RADIO
Three weeks into the NFL season, the PPGA (points per game against) stat is beginning to stabilize and give us a better understanding of CB matchups. The truth is that defensive performance against a position is mostly driven by the receiver. For example, WR2s are only averaging 2.7 PPG against the Bengals. That is more because they’ve played three of the worst WR2s in the league during their first three weeks rather than the shutdown play of Darius Phillips. On the other end of the spectrum, Shaquill Griffin is not as bad as his PPGA would suggest. He just had to face off against Julio Jones and Amari Cooper in shootouts. With that said, some of the statistics appear to be meaningful and will hopefully turn out to be predictive as we gather more data (a lot of the predictive analysis from Week 3's article turned out to be true).
The following chart is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. The analysis below will help contextualize the chart, as in many cases a receiver did not score 100% of his points against the same player. However, the chart is a useful tool in getting a sense of the weakest links among corners.
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Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 4
WR/CB Matchups to Target or Avoid
WR1s against Atlanta have the best matchup in football right now. Davante Adams is in a dream spot in Week 4 if he's able to suit up. WR1s against Minnesota are also in a great spot. Will Fuller could go off as well.
The best matchup for WR2s so far has been against Seattle. The Dolphins' Preston Williams should take advantage against Tre Flowers this week. Shaquill Griffin is better than his stats suggest, but Seattle has been gashed by slot receivers too. Isaiah Ford is listed on the chart, but the more exploitable strategy could be using tight end Mike Geseiki in the slot against the smaller Ugo Amadi.
Buffalo has been shredded by slot receivers for three straight weeks. Taron Johnson is not having a good year and gets the sneaky Hunter Renfrow in Week 4. On the other side, Lamarcus Joyner has been shutdown against opposing slot receivers this year. Cole Beasley is not a great play this week.
Speaking of Jefferson, he gets an easier draw against the slot defenders of Houston while Adam Thielen has to deal with the shadow coverage of Bradley Roby, who has played well so far this season.
The Dallas-Cleveland game features a big-time matchup of Amari Cooper versus Denzel Ward. Cooper might be somewhat matchup proof, but Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and possibly Cedrick Wilson have easier draws. On the other side, Dallas is fresh off giving up 100 yards and three touchdowns to Tyler Lockett. Jarvis Landry could have his best game of 2020 this week.
It looks like Xavier Rhodes has regained his top form after a disastrous 2019. Allen Robinson gets a boost with Nick Foles at QB, but it’s a tough matchup.
In New York, James Bradberry has been lockdown this year for the Giants, which has led to WR2s getting fed against them. Robert Woods plays different alignments, but Josh Reynolds or Van Jefferson could be sneaky plays. The Giants haven’t been exposed by slot receivers since JuJu Smith-Schuster and Pittsburgh in Week 1. However, they’ve faced two below-average slot receivers since then. Cooper Kupp could have another huge game.
Jason Verrett is back for San Francisco and performed well last week. He was one of the best CB prospects of his draft class but has struggled with injuries throughout his career. WR2s and slots have it tough against the Niners because of Verrett and slot corner K’wuan Williams. I wouldn't feel great about a Hail Mary John Hightower play this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers CBs continue to stifle opposing receivers, most recently shutting down the talented trio in Carolina. Casey Hayward presents a problem for Mike “Jerome Bettis” Evans. However, Chris Harris Jr. could miss the game due to injury and Evans has played a lot in the slot this year. Whoever gets those slot targets will have an easier matchup than the outside receivers against the Bolts. It could be Justin Watson.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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