Some fantasy managers like to go heavy SP in their drafts with mixed results. Hitting flush on elite SP is normally not too challenging, but making sure you get value for that same SP can be the difference between winning and losing your league. The key here, then, is to target the right high-end SPs, and avoid the ones who might look good but are due for regression.

The following players are a few highly touted pitchers who will disappoint owners in 2016

Zack Greinke (ARZ)

Greinke had one of the best statistical seasons by any pitcher in any era in 2015 while helping the Los Angeles Dodgers win the NL West. He has since taken his talents to Arizona where he is the clear ace in town that will be expected to produce like a true #1.

He makes this list for a few different reasons but the main reason is if you are buying Greinke in 2016 based on his 2015 performance that is your first real mistake. Last season's stats in the end have very little bearing on the next season's results. They merely make expectations and projections that you the owner have to take into consideration. Here is a list of accomplishments Greinke will not reproduce for the Diamondbacks in 2016:

• .864 winning percentage
• 1.66 ERA
• .84 WHIP
• 2.76 FIP
• .185 BAA

 
Those were all career bests that will not be duplicated. Enjoy them here and then get them out of your mind for 2016.

Greinke did provide a 5:1 K:BB ratio last season which could still be sustainable but his HR/9 and his ERA+ should both be significantly affected by the move to Chase Field which has become a hitters paradise. His lineup should provide adequate run support leading to some wins. But overall, Greinke would need to repeat his 2014/2015 to warrant all the draft capital being spent on him. He is going to be drafted like a SP1 when in reality he is going to be more of a SP2 value. I sense a let down coming for Greinke and that big contract he just got will seem like a distant memory.

Gio Gonzalez (WAS)

After a crushing 2015 campaign that saw his BABIP rise to a disturbing .341, Gio Gonzalez is still trying to capture his 2012 magic all these years later.

It does not seem to help that his BB were up and his K were down despite keeping his velocity. Since his 2012 campaign he has failed to have an FIP and ERA below 3.00. His groundball rate was above 50% which was a pleasant surprise but he also gave up a 29% Hard Contact rate which became a source of a ton of issues.

The Nationals should be a better team this year but wins are ultimately undependable. With a declining strikeout rate, a lack of a dominant strikeout pitch, and an increased walk rate, the 2016 campaign for Gio Gonzalez does not look bright and will not result in a bounceback season like some owners are hoping for.

Scott Kazmir (LAD)

In what is already a troubling start for the Dodgers, injuries have swept through their clubhouse leaving a handful of regulars ready to go for the start of the season. This means a bigger burden upon the arm of Scott Kazmir who is expected to be a solid #2/#3 starter for LA.

Kazmir's HR/FB ratio creeped above 10% again to go along with his near 4.00 FIP. His BABIP dropped to a .273 last year while maintaing a sub 3 BB/9. The K's are going to be an issue for him again this year and he appears to look 42 instead of 32 after all the wear and tear he has gone through. After implementing a cut fastball and straying away from his slider it would suggest that he has found new life for his career. However a dip in velocity could spell doom for Kazmir given he is going to have to be a stalwart for the Dodgers in the early going.

Buying late into Kazmir might be okay but relying on him to produce at a #2 level is simply not seeing the forest from the trees.

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