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Austin Ekeler is a tough player to value for fantasy football drafts. Eli Grabanski analyzes Ekeler's profile and whether the running back is a good fantasy value pick in 2021.
Today's fantasy football profile will take a look at running back Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers by looking at his positives, his concerns, and a variety of other important information in determining his fantasy outlook for 2021.
Ekeler is a player who is pretty polarizing in the fantasy community because he doesn't have the 'name brand' that many of the other top running backs do and his value primarily stems from his pass-catching ability. So where does it make sense to consider Ekeler in fantasy drafts?
Let's dive in!
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The Positives With Austin Ekeler
- Elite Receiving Threat: In 2019, Ekeler caught 92 passes on 108 targets for 993 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. In just 10 games in 2020, he caught 54 passes on 65 targets for 403 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Clearly, he is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league.
- Efficiency & Talent: In his career, Ekeler has posted PFF grades of 74.6 (2017), 84.2 (2018), 85.2 (2019), and 77.0 (2020). Ekeler has also averaged above 4.0 YPC in every single season of his career, with his career average sitting at a healthy 4.7 YPC. He's an above-average talent, which will lead to better numbers and more snaps on the field.
- High Broken Tackle %: Austin Ekeler posted a broken tackle % of 19.0% last year which was above-average for a running back. He also had 60% of his yards after contact and averaged 2.7 yards after contact - both of which were above average.
The Concerns With Austin Ekeler
- Carry Limit: Austin Ekeler has yet to see more than 132 carries in a single season (2019). He was on pace for 186 carries last year if he had played in every game (only played in 10 games). Ekeler will likely never see 200+ carries in a season, which may limit his upside a bit.
- Red Zone Rushing Usage: Austin Ekeler saw only 18 red zone rushing attempts last year according to NFL Savant which ranked 3rd on the team behind Joshua Kelley (25) and Kalen Ballage (24). Ekeler is only around 200 lbs and has maxed out at just 3 rushing touchdowns in a single season (both 2018 and 2019) so don’t be expected a ton of rushing touchdowns from him now.
- Offensive Line Play: The Chargers offensive line ranked 32nd last year according to PFF. While there's nowhere to go but up and they are still projected to be just the 18th best offensive line in the league in 2021 and will most likely be subpar once again. If the line is subpar, it will make it more difficult for Ekeler to be efficient on the ground.
Additional Info
- Previous Fantasy Numbers: Playing in just 10 games, Austin Ekeler was the RB35 in standard (11.1 fantasy PPG), RB29 in 0.5 PPR (13.8 fantasy PPG), and RB26 in PPR (16.5 fantasy PPG) during the 2020 season. In 2019, he was the RB7 in standard (13.6 fantasy PPG), RB6 in 0.5 PPR (16.4 fantasy PPG), and RB4 in PPR (19.3 fantasy PPG).
- Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi: The Chargers' new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi ran a notoriously pass-heavy offense when he was in Detroit. Over the course of his 23 game career as the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator (2014-2015), his running back room averaged 7.22 receptions on 10.39 targets for 60.35 receiving yards and 0.35 receiving touchdowns per game. Lombardi targeted his running backs 162 times in 2014, so if he takes a similar approach in Los Angeles, Ekeler should end up with the most RB receptions in the league.
- On the flip side, Joe Lombardi's entire RB room has averaged just 19.70 carries, 71.83 rushing yards, and 0.48 rushing touchdowns per game on the ground. There is a big difference between the success of his running backs in standard formats versus PPR formats.
- 2020 Injuries: Ekeler had a hamstring strain & knee hyperextension, a quadriceps strain, and a concussion just last year. There are questions on if his body can hold up as the lead back.
Personal Thoughts
Austin Ekeler is currently going off the board as RB10 on ESPN (14.4 overall), RB8 on NFL.com (10.21 overall), and RB10 on Yahoo (16.3 overall). To me, Ekeler is a guy that is appropriately valued in 0.5 PPR and PPR leagues given his massive pass-catching upside but slightly overvalued in standard leagues given his lack of red-zone usage. He could legitimately catch 100+ passes this season in Joe Lombardi's system, but there's also a pretty good chance he ends up with less than eight total touchdowns all year. Overall, I'm avoiding him at his current price in standard but in PPR leagues I would feel comfortable with him as my RB1 and ecstatic if I somehow landed him as my RB2.
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