College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week Eleven (11/14/2020)

November 14, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 11. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

With a 3rd straight perfect 3-0 week, it feels as good a time as ever to remind everyone to please bet responsibly. Lets hope that the highs continue with another week of college football action.

Last week, the Pitt Panthers easily dispatched of a dreadful Florida State team, Florida not only covered the spread upset SEC rival Georgia, and Arizona State nearly knocked off USC as a double-digit underdog. The 9-0 run in our last three weeks brings the season-long record to 19-8.

Week Ten's slate gives us our second week of Pac-12 action, an ACC rivalry matchup, and an aspiring title contender. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

Texas-El Paso (UTEP) at Texas-San Antonio (UTSA) (-6)

O/U: 45

The City of El Paso has experienced a significant surge in coronavirus cases, causing the Miners to have their past three games cancelled. To combat this, UTEP moved its upcoming home games to a 15,000-seat high school stadium in Midland, Texas, which lies about 300 miles east of campus. This first game back, on the road in San Antonio, will be the first of a gauntlet where the team will be staying away from campus in unfamiliar territory. Coach Dana Dimel's 3-3 record is impressive considering the team won only one game in 2019, but much less impressive when you consider the strength of those wins. Those three wins consist of two narrow wins over Southland Conference foes (Stephen F. Austin and Abilene Christian), and a defeat of the winless Louisiana-Monroe, who are arguably the worst team in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS).

The UTSA Roadrunners have defended their home turf well this year, with a 3-1 record in the early going. Coach Jeff Traylor, in his first season at the helm, has kept his team disciplined and within reach in road tilts against BYU and UAB that very few observers expected. Running back Sincere McCormick is a gamebreaker who ranks second in the nation in rushing yards. A year ago, in a 10-point win at UTEP,  McCormick notched 189 yards on the ground and led the Roadrunners to a convincing win despite a nonexistent passing attack in the game. At quarterback in 2020, junior Frank Harris has provided the team with a dual-threat weapon that it lacked last season. Harris has relied on a trio of receivers - Josh Cephus, Zakhari Franklin, and Brennon Dingle - to vault the air attack back to respectability.

The rebuilding project in San Antonio has gone smoothly, but it also started much further along than their counterparts in El Paso. The promising offensive pieces in Harris, McCormick and Cephus have proven their ability to put up points against strong defenses, and should continue this week against an overmatched Miners squad. UTEP may have three wins in the ledger thus far, but the wins feel rather empty.

Pick: UTSA -6

#9 Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech (-2.5)

O/U: 67.5

Coach Manny Diaz's second season has been a rousing success thus far. The Hurricanes offense has improved by leaps and bounds under the guidance of first-year offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee and Houston graduate transfer quarterback D'Eriq King. King has exploded recently, developing a strong rapport with wide receivers Mike Harley and Mark Pope to create a plethora of explosive plays. On defense, the Hurricanes have experienced their share of both highs and lows, allowing 41 points to NC State, and holding Virginia to only 14. The defensive end tandem of Quincy Roche and Jaelen Phillips have combined for 16 tackles for loss and 5 sacks thus far, keeping opposing quarterbacks on their toes. Despite the pressure up front, and highly touted cornerback Al Blades leading the secondary, the defense has been gashed for too many big plays in the passing game.

One of the many downsides of the coronavirus to college sports will be the lack of financial flexibility afforded to programs in the coming years. Coach Justin Fuente's seat would otherwise be burning after the Hokies' home loss to Liberty last week. All five of the Hokies' expected starting offensive linemen are underclassmen, and more apt to mistakes that the talented Miami defensive front will surely take advantage of. Star running back Khalil Herbert, a graduate transfer from Kansas, left the Liberty game and is questionable to play on Saturday. Quarterback Hendon Hooker has been relatively efficient in the passing game, and will always be a threat with his legs.

College football fans with bucket lists surely will want to experience Lane Stadium when "Enter Sandman" is played. The coronavirus pandemic has reduced the number of fans, but Blacksburg is still a difficult place to play. All eyes should be fixated on the availability of Miami tight end Brevin Jordan, who is trending towards being available Saturday, and Virginia Tech running back Khalil Herbert, who is trending in the opposite direction. If Miami can contain the Hokies running game, it could be a long day for the home team.

Pick: Miami +2.5

Oregon at Washington State (+10)

O/U: 57.5

The Oregon Ducks kicked off their season with a dominant win over Stanford. Sophomore quarterback Tyler Shough became only the second Oregon quarterback (Vernon Adams, 2015) to throw for 200 yards and rush for 80 more yards. Shough is surrounded by talented weapons like running back CJ Verdell, who recorded 105 yards on the ground, and wide receiver Johnny Johnson, who has started 30 games in his career. Defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, who is the highest ranked recruit in Oregon history, notched 9 sacks as a true freshman in 2019, earning a spot on the freshman All-American team. With only 7 scheduled games on the schedule, Oregon will need to win convincingly and with style if the Ducks want to sneak into the College Football Playoff.

Washington State, in its first year under new head coach Nick Rolovich, has kept its air raid offense style. Following a road win over Oregon State, the Cougars return home for their home opener in Pullman, Washington. With true freshman quarterback Jayden de Laura at the helm, the Cougars offense roared to 38 points in the opener. Talented running back Max Borghi, who entered 2020 on the watch lists for both the Biletnikoff (top receiver) and Doak Walker (running back) awards, sat out the opener for back issues, and his status for Saturday's tilt against Oregon is unknown.

Oregon needs to make an impression on the selection committee to prove the "quality over quantity" argument, with only 7 opportunities on the schedule. With an experienced, quality offense and deep defense, Coach Mario Cristobal may have the best Ducks team since Dennis Dixon was the signal-caller. Expect Thibodeaux and the Ducks' defense to give the freshman quarterback de Laura all that he can handle in a convincing victory.

Pick: Oregon -10