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Nick Federline's NCAA college basketball betting picks for Wednesday, January 13, 2021. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Welcome back! In this article every week, we'll be giving you some of the top college basketball games and betting picks for Wednesday, January 13, 2021.
Last week's slate of games got things back in the win column with a 3-0 week. The Citadel kept things close in a home loss to division-foe Furman, while Ohio State ran away with an easy home conference over Northwestern. In the late game, Southeastern Louisiana had control of the game against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi from wire to wire for an easy cover. The 3-0 week improves the season-long record to 16-8.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks. Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
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Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin - 7:30 pm
Northwestern State has been led by Coach Mike McConathy (47.2% win percentage) for 22 seasons, having taken the Demons to the NCAA Tournament three times. You would have to go back 7 years to find the last season that McConathy's team had a record above .500, however. The latest matchup between these teams ended very badly for Northwestern State - a 90 to 59 defeat. The Demons will hope this trip across the Sabine River is far more productive. A 2-13 record is far below what McConathy had likely hoped his senior-laden team might accomplish. Senior center Larry Owens has been a maddeningly inconsistent post player that has posted 3.7 rebounds per game. To date, the Demons have not found a go-to scorer, with junior guard Trenton Massner (12.4 points per game) and senior guard Jairus Roberson (11.1 ppg) the only players averaging double-digit points. A roster with five seniors returning had much higher hopes, but the 2020-2021 season looks to be yet another dismal lost season for Northwestern State.
For the better part of the 21st Century, Nacogdoches, Texas, has been privy to many high-quality basketball teams. The Stephen F. Austin (SFA) Lumberjacks have experienced a highly successful run since Coach Danny Kaspar was first hired before the 2000-2001 season. Kaspar moved on to Texas State and was replaced by current Illinois coach Brad Underwood, who experienced a 3-year run including 3 NCAA Tournament appearances and an upset win. Current Coach Kyle Keller took the reins from Underwood and has maintained the overall programmatic excellence by scouring the junior college ranks for immediate impact players. The Jacks' top scorer Cameron Johnson, who came to Nacogdoches from Tyler Junior College, is averaging over 17 points per game. The top rebounder, Gavin Kensmil, comes to SFA from Navarro Junior College. As a team, SFA has been hyper-efficient from the floor (53.5 field goal percentage as a team) and securing the boards with a +6 rebounding average per game. At 82 points per game, Coach Keller's team enjoys a fast-paced game, full of steals, tempo, and the traditional SFA basketball that endeared them as a Cinderella team during the last decade.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin -13.5
Chattanooga @ Samford - 8:00 pm
The 2020-2021 Chattanooga Mocs' basketball season has been to live and die by guard David Jean-Baptiste, a senior from Miami, Florida. Jean-Baptiste, in his third season as a starter for Coach Lamont Paris' team, is scoring 18.6 ppg, aided by a 52% field goal percentage inside the arc, and an 82% free throw shooting percentage. His backcourt mate, the sophomore wing Malachi Smith, transferred into the program from Wright State and has made an immediate impact to the tune of 16.3 ppg and 9.8 rebounds per game - all while rarely leaving the floor (36.1 minutes per game). After a 9-0 start to the year, the Mocs have faltered a bit of late with losses in four of their first 6 conference games. The first match between these teams, held at Chattanooga's McKenzie Arena, resulted in a narrow 5-point Mocs victory.
Samford made one of the most intriguing and "outside-of-the-box" coaching hires that Division I coaching has ever seen. Samford hired Birmingham, Alabama high school coach Bucky McMillan to lead the program, with the hopes that his time as a successful area high school coach would provide Samford with an in-roads with better recruits. McMillan instituted a high-tempo offense on day one, which has resulted in 81.9 points per game (26th in the nation). The flip side of the high tempo is a defense that allows nearly 79 points per game (318 in the country). If the game turns into a track meet, that would seem to favor senior guard Myron Gordon and sophomore wing Christian Guess, the top two scorers at 15.6 and 15.9 points per game, respectively. In addition to the porous defense, Samford's rebounding leaves much to be desired. The primary center, Portland University grad transfer Jacob Tryon, is a figurative "stick" at 6-11, 210 pounds, and he provides very little interior force as a three-point shooting big.
Pick: Chattanooga PK
Nicholls State @ Houston Baptist - 8:00 pm
At 31 years of age, Coach Austin Claunch, who was born in Buenos Aires, Argentina, has been the youngest head coach in Division I for each of the past three seasons. Claunch's 2020-2021 season was a highly productive 21-10 season, where Nicholls State entered with incredibly low expectations. The Colonels are in the midst of a 4-game winning streak, all-conference wins. The offense appears mediocre at first glance (72.8 ppg), but was skewed by early-season blowout losses to Cal and Saint Mary's in which the Colonels scored a combined 99 points. Junior forward Najee Garvin has provided length and scoring with 13.3 ppg and 7.1 rebounds per game. In some games, Claunch will run his team 12-deep, and the depth is enviable in the Southland. While Nicholls is not yet an elite program on the tier of Stephen F. Austin (who will be departing for the Western Athletic Conference in 2022), they are trending upwards under Claunch and are in a good shape to position themselves as the successor to SFA's conference dominance.
Coach Ron Cottrell guided Houston Baptist as they transitioned to Division I status in the 2013-2014 season. His style has included a ton of points scored in most games - mostly by the other team. Last year's 4-25 record featured a team that scored over 80 points per game but gave up 94 points per game on defense. Cottrell has tightened the defense a bit this year - only allowing 82.8 points per game (ranking 337th out of the 347 Division I teams playing this fall). This defensive improvement is chiefly because Cottrell has toned down the pace, with the Huskies scoring only 71.7 points per game. Freshman guard Za-Ontay Boothman chose Houston Baptist over offers from Central Arkansas, Denver, and Northern Arizona. That decision looks to have been a sound one, as Boothman has the look of a future Southland Conference star. Houston Baptist still has a young team, only 3 seniors on the roster and Coach Cottrell should be given another year to see whether Boothman and the contingent of 8 underclassmen can develop a winning team finally in Houston.
Pick: Over 153.5
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina - 7:00 pm
In the offseason, former Coach Steve Forbes took the opportunity to bolt to Wake Forest, amid a lot of roster turnover. New coach Jason Shay inherited a team that only brought 10.4% of minutes played from the prior year. Thus far, junior forwards (and brothers) Ledarrius and Ty Brewer have been the instant impact transfers that Coach Shay needed. Ledarrius, who transferred in from Southeast Missouri State, is the team's leading scorer at 16.9 ppg. Ty, at 6-9, has been relied on as the defensive post presence and is averaging near double-figure scoring. With so much roster turnover, the 7-5 start has to be considered a huge step forward for the program. The Buccaneers had won at least 24 wins in each of Steve Forbes' preceding five seasons, laying the expectations for Coach Shay very high in Johnson City, Tennessee. In the first match between these teams, at home at the Freedom Hall Civic Center, the Bucs held off Western Carolina with an 86-78 win.
Coach Mark Prosser 's team charged out to a 6-1 start, only to crash back down to earth with four losses in their next five games. The Catamounts sport two of the best guards in the Southern Conference in seniors Matt Halvorsen and Mason Faulkner. Halvorsen, a 6-1 sharpshooter from Kingsport, Tennessee, is averaging over 15 ppg and connects on 4 three-pointers per game. Faulkner transferred to Western Carolina from Northern Kentucky and has been one of the best point guards in the conference for his two seasons in Cullowhee, North Carolina. Faulkner scores at a high level (17.6 ppg), is an elite distributor (4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), and rebounds much better than his 6-1 stature would project (6 rebounds per game). Faulker is the heart-and-soul of Prosser's team and will need to be key to any resurgence in conference play.
Pick: Western Carolina +1.5
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
