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Justin Carter's NASCAR Cup Series DFS picks for the AdventHealth 400. Check out his DFS sleepers and top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for the AdventHealth 400 (2025).
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway this weekend for the final race before the All-Star Race. Last year, Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher in this race by 0.001 seconds, the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.
Will we get the sequel to that this year? The two drivers qualified first and second for Sunday's race, so they'll at least be close together when the green flag flies, even if they probably won't break their 2024 record at the checkered flag.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the AdventHealth 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 5/11/2025 at 3:11 p.m. EDT. If you have further questions or want to discuss racing, you can find me on X at @juscarts.
DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Kyle Larson
Starts First - DK: $11K, FD: $14K
In qualifying, Kyle Larson was the only driver to run a sub-29.04-second lap, clocking it around Kansas Speedway in 29.391 seconds to earn the pole.
Larson has been really good at Kansas, winning here twice, and he's been especially good in the spring race. In the last three spring visits to Kansas Speedway, Larson has finished second, second, and first, and he'd led double-digit laps in each of those races.
KYLE LARSON BEATS CHRIS BUESCHER BY 0.000! pic.twitter.com/SBVvtzAcUC
— Darian Gilliam (@BlackFlagMatter) May 6, 2024
He's had a little bit of bad luck at times, including finishing 26th here in the fall after he had an early incident that brought out a Lap 20 caution, but overall, Larson is fast at this race track. That shouldn't change on Sunday.
There's a reason that Larson is the most expensive driver on this slate and the betting favorite.
Denny Hamlin
Starts 14th - DK: $10.2K, FD: $12.5K
I think if you're looking in this price range—another top-priced driver who isn't Kyle Larson—then you have two really good options: William Byron and Denny Hamlin.
You likely can't go wrong with either, barring a crash or mechanical issue on one of the cars. However, I slightly lean toward Hamlin, and not just because he's got seven extra place differential points available.
Hamlin has four wins at this track and has been on a really strong run here lately, with seven consecutive top 10. He led 71 laps in this race one year ago before finishing fourth, marking the third Kansas race in a row he led double-digit laps.
The bigger concern with Hamlin is that he's had some issues on mile-and-a-half tracks this year, finishing 25th at Vegas and then blowing an engine at Texas last week. That's just two races though. Don't let the small sample size sway your lineup decisions. Hamlin's really good at Kansas.
Kyle Busch
Starts 35th - DK: $8.3K, FD: $8K
Alright, now let's focus a bit on how this race has a handful of really, really good place differential plays.
We start with Kyle Busch, who will start way back in 35th after making contact with the wall during his qualifying run:
Kyle Busch’s team works to repair his car after he got into the wall during qualifying. #NASCAR #AdventHealth400 pic.twitter.com/oXER1R8dnG
— Daniel McFadin (@danielmcfadin) May 10, 2025
Busch showed decent speed in practice, going 22nd quickest during the session. Don't expect him to drive all the way from the back to the front, but Busch should be able to maneuver his way into the top half of the field.
This No. 8 team has finished in the top 10 in half the Kansas races since Busch joined at the start of the 2023 season, nd he led 26 laps here last fall before finishing 19th.
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— brent buckner (@tenndolly2) August 7, 2023
Ryan Preece
Starts 30th - DK: $7.1K, FD: 5.8K
There were numerous questions about why RFK Racing signed Ryan Preece this offseason to pilot the team's third car, and so far those questions are still lingering, but maybe not as intensely.
Preece has three top 10s already, over halfway to his 2024 total despite the season not even being at the one-third point quite yet.
The last four races haven't been kind to Preece, as he's finished 20th or worse in each race. This stretch has really killed a lot of his early momentum, and he's dropped from 13th to 19th in points over this span.
Preece was third at Vegas earlier this year and followed that up with a ninth-place finish at Homestead, showcasing some solid speed on intermediate tracks.
Now, he was slow in practice as well, which is worth keeping in mind. It's quite possible Preece is slow at the green flag and still slow when the checkered flag flies. But at this price, I'm willing to take that risk due to the place differential upside.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 36th - DK: $7.0K, FD: $7.2K
Consider this more of a DraftKings play than a FanDuel play, because Brad Keselowski feels a little pricy at $7.2K considering his recent lack of production. I'd rather grab Carson Hocevar (FD: $6.8K) or even go super cheap with Ty Dillon (FD: $3.2K) over there.
But $7.0K on DraftKings feels like a good price point for Brad K this week. Sure, he's been very, very slow this season, to the point where there have been legitimate concerns about whether Keselowski has hit that wall that older veterans eventually all hit.
Brad Keselowski and the no good, very bad year.
Hate this for that team. pic.twitter.com/8uyyXCa4zI
— Taylor Kitchen (@_TaylorKitchen_) May 4, 2025
However, 36th is a really deep starting spot. Like, it's 10 spots deeper than Keselowski's average finish this season, so you can see right away that there's place differential upside.
It also doesn't hurt that Keselowski has a strong track record here, winning twice at this track. And while a lot of that success was during his Penske tenure, he's run well here recently too, albeit the results don't necessarily show that.
Keselowski has just one top 10 in six starts here since buying into the Roush team, but he's led laps in three consecutive Kansas starts and is 6-f0r-6w when it comes to finishing with positive place differential at Kansas.
A.J. Allmendinger
Starts 33rd - DK: $6.1K, FD: $5.0K
Finally, we have another driver who starts in the back: A.J. Allmendinger.
Allmendinger's whole NASCAR reputation is built on road course racing, but that doesn't mean he can't be competitive on ovals. Allmendinger has four top 10s at Kansas in his career, for example.
This season, the No. 16 car has shown good speed on intermediates, with Allmendinger finishing eighth at Las Vegas and seventh at Homestead. He could have had another strong finish last week at Texas after qualifying 10th, but he crashed on Lap 172.
His lack of speed during practice and qualifying this weekend is a concern, but his performance on 1.5-mile tracks this season shows that he's worth playing in DFS.
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