2020 Rookie Breakouts - September Surgers

Prior to the 2020 rule change that limits September rosters to just 28 players, it was the time of the year where there would be a lot of rookies making their debuts, getting their feet wet, and experiencing Major League pitching for the first time.

Whatever you may have thought about this rule, it was an opportunity for some players that may not otherwise get a chance to earn playing time in the majors to turn heads with a strong Fall. Often, this may help a player earn a closer look the next season.

If/when the 2020 MLB season begins, chances are there will be expanded rosters, which will help even more for some of these players on the roster bubble. That being said, let's take a look at some rookies who experienced a September surge that may be fantasy relevant in 2020.

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Austin Hays (OF, BAL)

September Stats: 19 G, 75 PA, .309/.378/.576 .396 wOBA, 146 wRC+ 

While Austin Hays made his Major League debut back in 2017, the former top-100 prospect is still rookie-eligible after spending a lot of 2018 and 2019 injured, which impacted his performance in the minor leagues. Finally being back to full health in late-2019 and with not a lot going for the Baltimore Orioles, he earned a late-season call-up and made the most of it with a very impressive slash line, and reminding the baseball world why he was such a highly regarded prospect.

While Statcast doesn't exactly support his strong slash line, that doesn't mean his peripherals were bad. In fact, they were quite good, with an 89.8 miles-per-hour average exit velocity that is well above the league average to go along with a 41.8% hard-hit rate. So while Statcast doesn't think he was a true .576 slugger, it still liked him, with a .487 xSLG, and .364 xwOBA, which would definitely be a nice combination over the course of a full season. His batted-ball profile was also quite strong, featuring a nice proportion of line drives and fly balls while limiting groundballs and pop-ups. Hays was never an extreme groundball hitter in the minors, so this is a profile that should stick in the Majors.

Perhaps the most attractive thing about Hays is the Orioles playing time situation. There should be no reason for the Orioles to not play Hays nearly every day and at a lucrative spot in the lineup. Prior to the shutdown, Hays was seen as the likely leadoff hitter, a spot where he should be able to contribute a good amount of counting stats. That should help him easily pay off his light draft cost at around pick 254 per NFBC ADP data.

Sam Hilliard (OF, COL)

September Stats: 21 G, 70 PA, .262/.357/.607 .394 wOBA, 129 wRC+ 

Sam Hilliard is a player that has gotten a lot of love in fantasy circles this preseason. He's viewed as an intriguing late-round option that could provide a nice combination of power and speed for the Colorado Rockies and he could be quite a profitable player for those who decide to buy in.

Yes, Hilliard's strong September stats surely are influenced by Coors Field. He still had good peripheral numbers coming from Statcast, with a .478 xSLG, 90.8 miles-per-hour average exit velocity, 42.6% hard-hit rate, and a 13% barrel rate, all of which are good signs.

Combine all of that with 93rd percentile sprint speed, and now we start to see where a lot of that intrigue comes from. Hilliard definitely has the potential for 20 home runs and 20 steals wouldn't be out of the question either over the course of a full 162 game season, which would be a steal at his ADP.

Hilliard's main defect though is his high strikeout rate, which has consistently been in the mid-20% range throughout his professional career. This could limit his batting average upside, but at his price and ADP, we shouldn't expect a flawless player. Additionally, playing time in Colorado is anything but certain, and there are a lot of players still hanging around in the playing time conversation for the Rockies including Ian Desmond, Garrett Hampson, Raimel Tapia, and Yonathan Daza. With a universal DH expected for whatever type of 2020 season we get, Hilliard should have an easier path to playing time under those circumstances.

Shed Long (2B, SEA)

September Stats: 23 G, 89 PA, .289/.337/.518, .356 wOBA, 127 wRC+ 

While Shed Long made his debut earlier in the 2019 season, September was the first month that he received near-everyday playing time, and he made the most of it with a strong slash line. While it's not exactly backed up by Statcast with exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates all close to league average, all to go along with a high amount of groundballs, we did see glimpses of why Long was a highly-regarded prospect.

Long was in the leadoff spot for much of that strong September stretch, which is a good sign of things to come. Long was always able to take a walk during his minor league career, with walk rates consistently around 10% or higher. Those plate discipline skills did seem to translate in his first taste of the Majors with a decent enough 9.5% walk rate. That's a good enough mark to be the likely leadoff option for the Mariners in 2020, where he should be able to score plenty of runs, as well as steal a few bases. This could make him a sneaky-valuable option this season in deep leagues.

While Long is not someone you need to run out and draft with a 422 ADP per NFBC, but a hot start to the season could make him a player that quickly gets scooped off the wire. He should be a player that is on your watch list for the early portion of the year and could be worth a look with a strong start.

Edwin Rios (1B, LAD)

September Stats: 10 G, 13 PA, .250/.307/.750 .418 wOBA, 164 wRC+

This is a little bit of a wild card pick, and yes, it is a small sample of just 13 September plate appearances, but Edwin Rios smoked the ball whenever he got the opportunity last season. In 56 overall plate appearances with the Dodgers, Rios had an overall .277/.393/.617 slash line. While it's not likely to be sustainable, Rios' hitting ability has never been in question.

The former 2015 sixth-round pick has always had good minor-league start lines, even before the juiced Triple-A ball made its appearance in 2019. He's only had a minor league wRC+ below 100 once and that was back in rookie ball in his first season in 2015. Looking at his Statcast metrics, there aren't many conclusions that can be drawn from a small sample of 56 plate appearances. Rios' 95 miles-per-hour average exit velocity stands out; while it's unlikely to translate over a full season, it shows that he has the capability to hit the ball hard and at least deserves to be on the radar.

His main weakness as a hitter comes from the heavy amount of strikeouts, as he's had a 30% or higher strikeout rate in his two seasons in AAA. He had a whopping 37.5% mark in the Majors in 2019, which may limit how useful a player he can be. Rios' strong batted-ball skills should still keep him around in the future.

Of course, the Dodgers have so much depth that it could limit his playing time. Rios does have an advantage as a left-handed hitter, which makes him the strong side of a platoon. With a universal DH likely for 2020, Rios could get a fair portion of those at-bats. With a good performance, he could get near-everyday playing time, which would make him fantasy relevant in 2020.

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