RADIO
This may shock you, but fantasy baseball writers are not infallible. Sometimes we're incredibly wrong on a guy, and there's a written record to prove it. We also make the same mistakes everyone else makes. For example, I recently had to fill a Util-slot at the end of a draft. I needed power, so I sorted the remaining players by HR. Eugenio Suarez topped the list with 26 HR. Who is Eugenio Suarez?
That said, the work of fantasy baseball writers can make your own research easier to digest. We may also offer a perspective that you never would have thought of on your own. For example, most owners view Carlos Correa as the second best player on the best team in baseball. What if I told you that you want him nowhere near your fantasy team?
I now have two Suarez shares and counting, so he's discussed with Correa below.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN) ADP: 200.2
Suarez was quietly solid last season, slashing .260/.367/.461 with 26 bombs and four steals. He was caught five times trying to steal, so Suarez should be drafted for pop and a reasonable batting average in 2018.
Suarez bested his career 13.2% HR/FB with a 17.9% mark last year. His power is roughly league average, as his FB% (37.1%), Pull% on fly balls (19.3%), average airborne exit velocity (91.4 mph), and rate of Brls/BBE (6.9%) are in line with Suarez's resume and the league's averages. The right-handed 26-year old takes full advantage of his home park (106 HR factor), clubbing 21 of his 26 bombs last year at home.
That profile might look risky from a fantasy perspective, but the stars have aligned in his favor. Once seen as a placeholder for top prospect Nick Senzel, the Reds made Suarez one of their building blocks with a seven-year, $66 million contract extension this offseason. The plan now seems to be both Suarez and Senzel getting a look at shortstop with the team, a plan that would give Suarez valuable dual-eligibility in fantasy.
The team's new commitment to their third baseman also includes a promotion in the batting order. He currently projects to bat cleanup, a slot that figures to produce plenty of RBI behind OBP-machine Joey Votto. Suarez only has league-average power, but it will play up dramatically thanks to a favorable home park and lineup position.
It wouldn't be enough if Suarez figured to torpedo your average, but he shouldn't. He mastered the strike zone last year, increasing his BB% from a career mark of 9% to 13.3% thanks to a 24.2% chase rate. He's now patient enough (42.1% Swing%) to strikeout more often (23.3% K%) than his SwStr% (9.6%) suggests he should, but it's not as bad as a lot of other players on the board.
Suarez also figures to have some BABIP upside. Last year's .309 mark was just shy of his career .315, largely because his grounders were terrible (.171 vs. .240 career). Their average exit velocity was roughly the same (82 mph vs. 82.8 in 2016) and he crushed the shift (.309), so a rebound should be expected.
Suarez is likely to give back some of those extra BABIP points when his LD% regresses (24% last year vs. 22.2% career), but his liners didn't fare as well last year either (.699 BABIP vs. .726 career). His fly balls exceeded their career norms (.175 vs. .133 career) despite an uptick in IFFB% (11% vs. 8.3% career), so it's possible some of his liners were classified incorrectly as fly balls. Regardless, Suarez should be able to hit .260 again.
Suarez's role is more valuable than Suarez himself, but value is value. He's the perfect hitter to round out your Opening Day fantasy lineup!
Verdict: Champ
Carlos Correa (SS, HOU) ADP: 13.5
Correa was amazing in 2017 considering he missed time with a thumb injury, slashing .315/.391/.550 with 24 big flies over 481 PAs. It's easy to see why fantasy owners are buying him as a borderline first-rounder. Unfortunately, both his elite average and power production are at risk of regression in 2018.
His average was probably a bigger deal last year, so let's start there. His BB% (11% vs. 10.7%) and K% (19.1% vs. 19.6%) were both in line with his career marks, so nothing changed there. His .352 BABIP towered over his career .326 mark, however. The difference was primarily on Correa's ground balls.
Over his career, Correa's grounders have an above average BABIP of .263. Last season, they had a BABIP of .331. Correa has above average raw speed, averaging 27.8 ft./sec per Statcast Sprint Speed last year. He doesn't pull anywhere near enough grounders to care about the shift. There's still no way he's hitting .331 on grounders again.
It might be different if his contact quality improved, but it did the opposite. Correa's average ground ball exit velocity of 86.7 mph was lower than both his 2016 (88.5 mph) and 2015 (87.4 mph) marks. It was still above average, and Correa has the skills necessary to exceed the league's .241 BABIP on the ground. His 2018 BABIP will be closer to .320 than .350 though.
One of the skills driving that BABIP is a low FB% (31.7% last year, 27.4% in 2016). As regular readers know, it's very hard to expect 30 or more bombs from a guy with a low FB%. Correa's 22.6% HR/FB was roughly in line with his career mark of 20.8%, but his peripheral stats suggest that it could be headed south.
Correa's average airborne exit velocity (94.9 mph) was very good, but his rate of Brls/BBE (9.3%) was only above average. The latter mark was a career best for him, so fantasy owners can't expect regression to a previous mean to up Correa's power projection. Finally, Correa is allergic to pulled fly balls (13.8% career, 12.3% last year). Add it all up, and it's not hard to see a lower HR total at all.
Correa also lost his running game last year, pilfering just two bags after 14 and 13 in the previous two campaigns. Now the starting SS on a World Champion team, it seems unlikely that Correa decides to run again in the immediate future.
Correa still projects as an excellent fantasy asset as the SS-eligible cleanup hitter for a strong lineup, but the middle infield positions aren't the black hole of fantasy production they used to be. His batting average is going down, and it'll take a swing adjustment to generate the power to replace it. He doesn't run anymore either, making the first or second round too expensive of a price to pay.
Verdict: Chump
