X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Sanderson Farms Championship

Taylor Montgomery - PGA DFS Lineup Picks, Daily Fantasy Golf

Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) provides free PGA betting picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.

It has been a hot minute since we last put together a Breaking $100 article, but the Sanderson Farms Championship has changed that this week. It is the second event of the new season and fall swing, which brings with it both opportunities and challenges in the betting market. I have found it challenging to be consistently successful early in the season with the influx of data-stricken Korn Ferry Tour graduates making their PGA Tour debut.

I believe this new talent can provide the biggest edge in the DFS department versus the betting market, particularly the top 20/40 bets that we call our bread-and-butter bets. However, with change comes opportunity and I wrote an article reviewing all of the "Korn Ferry Fifty" which I will be leaning on in my DFS player pool. Additionally, with a lack of placement bets early in the season, two new sections have been added to the article.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Course Breakdown and Key Stats

The Country Club of Jackson, Par: 72, Yardage: 7,461, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: John Fought & Mike Gogel

As the weather cools around the majority of the northern states of the United States, the fall swing heads south to Mississippi where temperatures remain hot and scores even hotter. The worst winning score since 2016 was -18, making this your typical birdie-fest. Dial up the birdie or better percentages and Par 5 scoring metrics and you should be well on your way to identifying the likely candidates to contend with this week.

As is typical with most birdie-fests, a hot putter will go a long way to securing success for many teeing it up. The 25% of weighting assigned to putting is the most you will see me assign to that metric, as the regular season usually requires premier ball strikers to take home some metal, with putting usually carrying about 5-15% weighting.

Now that we have a high-level understanding of what the course requires this week, let's throw that out the window for this week's model. In order to get an understanding of the entire field, including the 40-odd KFT graduates, we are going to ramp up the L24 rounds of true strokes gained to 80%, which prorates each player's skill level to the strength of the field they have played in the last few weeks, giving Korn Ferry players a chance to shine in the model.

Below are the settings for the model:

  • Golfer power rankings are generated with stats (0%), OWGR (10%), and L24 strokes gained total (80%), course history (10%).

 

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, this week we are betting even more conservatively, risking $11.50 of our $100 to net $110 or more. This worked out really well for us last year, hitting four winners over 24 or so events, so let's not fix anything that is not broken.

Over the last year, favorites have been ruining the fun of those bettors who like to take chances on long-shots in the 70-1 range. Until that trend changes, we are going to continue placing bets on players most likely to hoist that beautiful brown chicken (this week's trophy).

Scott Stallings ($3.05 @ +3000 on DraftKings)

Scott Stallings has been playing sensational golf of late, with six finishes T13 or better in his last 10 starts. Three of those finishes were T4, T4, and second at the BMW championship. Every major statistical category is lit up green throughout the majority of his player profile, boasting an incredibly well-rounded game that should have won him a tournament by now.

He leads the field in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds, which includes an abysmal -8.6 strokes lost at the Tour Championship to cap off last season. If we are willing to ignore that performance, which can be described as an adrenaline dump after his solo second place at the BMW Championship. In a field much weaker than many of the events he notched top-10s in to end the season, a victorious lift-off is imminent.

Emiliano Grillo ($4.08 @ +4000 on DraftKings)

We have been hoping for an Emiliano Grillo victory in the last few editions of this article, and hopefully, with his putting having gained significantly in the last six events, he can finally improve on his two second-place finishes over that period. Grillo has shown significant improvement on the greens, and we now just need his patented ball striking to return to the mix in order to win his first event in some time.

He has a perfect combination of length and accuracy off the tee and when his irons are firing, they can scorch any golf course he inhabits. Emiliano has the fifth-best birdie or better rate in the field and has been knocking on the door of victory over the last while. It is time to stoke the coals and let the "Grill Master" cook!

Taylor Montgomery ($2.45 @ +2800 on DraftKings)

The most touted Korn Ferry Tour player makes an appearance on our card at ridiculous odds, considering he is new to the tour. The 28-1 price tag is warranted though, as he finished third at the Fortinet a fortnight ago. He climbed the leaderboard on the back of a putting performance that was matched by only three professionals all of last season, gaining over 11 strokes with a flat stick that could brand cattle.

With a putter that hot and a tee-to-green game that is more than adequate in a supporting role to putting performances that often see many bombs being made on the greens, his confidence is overflowing heading into the week, and if he can continue to keep the fire department on standby, he is "Taylor-made" to win at this venue.

ps: If you want additional information on Montgomery, he is a major feature of the Korn Ferry Fifty article.

 

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

First-Round Leaders

This part of the article has been punted into the deepest darkest depths of the direst body of shark-infested waters. We hit five first-round leaders the entire season, but we did so in only two events, with our payouts getting obliterated by dead heat rules that we never even returned what a single solo first-round leader ticket would have paid out. No more of that nonsense! To quote Mark Cuban, "For that reason, I'm out."

 

Placings

Until we gather enough data from the KFT graduates, we are going to limit our exposure in this market for a little while. It has been a mega-profitable portion of Breaking $100 and we want to keep it that way. That being said, there are a few decent odds on some golfers in the top-40 market.

Thomas Detry (T20: $10 @ +250 on FanDuel)

Seven of Thomas Detry's last 11 starts on ... deep breath ... the Euro, KFT, and PGA Tours, have been T15 or better. At a course that rewards his distance and flashy flat stick, FanDuel slapped Detry with a juicy +250 price tag (an implied probability of 29%) to place inside the top-20, which he has done in 64% of his last 11 starts. Hilariously, two of his missed cuts came at the Korn Ferry level, which should be the easiest of the three tours he has frequented recently.

Andrew Putnam (T40: $10 @ +155 on FanDuel)

Andrew Putnam has finished T27 or better in four of his last five starts. His last start was a T43 at the Fortinet which still is not terrible. Having finished inside the top-40 in 80% of his last five starts, FanDuel implies that he has a 39% chance of doing that again, which we disagree with as Putnam, as his name would suggest, has been "Put-n-em" in with regularity lately. In fact, he has averaged +0.65 on the greens over his last 38 rounds. We like that in this course. We like it a lot!

 

Matchups

The first of two new pieces to feature in this article is my favorite golf bet to make and I am confused as to why I did not include any matchups in the article from the very beginning. I love these bets so much because outside of the juice you pay on the betting odds, you are not really betting against the book, but instead, betting against the opponent in the matchup, making this the safest of golf bets, in my opinion.

Let me explain why this is such a safe and profitable bet. If you place a T20 bet and that player withdraws, you lose. Similarly, if you place a matchup bet and he withdraws, you lose. BUT, if you place a matchup bet and your opponent withdraws, YOU WIN! The fairest of golf betting playing fields. It also provides you with opportunities to fade players you feel are overpriced, by placing bets against them in matchups with a player we think has a significant edge over "Mr. Overrated."

In the below screenshot, we have each matchup, the sportsbook they can be found at, respective power ratings, the odds we think the matchup should be, and the value associated with each bet. Over the years of doing this, I have found that a 90-point difference in odds has returned the best results. The value column will pop (green) if odds makers' numbers are 90 points better than what we think is accurate.

We are going to be placing our bets in such a way that we return $10 in profit. Typically, we don't like to place golf bets that have negative odds, but for matchups, we are completely fine drinking the juice as we still think we have an edge. Think of it as football odds. Now, let's dive into these!

Emiliano Grillo over Adam Hadwin ($14.30 @ -143 on FanDuel)

Emiliano Grillo has made 11 of his last 13 cuts, with seven of his last nine starts no worse than T32. In Adam Hadwin's last five starts, his best finish was T37. Although Hadwin has been making cuts, his upside has been severely deficient. The power ratings over the last 24 rounds show a massive gap in results and we think Grillo should be priced at -233.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout over Adam Hadwin ($11.40 @ -114 on BetRivers)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout has made the cut in his last six starts, with three of those being T16 or better. Bezzy is one of the best putters on tour and although the model is not using any putting metrics to derive his power rating, we can imagine the edge at this course would be even bigger if it did. We are once again going up against Adam Hadwin who seems to have lost his game.

Taylor Montgomery over Keegan Bradley ($13 @ -130 on DraftKings)

We have the budding KFT stud who can putt lights out over a Keegan Bradley who has missed three of his last five cuts, finishing no better than T44 in the two cuts he did make. With Bradley's putter resorting back to its usual antics of disobedience and betrayal, we like the massive edge Montgomery has over him on the greens at this course.

Scott Stallings over Keegan Bradley ($11.40 @ -114 on BetRivers)

Scott Stallings has a floor higher than Snoop Dog, while Keegan appears to be putting like Snoop. This is probably my favorite matchup of the four.

 

A Look Into The Future

With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200 which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.

The Masters

Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)

If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.

His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.

 

The Farewell Fiver

Robby Shelton (T10: $5 @ +800 on DraftKings)

After a T21 at the Fortinet two weeks ago, Robby Shelton should continue to play impressive golf and as one of my favorite KFT graduates, we are giving him an opportunity to shine as our Farewell Fiver at 8-1. He putted really well at the Fortinet which we can hopefully expect again this week with his irons bouncing back to get him into the top-10!

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Chris Sale

Fans 10 In Tough No-Decision Tuesday
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Fans 11 In Tuesday's Win
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Sign Jimmy Holiday After Rookie Minicamp
William Contreras

Playing Through Finger Injury
Denver Broncos

Alex Singleton On Schedule To Be Ready For 2025 Season
Desmond Ridder

To Try Out For Broncos
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Non-Committal On How They Will Handle RB Situation
Derek Carr

Wants To Try To Play Through His Shoulder Injury
Donovan Mitchell

Erupts In Game 2
Tyrese Haliburton

Drains Game-Winning Shot On Tuesday Night
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Exits Early With Injury
Josh Allen

Elijah Moore's Landing Spot Swayed By Josh Allen
Stephan Jaeger

Trying For Top-10 Result In Philadelphia
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Restructure Geno Stone's Contract
Aaron Rai

Heads To Philadelphia Playing Well
Lucas Glover

Hot And Cold Heading To Truist Championship
Brashard Smith

Signs Rookie Deal With Kansas City
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeking A Little Brotherly Love
De'Andre Hunter

Ruled Out For Game 2
Darius Garland

Remains Out Tuesday
Evan Mobley

Out On Tuesday
Sam Hauser

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Kristaps Porzingis

Likely Available For Game 2
Torey Krug

Not Expected To Continue NHL Career
Jackson Merrill

Activated Off Injured List
Josh Morrissey

A Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Mark Scheifele

To Be A Game-Time Call Wednesday
Jason Robertson

Could Return For Game 1 Against Jets
Calvin Pickard

Remains Starter For Game 1 Against Vegas
Frederik Andersen

Ready For Second-Round Opener
Pavel Dorofeyev

Out On Tuesday
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Has Grade 1 Adductor Strain
Jason Day

Withdraws From The Truist Championship
Colorado Rockies

Tigers, Rockies Postponed On Tuesday
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Headed To Injured List
Spencer Shrader

The Favorite To Win Colts Kicking Job
DJ Giddens

To Be Colts Pass-Catching Back?
Christian Watson

Christian Watson "In A Really Good Spot" In His ACL Rehab
B.J. Hill

Seen In Walking Boot At Tuesday's Workouts
Jalin Hyatt

Not Likely To Be Cut
Eric Gray

Unlikely To Make 53-Man Roster
J.J. Spaun

Looking To Regain Form With His Irons At Truist Championship
Harris English

Ready For Truist Championship
Si Woo Kim

On A Positive Trend Ahead Of Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Looks To Continue Hot Putting In Philadelphia
Braden Fiske

In "Really Good Spot" In His Recovery
Robert Rochell

Chiefs Release Robert Rochell
Keegan Bradley

Looking Like His January Self
Tommy Mellott

Expected To Play Multiple Positions
Akshay Bhatia

Trying To Regain Form
Diontae Johnson

Deal Doesn't Have Any Guaranteed Money
Jaxson Dart

Has Plenty Of Developing To Do
PGA

Sungjae Im An Interesting Option At Truist Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Hoping To Find Confidence With His Putter In Philly
Sepp Straka

Finishes Tied For 13th At RBC Heritage
Adam Scott

Finishes Tied For 49th At RBC Heritage
Keith Mitchell

Receives Final Sponsor Exemption For Truist Championship
Hideki Matsuyama

Finishes Tied For 21st At Masters
Viktor Hovland

Finishes Tied For 13th At RBC Heritage
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied For 40th At Valero Texas Open
Jason Day

Finishes Tied For 49th At RBC Heritage
Wyndham Clark

Finishes Tied For 27th At RBC Heritage
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Close To 30-Point Triple-Double In Game 1 Loss
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Opens Conference Semifinals With Monster Effort
OG Anunoby

Leads Knicks Comeback Monday Night
Jalen Brunson

Bags 29 Points With Five Triples
Jaylen Brown

Nets 23 Points In Game 1 Loss
Jayson Tatum

Fills Stat Sheet On Poor Shooting Night
Sam Hauser

Injures Right Ankle Monday
William Eklund

Undergoes Wrist Surgery
Carter Verhaeghe

Delivers Two Assists In Losing Effort
Brad Marchand

Records Second Consecutive Multi-Point Game
Matthew Knies

Pots Game-Winner Monday Night
Max Pacioretty

Records Two Assists In Game 1 Victory
William Nylander

Shines In Game 1 With Three Points
Anthony Stolarz

Taken To Hospital Monday
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Add 17 Undrafted Rookie Free Agents
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Sign 16 Undrafted Rookie Free Agents
Freddie Freeman

Hits 350th Career Home Run Monday
Cole Ragans

Fans 11 In Dominant Start Monday
Kristaps Porzingis

Questionable To Return To Game 1
Cleveland Cavaliers

Kenny Atkinson Named NBA Coach Of The Year
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Injures Hamstring On Monday
MLB

Nationals-Guardians Postponed On Monday
Gary Payton II

Still Battling Illness, Questionable For Tuesday
De'Andre Hunter

Questionable To Play Tuesday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Will Begin Rehab Assignment In May
Evan Mobley

Iffy For Tuesday's Action
Darius Garland

In Danger Of Missing Another Game
Jesper Bratt

To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Luke Hughes

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
Eric Robinson

Returns To Practice Monday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Looks To Continue Domination Against Maple Leafs
Anthony Stolarz

Faces Former Team In Round 2
Mitchell Marner

Good To Go Monday
Jackson Merrill

Now Set To Return On Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Placed On Injured List
Shota Imanaga

Goes On 15-Day Injured List
Deiveson Figueiredo

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cory Sandhagen

Gets Back In The Win Column
Reinier de Ridder

Extends His Win Streak To Four
Bo Nickal

Suffers His First Loss At UFC Des Moines
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Suffers TKO Loss At UFC Des Moines
Royce Lewis

Reinstated From 10-Day Injured List
Daniel Rodriguez

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Marcos

Undefeated No More
Montel Jackson

Extends His Win Streak
Serhiy Sidey

Gets Decision Win At UFC Des Moines
Jeremy Stephens

Unsuccessful In His UFC Return
Mason Jones

Wins Decision At UFC Des Moines
Willy Adames

Goes Yard Twice In Win
Joey Logano

Steals The Victory At Texas On Sunday
Nolan McLean

Promoted To Triple-A
Kyle Larson

Strong Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish At Texas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Quietly Obtains A New Career-Best Finish At Texas
Josh Berry

Spins His Way To A Poor Result At Texas
Trey Sweeney

Has A Career Day At The Plate
Austin Riley

Blasts Two Home Runs On Sunday
Pavel Buchnevich

Collects An Assist In Game 7 Loss
Ross Chastain

Picks Up Second-Place Finish
Carson Hocevar

Bad Pit Strategy And Late-Race Crash Spoil Carson Hocevar's Top-10 Run
Erik Jones

Improbably Finishes Fifth Despite Speeding Penalty
Michael McDowell

Despite Crashing Out At Texas, Michael McDowell Surprisingly Fights For The Win
John Hunter Nemechek

Brilliant Pit Strategy Lifts John Hunter Nemechek To Eighth Place
Ty Jerome

Scores 21 Points Off The Bench On Sunday
Ryan Blaney

Frustrated After Fumbling Away Potential Win At Texas
Brad Keselowski

Woeful Season Continues With Wreck At Texas
Kyle Larson

Has One Of The Best Cars In The Field At Texas
William Byron

Will Be Tough To Beat At Texas
Chase Elliott

A Slam-Dunk DFS Pick At Texas
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Legitimately Contend At Texas This Weekend?
Ryan Blaney

Is Worth Rostering For Texas DFS Lineups On Sunday
Joey Logano

Struggling To Find Speed At Texas
Tyler Reddick

Should Be Highly Considered For DFS At Texas This Week
Daniel Suarez

Has Been One Of The Best At Texas In Next Gen Car
Denny Hamlin

Might Have Another Quality Texas Start This Week
AJ Allmendinger

Has Shown Speed At Texas This Weekend
Deiveson Figueiredo

Returns To Action
Cory Sandhagen

Set For UFC Des Moines Main Event
Bo Nickal

Set For Co-Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

An Underdog At UFC Des Moines
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks To Win Second Consecutive Fight
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Marcos

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Montel Jackson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Cameron Smotherman

Set For His Second UFC Bout
Serhiy Sidey

A Favorite At UFC Des Moines
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF