Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

ADP Showdown - Leonard Fournette vs Damien Williams


In this ADP showdown, let’s take a look at two running backs on vastly different teams and in two completely different situations.

On one hand, we have Leonard Fournette. A back on a Jacksonville Jaguars team who is known more for their defense rather than their offense. A team which has already voided the guaranteed money due to him because of immaturity concerns. Concerns which frankly are correct based on actions seen. The other running back is Damien Williams. He is on a Chiefs offense who, if it wasn’t the best before Friday, sure is now. With the return of Tyreek Hill leading to even more explosiveness in Kansas City, the bell-cow back could just become a top-five back in the league this season.

With the participants in this showdown defined, we can now take a look at the argument for each of them and you can decide which one you prefer.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

The Case for Leonard Fournette

Playing in only eight games due to injury, suspension and plain indifference led Fournette to be a major bust in 2018, but the final numbers are not the whole story.

Yes, he was a bust for sure. He has not been healthy since high school and the likelihood of him being on Jacksonville much longer are not great. But he does have two things going for him.

First and foremost, the Jaguars want to run and play defense. This means despite not even averaging 4.0 yards per carry, he will get the rock. The other key factor is his unsecured spot for the future. The team will pound him into the ground before letting him ride off into the sunset. In the NFL of today where running backs are a dime a dozen, he will be given all the work he can handle to prove himself.

Although he only finished as RB39 last season based on total points, he was still a top-15 back when it came to points per game at 13.7. Of course, these numbers can be taken any way you want them to be. I can play in one game, have a big run and a touchdown and never play again thus making the average high. But eight full games are a solid sample size for this number, and it was only a few years ago when he was a rookie, that Fournette was a top-10 running back for the entire season.

Longevity is not going to be a friend of Fournette. Even as it relates to backs in the league, he is more of a short-term player than others. But one season is short term. If the Jaguars want to get back to sniffing the postseason with Nick Foles and company, Leonard Fournette will be a big part of the equation. He will not be asked to catch the ball, thank goodness. But he will be asked to pound the rock 18 to 20 times a game or more. Last season, Ezekiel Elliott was the only running back in the league with over 300 rush attempts. The next closest was Saquon Barkley with 281. This season you should expect Fournette to join that 300-rush club and it could go much higher as well.

Currently, Leonard Fournette is going as RB15 at pick 3.02 in drafts. Despite his lack of pass-catching profile, this is a solid value for a player who should be pushing for the league lead in rush attempts. Even if he just gets to 4.0 yards per carry, he should amass 1,200 rush yards. If he can play in all 16 games, he could also reach double-digit touchdowns in the low-powered but run-heavy Jacksonville offense.

 

The Case for Damien Williams

We loved Damien Williams all offseason. Especially after Andy Reid came out and named him the starter. The starter in an Andy Reid rush attack is great, as it means bell-cow work. As the bell-cow, last season Kareem Hunt saw 71% of the snaps in the offense. In the four total games in which Damien Williams started and finished in 2018? He saw 73%. He also averaged 128 yards per game and 20.3 touches in those games.

With Tyreek Hill now back on the field officially, Williams becomes even more valuable. But also, more expensive.

Currently going in the late second-round as RB13, this number is going to climb to incredible heights in coming months leading into the season. Before the season starts, it is likely he will make his way into the late first round. But at worst the high second-round. Bell-cow back or not, for someone with limited production in his career, this could be just right for some people.

A first-round price would put him above players such as James Conner and Dalvin Cook. Both of whom could easily finish higher. But they are also players on lesser offenses, even if not significantly worse, and they also have concerns with injury. This is not a concern we have seen with Williams. All three of these backs could finish back to back to back in the ranks and all should be in consideration this high in drafts. At this point, it is your preference on which one you want to take a chance on.

Is it going to be the guy in Minnesota who cannot seem to stay healthy? The guy in Pittsburgh who may be in a split backfield with a player in Jalen Samuels whom the coaching staff wants to get on the field? Or the man in Kansas City. The man whose coach has already named the starter and is playing on the best offense in the NFL with potentially the number one QB and WR on his team.

 

Final Thoughts

Damien Williams has not shown much in the NFL. But to be fair, other than being drafted far too high, neither has Leonard Fournette since his rookie year.

Fournette will get the work in the run game as long as he stays healthy. But based on the work he received as the starter last season; Williams may not be far behind in the rush attempts in 2019. With the offense in Kansas City poised to set records, it is hard not to choose the guy on this team. You may decide to go opposite and take the riskier Fournette and this is your choice. If you do this, I hope it is because you were able to lock down the receiver position in the first two rounds of your draft.

But if you are looking for an RB one out of either of these two? Damien Williams is not only safer but also has a higher potential finish. This makes him a double threat and at least in my mind, the clear pick.

More ADP Showdown Articles


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




More Recent Articles

 

Bases Loaded Podcast: Early Round Values

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is joined by Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) and Zach Braff (@BraffZ) and they discuss early round values. They go through and highlight a few players that are going inside the top 150 in ADP that offer a great chance to return profit. Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast... Read More


Second Year Pitcher Preview: Fantasy Baseball 2020 ADP Analysis

Host Anthony Aniano of RotoBaller Radio discuss the 2020 fantasy baseball season and keeps you updated with all the latest news and analysis Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, every weekday afternoon from 1-2 PM ET, Saturday nights from 9-11 PM ET... Read More


Relief Pitchers to Target for Holds

Hold on... there are fantasy leagues that reward middle relievers, not just starters and closers? Yes, there are, and leagues that reward holds are one of the fastest-growing segments of fantasy baseball as real baseball continues to diminish the role of the starter in favor of building deep bullpens with multiple relievers that throw 95+... Read More


2020 Second Base Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

Points leagues may seem like a slight variation from traditional 5x5 category scoring leagues but you must approach draft day with a different strategy if you wish to truly compete. Rankings themselves are a different beast altogether, as category specialists like Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon (stolen bases), Kyle Schwarber and Franmil Reyes (home runs),... Read More


ADP Showdown – Matt Olson vs Paul Goldschmidt

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position... Read More


2020 Second Base Rankings - Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Leagues

As the season draws near, we realize more and more that it's draft season. There is a large portion of fantasy baseball busy with mock drafts, rankings, sleepers, and more mock drafts. The Dynasty community, on the other hand, is looking to continue their dominance, rebuild, or in a worst-case scenario, stick their hands up... Read More


Six Undervalued Draft Targets for Mixed Leagues

Heading into 2020, there are a number of players who had poor 2019 campaigns that should bounce back strong. Some of these players are presently undervalued by fantasy owners for one reason or another. In this article, I'll identify a few such players who should outperform their current ADP in 2020. While each of these... Read More


Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The fantasy baseball season is here! For those fantasy players looking to get an edge on their 2020 leagues, Best Ball formats are a great way to get a head start on the players that look to be ADP risers this season. One key... Read More


Josh Hayes' 2020 Best Ball Draft Avoids (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. The fantasy baseball season is here! For those fantasy players looking to get an edge on their 2020 leagues, Best Ball formats are a great way to get a head start on the players that look to be ADP risers this season. An underrated... Read More


Nine AL Rookies Ready to Leap Into Starting Lineups

Every year, there are those rookies who we expect to make a splash right away. Think Kris Bryant, Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge--those guys. Once we make it through all the service time manipulation shenanigans, there are always youngsters ready to snatch roster spots immediately, and 2020 is no exception. Below are nine of... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Khris Davis

The Oakland Athletics finished 2019 with a record of 97-65, which was good for a second-place finish in the AL West and a second-consecutive wildcard birth. They did this despite a statistically down season from their superstar, Khris Davis. Davis struggled mightily in 2019 by slashing .220/.293/.387 with 23 HR, 73 RBI, 61 R, and... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis: Trey Mancini vs. Christian Walker

One of the most important skills in a fantasy draft is the ability to identify a player with similar value at a lower ADP. When you're able to find similar production at a lower cost, this allows you to use an earlier pick to fill out other areas of your roster, resulting in a stronger... Read More


MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. Stay on top of all closer depth... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More