Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - 2025 Outlooks for Jarren Duran, Brenton Doyle, Zach Neto

December 27, 2024

Tim Heaney's biggest fantasy baseball breakouts and draft sleepers. Read the 2025 fantasy baseball outlooks for Jarren Duran, Brenton Doyle, Zach Neto.

The term "breakout player" in fantasy baseball gets thrown around often without context. A breakout should emerge from the swamp of the underrated or flat-out forgotten. Of course, the breakout players you see on MLB lists do not keep the same scope as a fantasy baseball countdown. Fantasy players are already aware of the players simmering below the surface. Targets for this recap of the 2024 breakthrough names ideally consist of players with an average draft position (ADP) of 150 or later.

This list does not aim to include previously hyped prospects who came around quickly… so none of the Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Merrill types who unleashed their lumber in 2024 will be included. Bats who built on standout 2023 stints like Elly De La Cruz and Brent Rooker also will not go under the microscope. I'm also not going to list specialists like Brice Turang, as his fantasy breakout mostly had to do almost singularly with his 50-steal season.

With these parameters in mind, let's honor the batters who broke into our fantasy hearts in 2024.

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Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox

• $32 earned in mixed standard rotisserie | .285/.342/.492, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 111 R, 34 SB (735 PA)

Like others on this list who will be discussed, Duran was primarily a target for stolen bases and batting average in most 2024 drafts. The late bloomer ticked up into the top 100 prospects list several years ago but was not counted on for major leaps in the immediate future until his power breakthrough this past season.

Though his 57.1% No-Doubter Home Run rate on Statcast ranks him tied for 11th overall (ahead of names like Aaron Judge), the 28-year-old typically relies on line drives and groundballs, so his HR/FB would have to take a major leap without significant makeup changes in the immediate future.

On the bright side, Duran should keep his spot atop a BoSox lineup that could improve with aggressive offseason activity. This should position Duran to at least approach the major fantasy advantage of 700-plus plate appearances, barring injury, which should keep his absurd runs-scoring ceiling afloat.

Jarren Duran lead-off dinger pic.twitter.com/QCnklcUxco

— Dillard Barnhart (@BarnHasSpoken2) August 27, 2024

The fact that Duran has sustained a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of at least .302 in all four MLB seasons, including .381 in 2023 and .345 in 2024, means that a higher in-play clip is repeatable and fits his profile. This trait should keep his all-around value afloat even if his homers dip.

Duran believers likely won't have to pay too high a premium for a repeat of this overall line, but drafters may need to construct a build around him to compensate for power that still ranks on the light end of the spectrum for top-100 mixed-league picks.

Brenton Doyle, OF, Colorado Rockies

• $23 earned | .260/.317/.446, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 82 R, 30 SB (603 PA)

Doyle sat into the late rounds of most 2024 fantasy baseball drafts. The 26-year-old boasted many traits that made him a potential steal: his stolen-base talents, home presence at Coors Field, and an elite glove that would keep him on the field and, if he consistently hit, in the lineup.

His all-around sabermetric game, trustworthy batted-ball data, power increase, and 9.6% cut in his strikeout rate down to 25.4% fueled his fantasy success.

432 feet to center on HR No. 20 for Brenton Doyle 💥 pic.twitter.com/eDiikBxlgV

— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2024

Doyle's home-road splits were nearly even with homers (12 at home, 11 elsewhere), but his triple-slash rates took a nosedive during road trips (.211/.271/.364, compared to .313/.365/.534 in the thin air). This contrast is our common poison with Rockies hitters, but the rewards are sweet, especially when the batter can contribute environment-independent stolen bases at a high rate.

While the 26-year-old might dip a bit in power, his park and versatility should allow him to spin something close to his 2024 output in 2025.

Again, you're paying for the total package across all five major fantasy categories; he maintains a high floor across the board, with maybe the lowest being in batting average, which should be where fantasy players should test their luck in the standings anyway.

Zach Neto, SS, Los Angeles Angels

• $21 earned | .249/.318/.443, 23 HR, 77 RBI,70 R, 30 SB (603 PA)

Neto launched just nine homers in 329 plate appearances during his 84-game major-league debut season in 2023. What makes his 2024 stat line more impressive is he compiled it after just 217 minor-league plate appearances and that MLB trial the previous season.

Zach Neto past 24 games:

.333 AVG
5 HR
18 RBI
18 Runs
6 SB

pic.twitter.com/slxUTE6Mx5

— Underdog MLB (@Underdog__MLB) August 8, 2024

Buying into the speed again makes sense: Neto has kept similar stolen-base paces in nearly all of his farm stops and at his 2023 MLB cup of coffee.

One major drawback concerns Neto's power stability. On Statcast, he ranked a modest 116th with only 5.6 barrels per plate appearance and tied for 236th with just a 29% launch angle sweet-spot rate. His swing has holes and doesn't match the more common power sources' batted-ball data.

Could the infielder again change his swing in the offseason to solidify his future? Any whispers of him tweaking his stance should make drafters more interested in buying high, but I'm not sure I trust the Angels to work with him on how to sustain success (even if Mike Trout were to counsel him personally).

Fantasy players aiming to invest in Neto for 2025 should expect at least a slight delay in their returns. The nearly 24-year-old underwent right shoulder surgery in early November and could miss time to start next season.

This extra hurdle, on top of his questionable long-term power ceiling, might drive his price down. Anyone interested should consider when risk aversion gives way to chasing upside, particularly with stolen bases at middle infield.

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