RADIO
Nick Mariano dives into the ADP pool to see which players are going much higher or lower in Yahoo fantasy baseball drafts compared to other sites and outlines how to take advantage of the average draft position trends.
Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at Yahoo's respective ADP data.
Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are priced higher or lower — being selected earlier or later — on Yahoo compared to other sites. The price tag being higher doesn't make them undraftable and being lower doesn't make them an automatic steal, but it helps to stay oriented with the bigger picture of ADP data. In general, players on Yahoo can look for some upper-tier starting pitchers to last longer on draft boards while corner infielders seem to hold a premium. From what I've seen, the majority of you would call Yahoo's data the "sharpest" between it, CBS and ESPN.
What we're looking to sidestep is the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (such as the ADP ranking column in a draft room). Here, we simply raise awareness of those whose draft stock is seemingly getting raised or dropped based on nothing other than the site's default rank. ADP data current as of February 25.
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Cheaper Early-Round Picks on Yahoo
Trevor Bauer (SP – CLE) – Yahoo ADP: 54 (ESPN: 38, CBS: 39, RTSports: 35, NFBC: 32, Fantrax: 37, Average: 39)
Bauer is being taken as an ace for most squads, especially at the 2/3 turn in 15-team NFBC high-stakes formats, so his going this late on Yahoo is beautiful. The 27-year-old upped his slider while limiting his sinker as he finally struck a pristine balance with his deep arsenal of pitches in ‘18, though a late injury removed him from the AL Cy Young award dance. It’s possible he tinkers himself into problems given his approach, but this is too disrespectful given the 30.8% strikeout rate and 22.9% K-BB rate -- both top-10 marks for SPs with >150 IP -- so take the profits and run.
Patrick Corbin (SP – WAS) – Yahoo ADP: 74 (ESPN: 58, CBS: 54, RTSports: 45, NFBC: 50, Fantrax: 52, Average: 55)
Corbin and his absurd slider have set up shop in D.C. on a cushy six-year deal and while nobody is banking on the southpaw producing a carbon copy of ‘18, he deserves higher consideration on Yahoo boards. His 246 strikeouts in 200 innings nearly all came from that slidepiece that posted a swinging-strike rate north of 30% with a 2.47 FIP/2.61 xFIP/2.91 SIERA underneath the 3.15 ERA. The 29-year-old is prone to blow-ups if the slider’s off or batters simply aren’t biting, but he’s shown enough where that’s a rarity. Also, we can’t ignore that he gets to face Miami more often while being less likely to pitch in Coors Field.
Raisel Iglesias (RP – CIN) – Yahoo ADP: 128 (ESPN: 103, CBS: 132, RTSports: 82, NFBC: 102, Fantrax: 81, Average: 105)
It’s possible that this ADP slip is due to Yahoo drafts opening later and a greater magnitude of reaction to Reds manager David Bell’s saying that Iglesias won’t strictly be a closer. The good news is Iglesias has a history of multi-inning outings and even a fireman-esque eighth inning could turn into a two-inning save. Some positives from ‘18 are a career-high 15.3% swinging-strike rate (13.9% in ‘17) and a 21.2% soft-contact rate (15.1% in ‘17). But he also had a 10-percentage-point rise in hard-hit rate yielded, which fueled the 18.8% HR/FB rate (8.3% in ‘17). I'm buying the middle ground here and would call Iglesias one of the last guys I'd want as my RP1.
Victor Robles (OF – WAS) – Yahoo ADP: 140 (ESPN: 138, CBS: 73, RTSports: 137, NFBC: 100, Fantrax: 129, Average: 119)
Robles may be an elder statesman compared to Juan Soto, but the speedster has consistently shown a plus contact tool, a good eye and a strong conversion rate on the basepaths alongside blossoming pop as he enters 2019. Plus, he can order a beer while Soto still can’t, so who’s the winner here? An elbow injury sidelined Robles for much of ‘18 but he still turned 66 plate appearances into three homers, three steals and a .288/.348/.525 triple slash. I know, horrific small-sample size alert, but you could get Lorenzo Cain-lite (without the carbs) later on average here.
Jose Peraza (2B/SS – CIN) – Yahoo ADP: 150 (ESPN: 119, CBS: 128, RTSports: 114, NFBC: 95, Fantrax: 106, Average: 119)
Either everyone on Yahoo is exponentially more concerned than everyone else about the Reds signing Jose Iglesias, or something’s simply awry. I respect the argument that Peraza suddenly hitting 14 homers after never topping five in a season (at any level) is hard to bank on, but we do live in the launch-angle era and he’s only 24 years old -- hardly past the point of putting some muscle on his frame. If he can stop expanding the strike zone and make consistent contact then his plus wheels should yield a BABIP higher than .307 with a 10 HR/30 SB campaign well within reach. Throw in an RBI tally around 50-60 and the possibility of 100 runs in a revamped Reds offense and I’m very interested at this price.
Other Cheaper Picks
C: Wilson Ramos -- Yahoo ADP: 161, Average ADP: 140
1B: Max Muncy -- Yahoo ADP: 124, Average ADP: 113
2B: Dee Gordon -- Yahoo ADP: 107, Average ADP: 97
3B: Jurickson Profar -- Yahoo ADP: 155, Average ADP: 135
SS: Paul DeJong -- Yahoo ADP: 214, Average ADP: 205 (I know, barely any + value!)
OF: Tommy Pham -- Yahoo ADP: 88, Average ADP: 76
OF2: David Dahl -- Yahoo ADP: 111, Average ADP: 97
OF3: Mallex Smith -- Yahoo ADP: 134, Average ADP: 113
OF4: Eloy Jimenez -- Yahoo ADP: 199, Average ADP: 119
SP1: Madison Bumgarner -- Yahoo ADP: 101, Average ADP: 77
SP2: Zack Wheeler -- Yahoo ADP: 120, Average ADP: 100
RP1: Mychal Antonio Givens -- Yahoo ADP: 277, Average ADP: 243
RP2: Jose Alvarado -- Yahoo ADP: 282, Average ADP: 195
Costly Early-Round Picks on Yahoo
Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL) – Yahoo ADP: 46 (ESPN: 53, CBS: 53, RTSports: 61, NFBC: 53, Fantrax: 53, Average: 53)
For the record, I’m not on board with Albies’ ADP across the board but I understand the appeal. He wasn’t as good as that torrid April but he’s better than the colder rest-of-season numbers, with most projection systems spitting out 20 homers, 160 R+RBI, 16 steals and a .275 average. Everyone seems either too attached to the hot start or cold finish rather than splitting the difference, but I still wouldn’t overpay here. I’d rather have Rougned Odor, who cracked 12 homers and stole seven bases with a .266 average in the second half, at 60-70 picks later.
Jose Abreu (1B – CWS) – Yahoo ADP: 56 (ESPN: 74, CBS: 62, RTSports: 78, NFBC: 82, Fantrax: 68, Average: 70)
Abreu toiled through 2018 with poor batted-ball and injury luck that’s pushed his ADP down on other sites, yet Yahoo hasn’t budged nearly as much. He had delivered at least a .290 average, 25 homers and 100 RBI in his first four seasons, but the average slipping to .265 while he played in just 128 games burned owners. That said, Statcast gave him an xBA of .280 and a.357 xwOBA, which ranked 45th out of 313 batters with at least 250 PAs in ‘18.
He was rebounding from a summer slump by hitting .330/.394/.652 with nine homers from July 20-Aug. 20 but then required emergency groin surgery. He returned on Sept. 10 but was shelved for the rest of the season with an unrelated infection less than a week later.
Justin Upton (OF – LAA) – Yahoo ADP: 68 (ESPN: 73, CBS: 97, RTSports: 88, NFBC: 94, Fantrax: 100, Average: 87)
Those looking to employ Upton’s services on Yahoo are unlikely to get a discount, but he remains a consistent force worth paying for if you’ve taken on risk early. J-Up has played in at least 145 games in eight straight seasons with a minimum of eight swipes while averaging ~30 homers. You may have Upton-fatigue at this point and suspect he’s getting too old since he entered the show at age-19, but he’s only 31 years old and has plenty in the tank. I won't blame anyone for "reaching" on Yahoo if they'd like, but you can see other sites will help profit margins if targeting him.
Josh Donaldson (3B – ATL) – Yahoo ADP: 76 (ESPN: 102, CBS: 103, RTSports: 92, NFBC: 99, Fantrax: 88, Average: 93)
Donaldson is the bringer of immeasurable hope for many fantasy owners in 2019 as he’s slated to hit second in a powerful Atlanta order. There’s no turf monster to attack Josh’s calf in Atlanta and it’s easy to forget how Donaldson produced an OPS above .935 in 2015, ‘16 and ‘17. While I have little doubt about his ability to produce when healthy, those looking to gamble on his healthy should target shares on sites experiencing a rain drought rather than Yahoo. Diversify your portfolio in the wisest ways possible instead of buying high on this platform.
Chris Archer (SP – PIT) – Yahoo ADP: 121 (ESPN: 168, CBS: 122, RTSports: 116, NFBC: 131, Fantrax: 138, Average: 133)
Archer is part of an exclusive club with the likes of Jon Gray and Michael Pineda, where they all meet once a week to laugh about how their ERAs will one day match their amazing FIPs, xFIPs and SIERAs. One day. Archer’s 2018 was segmented by an abdominal injury on June 2, before which he went 3-4 with a 4.24 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 3.87 xFIP and a 76/26 K/BB in 76 ⅓ IP, but he looked stronger down the stretch.
Archer came back on July 9 and posted a 26/5 K/BB in 19 ⅔ IP before being dealt to Pittsburgh at the Trade Deadline. It took him six starts to deeper than five frames in his new uniform, but he averaged six innings across five September starts with a 2.70 ERA and a 36/9 K/BB and lowly .213/.282/.396 slash line allowed. He had a similar month in May, but the other four were bleh. You’re paying up an extra round against NFBC and Fantrax, let alone the huge drop to ESPN.
Other Pricier Picks
C: Buster Posey -- Yahoo ADP: 118, Average ADP: 128
1B: Daniel Murphy -- Yahoo ADP: 73, Average ADP: 88
2B: Jonathan Villar -- Yahoo ADP: 92, Average ADP: 102
3B: Justin Turner -- Yahoo ADP: 86, Average ADP: 103
SS: Elvis Andrus -- Yahoo ADP: 142, Average ADP: 172
OF1: Lorenzo Cain -- Yahoo ADP: 50, Average ADP: 66
OF2: A.J. Pollock -- Yahoo ADP: 89, Average ADP: 105
OF3: Wil Myers -- Yahoo ADP: 94, Average ADP: 106
OF4: Aaron Hicks -- Yahoo ADP: 108, Average ADP: 126
SP1: Masahiro Tanaka -- Yahoo ADP: 110, Average ADP: 125
SP2: Yusei Kikuchi -- Yahoo ADP: 172, Average ADP: 187
RP1: Kenley Jansen -- Yahoo ADP: 52, Average ADP: 69
RP2: Kirby Yates -- Yahoo ADP: 114, Average ADP: 125
