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Pierre Camus finds hitters whose ATC projections could make them overvalued or undervalued in 2022 fantasy baseball drafts.
The industry-leading ATC Projections are live for the 2022 fantasy baseball season. That means it's time to dive into the numbers to see what the fantasy takeaway is for key players.
As Ariel Cohen himself explained in a recent breakdown of risk analysis using ATC, projections aren't meant to be viewed as exact predictions. They encapsulate the most likely outcome based on various statistical factors. There's no way to fully account for injuries, COVID, or other intangible factors. That said, these projections go a long way toward determining how we should view individual players on draft day.
In the following piece, I will highlight a few fantasy-relevant players who I feel may greatly underachieve or outperform their projections and therefore may not be priced appropriately on draft day.
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Salvador Perez
2022 ATC Projections: .264 AVG, 34 HR, 99 RBI, 74 R, 1 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .273, 48 HR, 121 RBI, 88 R, 1 SB
Nearly everyone expects some form of negative regression for Perez after he launched a career-high 48 HR that far surpassed his previous high of 27. The same goes for his Major League-leading 121 RBI after he hadn't topped 80 RBI ever before. Just how far he might fall is the question and the answer is a bit jarring, to be honest.
His projected total of 34 dingers is perfectly reasonable but it might border on overly pessimistic. Perez had been making steady gains in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrels for five straight seasons. That goes for every pitch type too.
Perhaps the most telling and unbelievable stat is that he should have hit more home runs last year. His xHR was 51.4 according to Statcast, so he underachieved in the HR department. This doesn't necessarily mean he's going for 48+ this year but it's a reminder not to overestimate the importance of projections that are meant to be conservative in nature and don't always account for recent trends.
Marcus Semien
2022 ATC Projections: .260 AVG, 31 HR, 85 RBI, 97 R, 11 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .265, 45 HR, 102 RBI, 115 R, 15 SB
Like Perez, here's another hitter coming off a career year based mostly on power output. No surprise that he should be projected to fall quite a bit. Unlike Perez, who I believe will come closer to his 2021 stats than his 2022 projections, I am worried that Semien will fall further behind than expected.
First, we're talking about a player with a career .256 average and .240 xBA, so even .260 might be overly generous. The power projections are fine but will he be able to score 97 runs in a Rangers lineup that was 28th in runs scored last year? They added Corey Seager to back him up but otherwise, it's mostly the same offense that returns from last year and that includes a lot of question marks and maybes.
Then, there's the intangible that must at least be acknowledged - Semien got paid. Last year, he was playing on a one-year deal with Toronto after a string of them in Oakland to avoid arbitration. Now that he's set with $175 million over seven years, two things could happen: the pressure to perform and live up to expectations could cripple him or the motivation may turn down a notch now that contract security is no issue. I am not saying either of those will happen and it has nothing to do with Semien personally, it's simply something to consider for any player moving to another team/city after a big payday.
I expect Semien to at least approach his ATC projections, not fall well short, but that implies that his ADP is far too high. Semien is going 33 overall in NFBC drafts. If you wait until pick 80, you could get Jorge Polanco, who is projected for a very similar statline: .268 AVG, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 91 R, 9 SB.
Christian Yelich
2022 ATC Projections: .265 AVG, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 88 R, 14 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .248, 9 HR, 51 RBI, 70 R, 9 SB
First the caveat: Yelich was limited to 399 AB last year and is projected for 102 more this year. That would partly account for a bump in counting stats. But the most notable thing about Yelich's projections is that they are a far cry from his pre-2020 numbers, especially in batting average.
Everyone insists we should just toss 2020 stats in the trash can, so let's do that and see what's left. Yelich is a player that "earned" a .254 xBA in 2021, saw his barrel rate drop to half of what it was in 2019, and fell in love with chopping the ball into the ground again. His 55% GB% and 17% FB% look just like pre-MVP Yelich before he unlocked his power stroke in Milwaukee. In his last two seasons with Miami, he hit 21 and 18 homers respectively, so a ballpark bump up to 23 looks about right.
Those expecting Yelich to snap out of his two-year slump and become an elite fantasy asset again might want to take a hard look at these projections. Then try to figure out how to convince yourself that he could drastically outperform them and reconsider.
Bobby Dalbec
2022 ATC Projections: .237 AVG, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 69 R, 3 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .240, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 50 R, 2 SB
Nearly all projection systems like Dalbec to keep the starting first base job all year and put up better numbers in his second full season but ATC has him slated for the highest HR total at 32. That means he'll have to hold off prospect Triston Casas and perhaps play a little better defense.
The story here isn't that Dalbec could make slight improvements with more playing time and experience. Rather, it's the fact that a player projected to finish top-25 in homers, sixth at his position, is available well outside the top 200 picks (224 in NFBC).
Mark Canha
2022 ATC Projections: .238 AVG, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 77 R, 9 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .231, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 93 R, 12 SB
Canha was a great late-round pick or waiver wire add last season, helping out in all categories except batting average. Perhaps the projections would be optimistic for a player who hit .246 and .273 the previous two years? Not so much.
His average was spot-on according to his .231 xBA and may not improve much. Despite a superb walk rate and league-leading 27 HBP, if Canha doesn't hit in the top half of the lineup, the massive drop in runs scored could also be spot-on, which nullifies much of his appeal. He could still be a decent fifth outfielder but moving to the Metropolitans isn't expected to be a boon to his fantasy value.
DJ LeMahieu
2022 ATC Projections: .282 AVG, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 85 R, 4 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .268, 10 HR, 57 RBI, 84 R, 4 SB
One area where projections tend to be the most conservative is batting average. Out of all batters with at least 100 AB in 2021, there were 25 who finished the year with a .300 or higher average. ATC projects four batters over .300 for 2022: Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Trea Turner, and of course, Luis Arraez.
LeMahieu no longer makes the cut but ATC is splitting the difference between his career .300 average and last year's .268 mark. After tearing the cover off the ball in his age-30 season of 2019 and faring just as well in 2020, he was down across the board last season. Injuries can't be blamed either, as his 679 plate appearances were second-most of his career.
This could be a case where bad luck did come into play, since his .301 BABIP represented a 69-point drop from 2020 and was 39 points lower than his career mark. Likewise, his 7.7% HR/FB% was his lowest since 2015 and well below his 10% career mark. I wouldn't count on a full return to the Bronx Bomber version of LeMahieu but there could be more positive regression in store than we expect.
Byron Buxton
2022 ATC Projections: .270 AVG, 29 HR, 74 RBI, 79 R, 15 SB
2021 MLB Statline: .306, 19 HR, 32 RBI, 50 R, 9 SB
Forget the roto stats, I just want to focus on the fact that ATC projects Buxton for 458 at-bats! Of course, health and playing time are any projection system's weakest points because stupid human bodies keep getting injured in unpredictable ways.
If we get anything close to a full season of Buxton, we could easily get a 30-20 season. His R+RBI totals appear to be lacking, especially based on a top-60 ADP, but if he performs at the MVP level we saw early last year (if, if, if...) then he will blow these projections out the water.
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