March Madness Bubble Report - March 2

March 2, 2020

Nick Federline's report on the March Madness bubble teams. He analyzes activity from teams over the past week and looks ahead at what some bubble teams will need to accomplish to secure their bid.

March Madness is approaching fast, and bracketologists around the nation are scrambling to perfect their predictions and project what field of teams the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose on Sunday, March 15, 2020.

One of the most prominent metrics that the Selection Committee uses in determining the bracket is the NCAA's NET ranking. The NET ranking uses the strength of schedule, scoring margins, offensive, and defensive efficiencies, and locations of the games to rank the 353 Division I teams. Determining what quadrant a game falls into depends on the team's opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home game opponent ranking 1-30, Neutral site 1-50, Away game 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home game 31-75, Neutral site 51-100, Away game 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home game 76-160, Neutral site 101-200, Away game 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home game 161-353, Neutral site 201-353, Away game 241-353

Below, we will take a look at the movement on the bubble and see what teams need to accomplish in order to further secure their bids to the Big Dance.

Oklahoma

Coach Lon Kruger has taken the Sooners to the NCAA Tournament in six of his first eight seasons as the Head Coach in Norman, Oklahoma, and it is looking rather likely to make another appearance this year. A recent push, including a pair of dominant wins over Texas Tech and West Virginia this past week, has moved the Sooners up to the 10-seed line. Oklahoma finishes the season at home against a surging Texas team, and on the road against TCU. The Sooners appear to be moving towards a safe position in the field avoiding a total collapse this week.

Status: Stock up (Projected #10 seed)

Texas

Texas has one of the most polarizing resumes on the bubble this season. Entering last week, the Longhorns had only two Quad-1 wins and sported a 16-11 overall record. Following wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech this week, Coach Shaka Smart's Longhorns now have a 4-7 record in Quad-1 games and, more importantly, have zero losses to Quad-3 and Quad-4 teams. While it may not be a must-win game, Texas' resume could get a huge boost with a win on Tuesday at Oklahoma.

Status: Stock up (Projected - First Four Out)

Cincinnati

The Bearcats have dropped two of their past three games and endured a long four-game stretch in February with tight overtime matches in each. Coach John Brannen has kept his team on the bubble in his first year, but the overtime losses to UConn and UCF are not helping the resume. Cincinnati is ranked 53rd in the NET rankings, being held down by four Quad-3 losses and a 2-5 record in Quad-1 games. Yesterday they lost their best opportunity for a huge win, being manhandled by Houston. A win in either of the two remaining games against South Florida and Temple won't help the Bearcats feel any safer on Selection Sunday, and they may need to win a few games in the American Athletic Conference tournament. If there is one redeeming quality that cannot be affected by what is yet to come, the Bearcats challenged themselves in non-conference with a top-30 schedule, a quality that the Committee certainly will like to see.

Status: Stock down (Projected - First Four Out)

Rutgers

As a byproduct of the strong Big Ten, Rutgers may appear to have a better NET ranking than the seed it will receive. Rutgers is 3-9 in Quad-1 games and can claim a home victory over Seton Hall as its best non-conference win. Rutgers has only one road win all season, over Nebraska who is sitting in the Big Ten cellar. The Scarlet Knights still have upcoming games at home against Maryland and at Purdue, so the opportunities are present to give themselves a little bit of breathing room on the bubble. If the Scarlet Knights are able to get into the field, their 1-8 road record will be a reason to fade them early on.

Status: Stock down (Projected - #11 seed/Last Four In)

Stanford

With a NET ranking of 30, Stanford is the highest-ranked team according to the NET metrics that reside on the wrong side of the bubble in my projection. The Cardinal does have five Quad-1 wins and only one Quad-3 loss at California. Yesterday's home win over Colorado gave this team a huge boost, and they are inching closer towards a tournament berth. This upcoming week gives them two Quad-1 win opportunities with road games at Oregon and Oregon State.

Status: Stock up, (Projected - First Four Out)

Tulsa

Tulsa is not a bubble team. They are ranked 83rd in the NET rankings and has racked up a 20-9 record full of Quad-3 and Quad-4 wins and Quad-1 and Quad-2 losses. However, the Golden Hurricane find themselves in sole possession of first-place in the American Athletic Conference, which would give them ideal seeding for the conference tournament. Tulsa would need to win its conference tournament, something it has proven it could do with a 12-4 conference record. They are projected in the field below as a result of their status as a conference leader but could lose in the conference tournament, affording a spot to Wichita State or another bubble contender.

Status: Stock up, but would need to win AAC Tournament (Projected AAC automatic qualifier)

Wichita State

Coach Gregg Marshall's team is yet another bubble team lacking a truly impressive win and relying more on the lack of bad losses on its resume. Wichita State sports an impressive 21-7 record, with all 7 losses to Quad-1 and Quad-2 teams. The Shockers do have an upcoming Quad-1 road game at Memphis which would help their case. The Shockers will be rooting strongly against any potential bid thieves and may need a few wins in the conference tournament to solidify their spot in the field.

Status: Stock down (Projected - First Four Out)

Below is my projected full bracket. The last four teams in the field (in order) are projected to be USC, Richmond, Providence, and Rutgers. The first four teams out of the field in the projection are (in order) Stanford, Wichita State, Cincinnati, and Texas. Automatic qualifiers are indicated in all caps.

Stay tuned for our weekly update on the bubble each week before Selection Sunday.

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