. Despite several shaky closing opportunities, he has managed to hold onto the closer role since earning it in late-April. With seven blown saves, there is a chance that Atlanta looks to the trade market for a steadier option. With the replacement risk, it is likely best to move off of Jackson if possible. His most recent blown save likely doesn't help his fantasy trade value, but there may be an owner in your league who sees the 17 saves and is desperate enough.

Jackson has incredible peripherals and holds a great 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The problems are his inflated WHIP and HR/FB rate which indicates that nearly a quarter!! of his flyballs leave the stadium.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




More Recent Articles

 

Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 15

Week 15 saw the game of the season in New Orleans, another statement win from the Baltimore Ravens, and rare back-to-back losses for the New England Patriots. It was quite a week, and generally a very high scoring and fun week for fantasy football as well. If you survived the first week of the fantasy... Read More


Week 15 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


WR/TE Leaderboards After The First Playoff Round - NFL Next Gen Stats

Things finally got serious. If you're here, it's only because one of two reasons: 1) you have followed the series all along and want to keep reading just so you don't feel bad with yourself, or 2) you won your first round of the fantasy playoffs and are still on the lookout for the smallest... Read More


Week 15 Warning Signs: Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Julio Jones

You made the playoffs. Awesome. Now you have even won your first game. That is even better. But now what? There are many players, some of whom performed in the first round, who may not be so fortunate this week. Whether it is a bad matchup or injuries to key players around them, this could... Read More


Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Sit Your Studs?

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


The Tape Tells All - Robby Anderson Fantasy Outlook

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson, who's shaken off a slow start to the 2019 season by going... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers, Fallers - Zach Ertz, Emmanuel Sanders, Robert Woods

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 15

The first week of the fantasy playoffs is in the books, and hopefully you're still writing another chapter in it. Week 14 was absolutely brutal from an injury perspective, with several big name players getting carted off the field and burying multitudes of fantasy teams in the process. Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley, Devante Parker, Alshon... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 15 Le'Veon Bell (flu) is back at practice and should return for TNF. Bilal Powell (ankle, flu) is likely... Read More


Week 14 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

In Week 14, the quarterback position was littered with surprises. Drew Brees dropped over 40 fantasy points on a 49ers Defense that's given up the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season and Jameis Winston hung 456 yards and 5 touchdowns on a Colts Defense that's been solid against the pass all year. Mitch... Read More


The Cut List - Players on the Chopping Block (Week 15)

This is your weekly list of players to drop. I will do my best to limit this list to injured players and players you might consider holding. If you roster pure handcuffs or backups, obviously you can let them go at any time. The players on this list will, ideally, be guys that aren't clearly... Read More


Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Week 15 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 15 is here and for those of you that won the first week of your fantasy playoffs, congratulations. If you had a bye week, good luck to you this week. Kicker lives still matter, and three different kickers had 15 or more points last week. Three different kickers outscored Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 15 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


Week 15 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

You have to love fantasy football. You have to, otherwise you would have given up by now. In a week that most likely represented the first matchup of the fantasy playoffs or a must-win in some form for the vast majority of players, we were treated to the following: Alvin Kamara netting three fantasy points,... Read More