NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 17) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

December 25, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season. As we head into the final two weeks of the season, 10 teams have now officially locked up a playoff spot. Three others sit at a 94% chance or better to get in: Texans (99%), Packers (96%), and Steelers (94%), leaving most of the intrigue centered on playoff seeding and the NFC South.

Christmas week of the NFL season has arrived, and we aren't quite as lucky with the trio of games on Christmas Day as we were on Thanksgiving. The Saturday games look great, headlined by a rematch of last year's AFC Wild Card game between the Texans and Chargers, and Sunday also features a handful of matchups that should generate plenty of headlines.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in my picks for each game and rank them based on my confidence level in the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats as well as historical trends on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 17.

Week 17 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The projected winners are italicized.

16 - Denver at Kansas City

The Chiefs enter the Christmas night game as 13.5-point home underdogs, the largest spread they've ever faced at home in franchise history. Chris Oladokun will make his first career start against the best defense in the league this season, by success rate (38.7%).

15 - New England at New York Jets

This matchup features one of the largest disparities in QB play we've seen all season. Undrafted rookie Brady Cook ranks 45th out of 45 QBs in EPA/play (-0.364) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (-8.7%), while Drake Maye is third in EPA/play (0.260) and first in CPOE (+9.4%). On the other side, the Jets defense has been equally disastrous, while New England is close to getting its best defensive player back in DT Milton Williams (ankle). The Patriots still have a 37% chance of winning home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

14 - Dallas at Washington

The first matchup on Christmas Day is a doozy. Josh Johnson is starting again for the Washington Commanders in Week 17, seven years after he started for Washington in Week 17 of the 2018 season. It's been that kind of season for the Commanders. That's not even mentioning how abysmal Washington's defense has been, which allowed 44 points to the Cowboys back in Week 7. Both defenses have been nightmarish, but Dallas' potent offense should have its way on Thursday.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 17 Pick 'Em Pools

13 - Detroit at Minnesota

Detroit suffered a home loss to the Steelers last week in a controversial finish, all but ending its playoff hopes as it now sits at just a 4% chance to make the playoffs one year after its best season in franchise history. We'll get to watch another third-string QB on Christmas Day, with Max Brosmer filling in for an injured J.J. McCarthy. Brosmer started in Week 13 at Seattle and became the first rookie QB since Zach Wilson to throw four interceptions and take four sacks.

12 - Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta

The Rams lost a heartbreaker last week versus Seattle to essentially decide the top seed in the NFC. This matchup features two 37-year-old QBs who have faced off seven times over the years, with Kirk Cousins holding a 5-2 edge in head-to-head. The past four meetings have produced combined point totals of 53, 72, 54, and 72. With Matthew Stafford playing at an MVP level and Cousins still capable with an elite trio of weapons, there should be plenty of fireworks in store for the final Monday Night Football game of the regular season.

11 - Jacksonville at Indianapolis

The Colts' magical season effectively came to an end the last time these teams played just three weeks ago. They've now lost five in a row. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have continued their ascent as one of the best teams in the AFC and look like a true contender in a wide-open conference. The Jags should roll against an Indianapolis defense that's fallen apart, but it's a treat to watch Philip Rivers sling the rock again.

10 -  Seattle at Carolina

Sam Darnold's revenge game. This marks his second revenge game this season after facing Minnesota in Week 13, and the fourth of his career, facing the Jets once with Carolina and once with the Vikings. He's a perfect 3-0 in those matchups so far, but coming off an emotional win last week against the Rams, it can be challenging to match that intensity the following week.

Sam Darnold wasn’t in the top 10 of fan voting for the Pro Bowl, which means it was coaches and fellow players — with each counting for one third of the vote — who made the difference in the QB getting in for the second straight year.

Darnold called it a “team award.” pic.twitter.com/kghABXeWnx

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) December 23, 2025

Carolina still has work to do to secure the division even after beating Tampa Bay last week. It has been a dragon slayer all season, and this matchup could serve as a preview of a Wild Card showdown in a few weeks.

9 - Tampa Bay at Miami

Tampa Bay has squandered multiple opportunities to lock down the division. Baker Mayfield continues to struggle, while Todd Bowles' defense has also melted down over the past five games, ranking 31st in success rate (49.3%). But Miami is starting rookie seventh-rounder Quinn Ewers again this week, so the Bucs should take care of business.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 17

8 - Cincinnati vs. Arizona

This game is tied for the highest total of the week at 52.5, and rightfully so. Both teams should be expected to air it out. Jacoby Brissett is in the midst of an eight-game span with 336 pass attempts (42 per game). The only other QB to throw that many passes in an eight-game span in the last two seasons is Joe Burrow, with 350 in Weeks 10-18 last season. The game has zero stakes with both teams eliminated, but it could be a lot of fun.

7 - Green Bay vs. Baltimore

The Packers inexplicably blew last Saturday's game to the Chicago Bears to essentially lose the NFC North title. There's still a lot of uncertainty for both teams' QB situation, with Jordan Love (concussion), Malik Willis (shoulder), and Lamar Jackson (back) all picking up injuries last week. Assuming Jackson is good to go, Baltimore is in a good position as Jackson owns a 25-3 career record against NFC teams and is 14-1 on the road.

6 - Pittsburgh at Cleveland

This AFC North matchup, predictably, has the lowest total of the week at 33.5. A big story of last week's pivotal win in Detroit was the Pittsburgh defense holding the Lions to just 15 rushing yards, the lowest in any game since Week 4 of the 2022 season. Cleveland has won five of its last six games at home versus the Steelers, and could play spoiler again here in Week 17.

.@AaronRodgers12 told @KENNETHGAINWEL to run a go route in the backfield...

and then he made one of the best plays of the year.@insidetheNFL Week 16 Mic'd Up on X pic.twitter.com/EWC0Pmg3js

— NFL (@NFL) December 23, 2025

5 - New Orleans at Tennessee

This marks the third rookie QB duel of the season, and the second game in a row for Tyler Shough after facing Brady Cook last week. Shough has arguably been the most impressive rookie QB this season, while Cam Ward has still shown plenty of flashes and improvement recently in a poor environment in Tennessee.

4 - San Francisco vs. Chicago

Both teams locked up playoff spots this week, but still have a lot to play for on Sunday Night Football. San Francisco's offense is firmly a wagon, fresh off the 10th-best offensive output of the season by EPA/play (+0.36) on Monday night in Indianapolis.

Chicago delivered one of the most improbable wins of the season to knock off the divisional rival Green Bay Packers in Week 16. The defense keeps creating turnovers, but still isn't good enough to hang with an offense that is cooking like the 49ers are right now. San Francisco became the first team in NFL history to score 80 points or more without punting over a two-game span.

3 - Las Vegas vs. New York Giants

The battle for the No. 1 overall pick. The game began on Wednesday with the Raiders placing star tight end Brock Bowers (knee) on injured reserve seemingly out of nowhere. The Giants have looked lifeless under interim head coach Mike Kafka, while the Raiders nearly pulled off the road upset against one of the best teams in the AFC last week. Flip a coin for this one, though.

2 - Buffalo vs. Philadelphia

Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts face off for the second time in their careers. They'll forever be linked by their historic goal-line production, with Allen ranking first all-time among QBs with 77 rushing touchdowns, while Hurts ranks third with 63.

Their one matchup in Philadelphia in 2023 was a thriller, with Buffalo leading for the vast majority of the game, but the Eagles pulled it out in overtime after Hurts ran in a touchdown from 12 yards to get the Eagles to 10-1. Of course, that season went up in flames directly after that game, with the Eagles losing five of the last six regular-season games and then getting embarrassed by Tampa Bay in the Wild Card game.

1 - Houston at Los Angeles Chargers

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Wild Card game, where the Texans cruised to a 32-12 win and gave Justin Herbert nightmares, picking him off a career-high four times and sacking him another four times.

Pass protection composite ratings pic.twitter.com/HCAaOEALlz

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 17, 2025

Both defenses are playing at elite levels, with the Chargers ranking second in EPA/play (-0.158) and the Texans ranking seventh (-0.097) over the last five games. The Texans' pass rush versus this version of the Chargers offensive line is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. Herbert has been a miracle worker all season, but this will be his biggest test on Saturday afternoon.

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