March Madness Bubble Report - March 9th, 2020

March 9, 2020

Nick Federline's report on March Madness bubble teams as of 3/9/20. He analyzes recent CBB games, and predicts what is needed to secure NCAA tournament bids.

March Madness is approaching fast, and bracketologists around the nation are scrambling to perfect their predictions and project what field of teams the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 15, 2020.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive, and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 353 Division I teams. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below, we will take a look at the movement on the bubble and see what teams need to accomplish in order to further secure their bids to the Big Dance.

Marquette

With a strong NET ranking, no losses to Quad-3 or 4 teams, and the 6th most difficult schedule in the country, Marquette's status in the field is relatively safe on Selection Sunday. Star senior guard Markus Howard has proven the ability to singlehandedly take over games and will the Golden Eagles to wins, but his supporting cast has been lackluster over the past month.

Marquette ended the regular season on a three-game losing streak and a sub-.500 Big East conference record. While they will hear their name announced on Selection Sunday, the seed line will likely be disappointing when compared to early season expectations and the team will need to turn things around quickly if they want to avoid being one-and-done in the tournament.

Status: Stock down (Projected #9 seed)

Utah State

Utah State became arguably the biggest winner from bubble teams in the past week when senior guard Sam Merrill drained a late three-pointer to give the Aggies the upset victory over San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game.

The Aggies will be a difficult first-round matchup, as they have a fearsome duo of Merrill paired with Portuguese sophomore center Neemias Queta, for whom NBA scouts have been a mainstay in Logan, Utah. Another breakout sophomore to keep an eye on is the 6-foot-7 Justin Bean, one of the best pound-for-pound rebounders in the country who makes opponents pay if they try double-teaming Queta.

Status: Automatic berth clinched (Projected #10 seed)

Indiana

The Hoosiers hold a very bubbly resume which largely hinges on the strength of a December 3rd home win over Florida State. The strength of schedule is buoyed by the Big Ten's strength this season, but Coach Archie Miller's team has won only 2 games away from home, a statistic that will sound the alarm for the Selection Committee.

Miller, who compared the art of bracketology to the children's show Sesame Street, has a team that has dropped two of its past three and will need to avoid a loss in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament to Nebraska.

Status: Stock down (Projected #11 seed)

Stephen F. Austin (SFA)

The Lumberjacks play in the Southland Conference, a league that has never sent more than one school to the NCAA Tournament in the same year. The uphill battle that SFA is pursuing is fully reliant on the strength of their November road win over Duke and a gaudy 25-3 record entering the Southland Conference tournament.

The biggest problem for Coach Kyle Keller's team is that every hypothetical Southland tournament opponent would be a Quad-3 or Quad-4 opponent, meaning a loss would add a second bad stain to the resume alongside a 1-point road loss to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. SFA should be heavily favored to win their tournament, but it looks like they will need to in order to join the Big Dance.

Status: Stock up (Projected #12 seed)

North Carolina State (NC State)

In a down season for the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), no team had clearly emerged as a clear bubble contender past the top four teams until recently. The Wolfpack have key wins over Duke and Wisconsin, but also have lost twice to Quad-3 opponents. After being left on the outside of the bracket last year largely due to a weak non-conference schedule, Coach Kevin Keatts went out and challenged his team with games against Wisconsin, UNC-Greensboro, and Memphis in the non-conference schedule.

If the Wolfpack can get past the winner of the Pitt-Wake Forest winner, a rematch with Duke will await that would go a long way to making Wolfpack fans a little bit more comfortable on Selection Sunday.

Status: Stock up (Projected #12 seed/Last Four In)

East Tennessee State (ETSU)

Coach Steve Forbes joined East Tennessee State as its Head Coach in 2015 and has an impressive 127-43 record in his four successful seasons. The Buccaneers have a quality win at LSU and swept conference rival UNC-Greensboro to boost the resume. While the 25-4 record and 40th NET ranking suggest this team should be in the field, the path ahead may indicate otherwise.

Both Furman and UNC-Greensboro, the two chief contenders for the Southern Conference title, were upset by Wofford and Chattanooga respectively. Having dispatched of Western Carolina in the semifinals, ETSU will have a chance to seal its own fate with a win tonight over Wofford in the Southern Conference Championship game.

Status: Stock unchanged (Projected #10 seed)

Projected Bracket

Below is my projected full bracket. The last four teams in the field (in order) are projected to be Cincinnati, UCLA, Xavier, and NC State. The first four teams out of the field in the projection are (in order) Wichita State, Stanford, Rhode Island, and Northern Iowa. Automatic qualifiers are indicated in all caps.

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

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