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Ryan Larrison identifies wide receivers whose target share is set to increase, making them fantasy football risers and WR draft sleepers.
Vacated targets are a great stat to look at when attempting to pinpoint what wide receivers could be getting a massive increase in target share for the upcoming season. However, just because targets become vacated does not mean they all go to the wide receiver position or even the specific player you want.
It's better to target players who will see their snaps increase or one who will replace another who has departed from a prominent role to be confident in their target share truly increasing.
Today, I will list three players whose market share of targets is bound to increase and explain why it will happen.
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Allen Lazard - Green Bay Packers
With Davante Adams now in Las Vegas, the role of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' top target has become available. Enter Allen Lazard. The fifth-year wide receiver has been showered with praise by Rodgers this offseason and is the clear front runner to be the new number one target in Green Bay.
Aaron Rodgers on Allen Lazard: “He’s been our dirty work guy for most of his career here. Now he’s getting an opportunity to be a No. 1 receiver. I’m not worried about him at all stepping into that role.”
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) June 8, 2022
Not only did the departure of Adams vacate 169 targets, but there were 248 vacated in total. The passing volume of the Green Bay offense is bound to come down a bit, but Rodgers has a habit of hyper-targeting his top receiver over the years, and this year, that player will be Lazard. After receiving only 60 targets in 2021, Lazard will look to double that total in 2022 and could easily end up with more than double.
There has been some hype surrounding rookie wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but rookie receivers do not have the best track record when Rodgers throws them the ball for fantasy purposes. It took two years for Adams to become fantasy-relevant, and Jordy Nelson did not break out until year four.
Lazard is the clear top receiving threat for the Packers. The slew of veterans and rookies will fight for the scraps behind him, and history has shown that if Rodgers favors you over the rest of your teammates, you will be rewarded with a massive target share. Lazard will not be as valuable a fantasy asset as Adams was in Green Bay, but he will be a solid fantasy contributor.
Rashod Bateman - Baltimore Ravens
While the Baltimore Ravens offense is run-centric, there were 267 targets vacated over this past offseason. More importantly, Marquise Brown was traded to the Arizona Cardinals this past April, leaving the top wide receiver role open for Rashod Bateman to occupy.
Brown saw 146 targets in 2021, finishing with the second most on the team behind only tight end Mark Andrews. Bateman will now inherit the high target share, improving on the 68 he had last season during his 12-game run by a high amount.
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman caught one red-zone TD in 12 games last year.
Bateman will see the ball a lot more inside the 20-yard line this year and should get many of the opportunities that went to Marquise Brown (15 red zone targets in 2021). pic.twitter.com/datBD9hSfn
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) August 25, 2022
The passing volume in Baltimore was increased last season due to a slew of injuries at the running back position and the loss of quarterback Lamar Jackson for five games. However, there are so many vacated targets that Bateman should easily double his total from last season as the leading receiver for the Ravens.
Baltimore favors heavily targeting the tight end position and their top wide receiver. With the top competition for Bateman being Devin Duvernay and James Proche II, there is little reason to worry that he will have trouble clearing 125 targets in 2022. Even in a low pass-volume offense, Bateman is poised to see a massive increase in both targets and fantasy value.
Gabe Davis - Buffalo Bills
Gabe Davis may not be inheriting the role as the top receiver for his team like Lazard or Bateman, but he is stepping into a role where his target share will increase exponentially. Emmanuel Sanders did not resign with Buffalo this offseason, and the coaching staff has said they are comfortable with Davis as the starter opposite Stefon Diggs.
A total of 199 targets have been vacated in Buffalo. However, the departure of Cole Beasley accounts for 112 of those targets, meaning a good chunk will be distributed to the slot. That said, the starting wideout opposite Diggs has averaged 119.5 targets over the past two seasons. That number combines the targets John Brown and Davis saw in 2020 and the targets Sanders and Davis saw last season.
Davis will not have to share nearly as many snaps with another receiver as Brown and Sanders did. The depth chart behind him consists of rookie Khalil Shakir, Marquez Stevenson, and Jake Kumerow. The Bills know they have an ascending talent in Davis and are prepared to make him the second read for quarterback Josh Allen.
4 TOUCHDOWNS FOR GABE DAVIS.
The #UCF product becomes the first ever player to catch four touchdowns in a single #NFL playoff game. pic.twitter.com/mBmzyY593S
— Jason Beede (@therealBeede) January 24, 2022
After a record-breaking playoff performance against the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this year, Davis is primed to see his career-high 63 targets in 2021 nearly double in 2022. Since he is in one of the league's premier passing offenses, it will equate to massive fantasy success, even if he is not the top wide receiver for Buffalo.
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