Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - wOBACON For Week 12

June 27, 2022

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose HR/FB%could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 12.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. I wrote about the expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) for the first article of the season. This week, I will choose a similar metric: weighted on-base average on contact, or wOBACON.

wOBA is used to establish the value a player brings per plate appearance using unintentional walks, base hits, and hit-by-pitches; it is scaled like on-base percentage. wOBACON considers just the contact, so it excludes walks and hit-by-pitches. In other words, wOBACON can be used to evaluate the value a player brings per plate appearance where the ball is actually hit.

As we approach the halfway point of the season, it is a good time to reflect on how starters have actually performed. Fantasy managers can take the opportunity to analyze how their teams have performed, where they have excelled, and where they may benefit from trades. Let's use wOBACON to help with this process!

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wOBACON Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 26, 2022.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
7-3, 3.17 ERA, .272 wOBACON

Yu Darvish has been a fantasy asset throughout his career, albeit a frustrating one at times. His profile looks slightly different than it has in the past at a 7-3 record with a 3.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 20.2% strikeout rate, and a league-best .272 wOBACON. At this point in the season, can fantasy managers expect the veteran to duplicate his first half, or could he be a good sell-high candidate?

A few things stand out to me regarding Darvish's overall performance. The first is his low strikeout rate. Darvish has always been known for his strikeout prowess, but his current 20.2% strikeout rate is both low in general and also much lower than his 29.3% career mark. This may have to do with his decreased spin rates on his four-seam fastball and slider; Darvish was notorious for his spin-rate drops once the banned substance rules took effect.

The second is his batted-ball profile in relation to his batted-ball outcomes. His strong wOBACON and career-low .243 BABIP indicate he has gotten strong results on balls in play. However, his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 68th and 47th percentiles of baseball, respectively, and his 14.5-degree average launch angle leaves something to be desired. The fact that his career BABIP is .283 and his xwOBACON of .372 is much higher than his wOBACON indicates that he has gotten lucky this season.

Darvish has gotten good results this season, but his underlying numbers suggest that he has out-performed himself. His lower strikeout rate can potentially be explained by his decreased spin rates, and his xwOBACON, career BABIP vs. current BABIP, and 3.98 SIERA suggest that regression could be coming for him on batted-ball results. Darvish could still be a useful fantasy option even with regression, but I would definitely try to sell high on him at this time.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
7-3, 1.95 ERA, .282 wOBACON

Sandy Alcantara has been one of baseball's best starters so far this season, and that has manifested itself in fantasy as well. Despite playing for the Marlins, he has managed a 7-3 record with a stellar 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a .282 wOBACON. The only slight knock for fantasy is his 23% strikeout rate, but everything else Alcantara has done has made him a huge fantasy asset. Do his numbers under the hood support his performance?

Unlike Darvish, Alcantara's underlying numbers suggest his success has been legit. His entire Statcast profile is above-average, he has kept the ball on the ground with a 5.9-degree average launch angle, and he has kept hitters off-balance with his even mix of four pitches. Even more encouraging, his .311 xwOBACON, while still higher than his wOBACON, is in the top-eight percent of baseball.

Alcantara has never been thought of as a true fantasy ace because of the team he plays on and his lack of high-end strikeout numbers. However, he has taken everything else up a notch this season and has gotten fantastic results that are backed by underlying metrics. I think Alcantara will help many fantasy managers find success in the second half of the season.

wOBACON Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 26, 2022.

German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
4-5, 5.58 ERA, .418 wOBACON

German Marquez has managed to be a fantasy-relevant pitcher at times throughout his career despite pitching his home games at dreaded Coors Field. However, this season has been a career-low for him, as he has a bloated 5.58 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .418 wOBACON through 14 starts. Some fantasy managers are still trusting Marquez, as he is 32 percent rostered. Is there any hope that he can rectify things in the second half?

There are some signs that suggest Marquez has gotten relatively unlucky, but they may not be convincing enough. For instance, he has allowed hard contact (his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 20 percent of baseball), but he has a respectable 7.6-degree launch angle. He also has a career-high 1.56 HR/9 rate. It makes sense that he would allow HR at a high rate on balls hit in the air given the hard contact he allows; his 18.6% HR/FB% is the second-highest among qualified starters. That being said, I wouldn't expect him to allow that many HR with his current launch angle.

Further, his ERA indicators suggest that he has pitched better than his ERA suggests. Marquez has a 4.69 xERA, 3.99 xFIP, and 4.21 SIERA. The issue here is that those numbers still aren't great, and some of them don't take ballpark factors into account. Marquez will still pitch about half of his games at Coors Field, and he has been hit particularly hard there this season with a 6.70 ERA in eight starts.

There was a time in Marquez's career when I was hopeful that he could be a fantasy contributor, but that time has passed. There are some signs that he has gotten relatively unlucky compared to his peripheral numbers and wOBACON, but there simply isn't enough there to suggest that he could benefit fantasy managers. I would steer clear of Marquez for the time being except as a streaming option in favorable road matchups.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
2-6, 4.57 ERA, .379 wOBACON

I wrote about Tyler Mahle in Week 6 as a BABIP Dud. At that time, I considered him a buy-low candidate, as his underlying numbers suggested he had been the recipient of bad luck. Since then, Mahle has posted a much-improved 3.48 ERA over seven starts. With a less-than-stellar 4.57 ERA on the season and a .379 wOBACON that is 12th-highest among qualified starters, is there still time or reason to buy low on Mahle?

Fortunately, all signs point to yes. Mahle's numbers of late have obviously been better, but even his season-long underlying metrics look solid. He has a 3.31 xERA, 3.90 xFIP, and a 3.78 SIERA on the season. Further, his .368 xwOBACON is slightly lower than his wOBACON but is middle-of-the-pack, rather than one of the league's highest. Mahle's Statcast profile is slightly above-average across the board, adding more reassurance.

Mahle has continued to improve his peripheral numbers, but it still looks like he has room to improve. This presents a great opportunity to still buy low on him, given the strength of his underlying metrics. Despite his high wOBACON, I feel there are enough positive signs to suggest that Mahle can be a positive fantasy asset.

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